All the talk about Chris Paul possibly demanding a trade and the possibility that the Hawks might consider the move has got me thinking about something else. I have been thinking about what my central theme for this blog would be since I was allowed to take over for Kris, and I think those who have followed my posts on other websites such as Hawksquawk, you will know that I am a big proponent of building through the draft. So that would probably be my central theme. I feel that championship teams are built largely through the draft, and free agency is just a tool to use to augment what you have done via the draft.
The fact that Chris Paul might be available for the right price really seals this philosophy to me. Looking back at the 2005 NBA draft, a lot of the issues the Hawks face today could have very well been avoided at that time had they simply made the right pick. Now, I’m a Marvin Williams fan. I was back then. In fact, I was one of the ones who felt like his potential was too good to pass up even though I felt like Chris Paul had that “it” factor. Well, it turns out that I and several NBA GM’s would have been wrong in that draft, so this is being said all in hindsight.
Too often, I think NBA scouting departments and front offices get to the point on players where they start to nit pick about things, and when they do this, they ultimately convince themselves that the player isn’t quite as good as they initially thought. In Chris Paul’s case, 6 months before the 2005 draft, he was the clear cut #1 prospect in college basketball. When people watched him, he simply stood out. He had that look about him. He had that “it” factor. As the draft drew closer, the nit picking began. Is Chris Paul big enough? Would he be able to defend at the NBA level? Was he really the good character that he has been portrayed to being? The latter of which came into question when Chris, in a momentary loss of his composure, hit an opposing player in the mid section. His defense came into question when players like John Gilchrist of Maryland and Jarrett Jack of Georgia Tech were able to score on him. By the time the draft got here, all the nit picking over Chris Paul ultimately led to his fall on draft day. The player that was once considered the top prospect for that draft ended up going 4th in that draft, behind Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, and Deron Williams. The rest is history.
I’ve learned through my life that your first instinct on something is more often than not going to be right, and my first instinct on Chris Paul was that he was going to be a star point guard. That’s exactly what he has become, and the players that some considered as having a higher upside have ended up developing into role players, which is what Marvin Williams has become.
To me, this shows why it is important to have a strong scouting staff that can identify and project collegiate and international talent and build your team through the draft. The Atlanta Hawks could have had Chris Paul with the 2nd pick of the 2005 NBA draft. Not only would it have filled a need at the point guard spot, but they also would have gotten the guy who six months earlier was considered to be the best prospect in college basketball by far. A potential star player at a critical position to build the team around. Billy Knight had his own philosophy though, and while his philosophy brought some good players to the Hawks, it also caused him to miss in situations like this. The Hawks ended up getting a solid player, but they didn’t maximize the pick they had. The Hawks could have gone into that season with building blocks of a very young Josh Smith, Joe Johnson who signed as a free agent that summer, and Chris Paul. In hindsight, it would have been a recipe for success.
The Hawks have a long history of missing on their picks or not maximizing their picks in the draft. Pete Babcock missed so much that in the end, he didn’t trust his scouts or his instincts and ended up trading a pick that in hindsight, would have netted them a better player when they dealt Pau Gasol in the 2001 draft for Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and they then turned down an opportunity to take point guard Tony Parker with a late first round pick to draft Jamaal Tinsley for the Pacers instead. The trade ended up being an abject disaster for the Hawks, as they didn’t improve by getting Shareef, and Pau Gasol has gone on to become a top 15 player in the NBA.
I’m not an expert by any means, but if I were consulting with NBA scouting departments, here are a few things I would highlight.
- For the most part, draft the best player who is available and trust your instincts on that player. If there are two players who are equally rated on your board and one fills a need on the team, draft the one that fills the need on the team. Avoid duplicating positions unless there is a drastic difference between the highest rated player on your board and the next highest rated guy.
- Don’t overvalue size. More teams miss on first round draft picks because they went for a big player. Drafting a big that high is similar to drafting quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s so difficult these days to find a big man with true size that has the feet, athleticism, and coordinator to make much of an impact on the floor. Instead of putting a high value on size, put more of an emphasis on length and athleticism when it comes to the bigger players.
- Don’t undervalue traits that transition very well from the college level to the professional level. The traits that transition the best are rebounding and shooting. Typically players who rebound at a high rate in college become solid rebounders in the pros, and the same goes for players who are good shooters. Now, good shooting alone won’t get you there, as Hawks fans can attest to with Salim Stoudamire. Salim was a great shooter, but he didn’t do anything else on the floor. You have to be able to do something else on the floor, but shooting overall transitions very well from college to pros.
- Value your picks and don’t just give away late first round/early second round picks. These are picks that good scouting departments can find good players who can contribute depth your team. When you get good, this is how you build your depth. In the Hawks case, giving away the 31st pick is an example of what not to do, as they could have taken a player like Gani Lawal with that pick and gotten themselves a player who could have contributed as a back up power forward this year.
Even though this is an Atlanta Hawks site, the team that I will likely site the most as the model of how an organization from a scouting standpoint should be run is the Oklahoma City Thunder. I have been very impressed with the way Sam Presti and his scouting staff have done things. They got their star player to build around in Kevin Durant, and they have locked him up to a long term deal. They have also added a solid group of players around him through the draft. Sam has accumulated draft picks during his time as GM, and he utilized those picks to maneuver his way through the draft to get a highly rated player at a position of need in Cole Aldrich. He then took a high rated player and flipped him into a future first round pick. They were also the recipient of the Hawks misfortune by getting that 31st pick and getting a project big man that they actually had rated as a first rounder in Tibor Pliess. They have done well in the draft, and they have managed their finances well when it comes to the salary cap. You don’t see them going hard and heavy after the big name free agents on the market. This is a model organization for how things should be run, and I hope the Hawks look at them and take notes.