Atlanta Hawks: Five Difficult Games Decide Their Season
The Atlanta Hawks close their season with five tough games. Can they win enough to make it into the postseason?
It all comes down to one final week for the Atlanta Hawks. The next five games will decide if their season ends in the postseason or the lottery. The bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race is jam-packed and how it will shake out is anyone’s guess.
The Hawks currently find themselves in sixth place. They have a 1.5 game lead over the Chicago Bulls in seventh, a 1.5 game lead over the Indiana Pacers in eighth, and a two game lead over the Miami Heat in ninth. That’s right. Two games now separate the Hawks from the lottery. One half game separates them from fifth place. Uncertainty is fun, isn’t it?
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It shouldn’t really be a surprise that they have ended up in this position. The Hawks have been inconsistent all season. A hot streak is always followed by a cold streak.
Their 9-2 start to the season gave fans reason for optimism.
A December swoon that gave them a 15-16 record on the day after Christmas flushed that optimism down the drain.
Of course, as you well know, Atlanta’s journey would only get more confusing once the calendar flipped to 2017.
That’s when the trade rumors started. First, Kyle Korver was shipped off to Cleveland to join LeBron James‘ arsenal of lethal shooters. Many assumed that was only the first domino to fall. Sending your best shooter to the team that has knocked you out of the playoffs the last two seasons looks like the trade equivalent of waving the white flag.
Paul Millsap was the player everyone expected to be traded next. He’s clearly Atlanta’s most valuable asset. He’s a four-time All-Star and an elite player on both offense and defense. If a contender had acquired Millsap at the Trade Deadline, that would have shaken up the entire playoff race. Atlanta would have likely received a nice selection of young players or draft picks for Millsap’s services.
Then something funny happened. The Hawks started winning again. Seven wins in a row from Dec. 28 to Jan. 19 put an end to the trade talk. Atlanta pulled Millsap, Thabo Sefolosha, and Tim Hardaway Jr. off the market to set their sights on competing for a playoff spot.
An 11-4 January raised their record to 28-20 with 34 games left in the season. At the All-Star break their record was 32-24. Since then they’ve gone 7-14. The wheels have completely fallen off.
Injuries have contributed to their late season collapse.
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Paul Millsap missed eight games due to left knee synovitis. Kent Bazemore missed five games due to a bone bruise. Thabo Sefolosha has missed five games (and counting) with a nagging groin injury. The Hawks are banged up at the worst possible time. But that doesn’t matter now.
Dealing with injuries is just part of the deal. When high level athletes are competing, injuries are going to happen from time to time. The Hawks just don’t have the depth to combat losing three starters for a significant period of time. Especially when one of those three is their best player.
That’s how the Hawks have gotten here.
They’re 39-38 with five games remaining on their schedule. They’ll take on the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers (twice), Charlotte Hornets, and Indiana Pacers over the next week.
Two of those teams are clearly better than Atlanta. The other two will likely be fighting for their playoff lives and are definitely capable of beating the Hawks. The Hawks are 1-1 against Boston this season, 1-1 against Cleveland, 0-3 against Charlotte, and 1-1 against Indiana.
At the end of the day, the Hawks are what they were supposed to be. They’re not the top of the conference contender they appeared to be when they were 9-2. They’re not the bottom feeder they looked like during both their seven-game losing streaks. It’s boring to say, but they’re somewhere in between.
They’re a really good defensive team with a disappointing offense that often holds them back. In the modern NBA that’s a recipe for mediocrity. According to Basketball Reference, their expected win/loss record is 35-42. They have actually overachieved this season.
We’ve said it all season, the Hawks can beat any team on any night. They can also lose to any team on any night. It wouldn’t shock anyone to see Atlanta close the season strong with a 3-2 finish or even a 4-1 finish. It also wouldn’t be a shock if they lost all five games.
There are 77 games in the rear-view mirror. The back and forth nature of the season makes it feel like so much more. After all that, it comes down to five games in April. That’s what will decide Atlanta’s season, and possibly their long-term future.
A playoff run could lead to the front office bringing back this veteran core to keep their playoff streak going for yet another season. A trip to the lottery could be the jolt they need to begin a much needed rebuilding process.
Next: The Subtlety Of Millsap's Stardom
There’s a lot at stake. Stay tuned.