Andrew Melnick blogs for Howard the Dunk and he also contributes to ESPN 1080. Today, Andrew and I exchanged questions and answers regarding the upcoming Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic playoff series. You can see the questions he asked me and the answers I gave him here. In this entry, you’ll see the questions I asked him and his thoughts about the series.
WS: = William Sevidal (me)
AM: = Andrew Melnick (him)
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WS: I for one think the Hawks are still the underdogs and the Magic are the heavy favorites to win this series despite the Hawks winning the season series 3 to 1. Should there be any reason people should think otherwise?
AM: The Hawks are certainly still the underdog but I think that stems from their 44-win campaign and their terrible performance against the Magic last year rather than their play this season. The Hawks have played the Magic much better this season for one big reason – they’ve played them bigger. Inserting Jason Collins into the lineup has given them a huge frontcourt of Collins (7-0), Al Horford (6-10) and Josh Smith (6-9). Collins has been able to frustrate Howard into cheap fouls and stupid mistakes. If he can continue to do that, the Hawks have an excellent chance.
WS: Pretend you’re a scout for the Atlanta Hawks, how do you beat the Orlando Magic?
AM: There’s a couple of ways to beat this team. One way to go is by letting Howard do whatever he wants while limiting Orlando’s perimeter players and running them off the three-point line. The other is by hacking Dwight Howard, frustrating him and making him beat you at the line. The Hawks have done a little bit of both the season. I discussed what they do with Howard above but they’ve also used their size advantage to close out on Orlando’s shooters and it’s worked – the Magic have shot 22.6% from beyond the arc against the Hawks this season. If Atlanta can continue to limit Orlando’s three-pointers like they did in the regular season, they can continue to win close-low scoring games. The Hawks do not want to get jump-shot happy and get into a shootout with the Magic or it could get ugly.
WS: How intimidated are you about Jason Collins guarding Dwight Howard? What about Zaza, Horford, and Etan Thomas?
AM: I don’t think anyone is intimidated but everyone knows that Jason Collins is a professional defender. Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy praised his defense after Orlando’s regular season finale and knows that’s why Collins has survived in the league so long. Despite all of that, Howard has become one of the top two or three players in the game this year and is capable of dominating any big man in the league as long as his head’s on right.
If you’re a Hawks fan, I think you have to like the bodies they have to throw at Howard. Pachulia will work hard and frustrate opponents. Etan Thomas is, well let’s be serious; he’s there to hack Howard, which is exactly what Magic opponents should be doing. Howard becomes frustrated and in turn, makes stupid decisions.
As for Horford, I’d keep him off of Howard as much as possible. The Hawks have had a lot more trouble scoring this season and they can’t afford to let Howard get Horford into foul trouble. He’s too valuable to them.
WS: Atlanta has quite a few players that can have a huge game offensively; who do you believe has the best chance of hurting the Magic on offense?
AM: Horford. If Joe Johnson decides to make an effort to consistently get the hoop, obviously he’s the answer since he’s a very skilled offensively player, but he hasn’t done that. Horford will mostly be matched up with Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson. Orlando’s power forward combination has exceeded expectations and an argument can be made for Anderson being Orlando’s second best player over the last month or two, but Horford is simply a more skilled player. He can take Anderson down low and he can get open jumpers against Bass,
WS: Dwight Howard aside, who is the most important Magic player in this series?
AM: The answer to this question in regards to the Magic is almost always the same – Jameer Nelson – and I think the Hawks know it. That’s one of the reasons they acquire Kirk Hinrich. He’s a far superior defender to Mike Bibby and can make life difficult for Nelson. With all of the attention paid to Howard, Nelson is going to get open shots and be able to get to the hoop. He has to finish at the rim (he’s the king of missed layups), set up his teammates and take care of the ball. If he does that, the Magic will win this series.
WS: Who will hurt the Hawks more, Brandon Bass or Ryan Anderson?
AM: As I said earlier, despite all of the disappointments and all around poor play the Magic have gotten this season, their young Fours have been the bright spots (well, besides Howard). In this case, I’d say Anderson can hurt the Hawks the most because of his rebounding and his inside-out game.
Anderson is actually a very good rebounder (easily the second best rebounder on the Magic) and has shown it as of late, posting two double doubles in the last three games. The Hawks have outrebounded the Magic this year. We know Howard is going to get his but it’s up to Anderson to help even those numbers.
Anderson is an underrated post player but he can really hurt the Hawks with his shooting. Despite Rashard Lewis’ huge dip in production, the Magic starters have missed his ability to stretch the floor. Anderson gives Orlando that added dimension.
WS: Okay, finally, what is prediction for the series? Who wins and how many games will it take?
AM: Statistically, neither team has been as good as they were last year but the Hawks have made the proper adjustments to when it comes to the Magic. Larry Drew has this team much more prepared for Orlando than Mike Woodson did.
The Hawks are going to give the Magic a much tougher challenge but I think the Magic, behind Howard and Nelson (with some help from their shooters), will push the Magic to a six-game series victory.
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Thanks to Andrew for taking the time to answer these questions. Make sure to check out Howard the Dunk for more coverage of this Hawks/Magic playoff series. Also, give him a follow on Twitter while you’re at it, @HowardtheDunk.