Thoughts from the First Half of the Season

First of all lets take a look at what has went right during the first part of the season in no certain order.

• 4-0 Season Sweep of Boston
• First win in Houston in 10 years
• went 2-1 in the State of Texas
• Joe Johnson and Al Horford named to the All Star Team
• Jamal Crawford is leading candidate for 6th man of the year
• The continued growth of Al Horford and Josh Smith
• A 21-6 record at Phillips Arena
• A 33-18 record overall and current 3rd seed in Eastern Conference

I was lucky enough on Wednesday night to attend, with some awesome fellow Hawks bloggers, a sit down question and answer session with the Hawks General Manager Rick Sund. One of the things that he really pointed out to us was that in fact the Hawks probably had exceeded his expectations a little and I would have to admit they have mine as well. Sund cited Jamal Crawford’s superb play as an example of how the Hawks have been able to improve over last year.

He told us after last seasons 4th seed finish that the goal for this season would be to make sure the teams that were behind us last season stay behind us and to make up ground on the three teams in front of us. The Hawks have clearly done that. Currently they sit in third place in the Eastern Conference standings only a game and a half behind Orlando for the second spot. If you are interested in more about the sit down session then be sure and check out Hawkst8talk’s excellent recap.

Overall it was a nice first half. Clearly in my opinion Jamal Crawford or Josh Smith are easily our MVP’s of the first half. Josh Smith has taken his game to a new level of maturity. While its true that the 20 foot jump shot is slowly creeping back into his game, he has completely scrapped the 3 point shot from his game. The results have been Josh playing his most efficient basketball of his young career. I used to cringe when Josh had to make a decision on the court but this season he has become one of the best passing big men in the league. Hats off to Josh Smith for realizing what he does well and trying to maximize it.

Al Horford also continues to make improvements and was rewarded with his first trip to the All Star game. While Horford’s numbers might not match up with someone like David Lee’s, however, I could make a case that he could be the most important player to the Hawks. He is one of the most important cogs on a contending team whose numbers would be a lot better if he were given more opportunities.

You can’t finish talking about what went right in the first half without at least mentioning the four game sweep of Boston. While it is true that Boston was without some key pieces for a couple of those games they were still huge for the growth of the Hawks. Its also true that meeting in the playoffs would be a completely different scenario, the Hawks still know that they can go into Boston and come away with a victory. To me these four games symbolize the first half more so than others.

Now a look at what went wrong:

• Orlando’s continued dominance over the Hawks
• Josh Smith didn’t make the All Star team
• At times too much Iso Joe
• At times Marvin Williams looks to have regressed
• Back to back losses against the Cavaliers after taking a lead into the 4th
• Joe Johnson turned down our extension offer and will become a FA.

It is really unfortunate that Josh Smith didn’t make the All Star team because I feel like his game has changed more than any other Hawk. Twenty foot jumpers aside he appears to be trying to do what the Hawks need him to do which is rebound, play defense, and give that all around game that he is so good at. I would have liked to have seen him rewarded but I can’t realistically complain a lot because the first place team in the Eastern Conference Cleveland only got one player on the All Star Team. Josh still complains to the officials too much and needs to improve his free throw shooting but those complaints hardly compare to the improvements he has made in his game this season.

I recently did a post examining Marvin Williams and his role for the Hawks. At times Marvin has appeared to be the odd man out and the emergence of Jamal Crawford has had a major effect on that. Marvin still at times doesn’t look for his own offense enough in my opinion. At times the Hawks need him to score. He has however accepted his role with the team and gives a great effort as a front court defender on most nights. I think we all would like to see some more improvement from Marvin in the second half of the season. He will forever be measured against who he is not due to being picked number two overall in the draft. That said, I do think he is still playing a critical and a necessary role with the Hawks. His situation will be interesting as off season evaluations are being made by the front office.

While the Hawks have displaced Boston and made the Big 3 into the Big 4 in the Eastern Conference they still have still struggled against Orlando and Cleveland. Orlando has dominated the Hawks over the course of the last two seasons and have left Hawk fans searching for answers. The Hawks took the lead into the fourth quarter twice against Cleveland but were unable to hold on either time. For a team that hopes to get to the Eastern Conference Finals they are going to have to figure something out against these two teams.

Which brings me to Joe Johnson. Now let me set the record straight that I am very much pro Joe. As I saw nothing positive about this franchise until we made the trade to get him. That being said there has been a portion of this season where I have been frustrated by Joe’s play. Statistically he has had another outstanding season. He was selected to his 4th All Star Game and I believe since Iverson is not playing that Joe should get the start. Back to the frustrations though, too often our offense is stymied by isolation sets for Joe. These don’t cause problems as long as Joe is trusting his teammates and will look to make the pass when the double team comes. Joe doesn’t appear to get the foul calls at the rim that some other players get and thus doesn’t get to the line as much as other superstars. Thus resulting in settling for long jump shots from time to time. Still he is nearly impossible to single cover and is the Hawks main offensive weapon.

Joe turned down a contract extension this past off season and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. No Joe is not a superstar like LeBron, Kobe, or D-Wade. However, what is he worth to the Hawks? Joe is probably has hit his ceiling in terms of talent so Hawk fans could probably expect a slow decline if he were to sign an extension. During the talk session with Rick Sund I came away with the impression that the Hawks are going to do whatever possible to re sign Joe this off season. Mike Bibby and Marvin Williams contracts are both structured to go down in value next year and Sund told us that was by design in anticipation of having to sign Joe.

My immediate question is should the Hawks give Joe the Max? I would say hopefully not but if we don’t some team out there undoubtedly will. Some team will miss out on LeBron and D-Wade, or Bosh and will turn to Joe. My gut is Joe will stay as long as Mike Woodson is still here and the Hawks make a comparable offer. I know that we have to give Al Horford an extension soon, but I feel like we still need Joe. We might not need him at the end of his next contract but right now we still do need him.

If Joe left then what? Who would the Hawks target as a replacement? I am no salary cap expert but I don’t see us having the money to get a D-Wade. What player would that leave us with? Ray Allen?  Jamal Crawford could start and we might be as good but you can’t convince me that we would be better. A sign and trade would be the best scenario but even then I have no idea who we could get back that would make us better.

I have enjoyed this season and last as the Hawks are relevant again. This pivotal off season makes me nervous because I don’t want us to simply subtract Joe and not adequately replace him and see ourselves slip back into the pack of the Eastern Conference.

This was a long post, the Joe Johnson part should probably have been one post itself. But as the title says this is my thoughts about the Hawks after the first half of the season. I would love some dialogue back. What do you think about Joe? If he left who should we target?