Taurean Prince: Dark-Horse ROY Contender?

Taurean Prince isn’t supposed to win Rookie of the Year.

But, if he exceeds his average expectations, and the Hawks succeed in the regular season, he might just have a shot.

When the Hawks picked Prince with the 12th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, most just called him a DeMarre Carroll replacement. Many wrote him off as another wing role player, a la Matt Barnes or Jared Dudley. His ceiling is perceived to be some form of Kawhi Leonard-lite, an ultimate 3-and-D prospect who can take on a number 2 or 3 scoring role on a winning team.

Leonard and Prince actually have more similarities than you would think: neither was a top-30 player in their high school class, both were traded on draft day by a Mike Budenholzer-related front office, and neither one was, or is, expected to be one of the best rookies in his respective draft class. Leonard went on to average 8 points and 5 boards for a 50-win Spurs team, and was named to the All-Rookie First Team. Is it possible that Prince count match, or even succeed, those numbers, and be named Rookie of the Year?

Bovada.lv, one of the top online sports betting sites, places Prince 12th in 2016 ROY odds. Ahead of him are players like Denzel Valentine, who was picked two spots after him, and Thon Maker, who could be up to 23 years old when beginning his rookie season.

His game won’t excite the casual NBA fan: he doesn’t posterize 7-footers and his crossover moves are unlikely to wow anyone. His game revolves around using his physical makeup, skill set and hard-nosed mentality to the best of his ability. Usually, players whose games are reliant on hustle and basketball IQ aren’t heralded as much as the ones who can take over games through sheer athleticism.

Prince could be a special aberration from this way of thinking.

In a shortened Summer League session, Prince shined. Even after missing the first two games because the deal that brought him to the Hawks wasn’t yet finalized, he instantly came in and contributed. He averaged 13.7 points and 6 rebounds per game in three games, including a 21 point, 9 rebound showing against the Kings. In only 79 total Summer League minutes, Prince showcased the abilities that could make him a possible Rookie of the Year contender.

Prince has also gained the respect of his Hawks teammates, which will likely do wonders for his confidence as a newcomer to the league.

"Thabo Sefolosha told Chris Vivlamore of the AJC, “Taurean Prince has a body that is NBA-ready. I think he’s going to be able to provide some minutes fairly quickly”."

Coming from a seasoned veteran like Sefolosha, who will likely find himself in a position battle with the rookie, is a meaningful co-sign. Sefolosha will likely be somewhat of a mentor to Prince, who has a good chance of replacing the 32-year old.

Prince has one thing over most of the Rookie of the Year candidates: likely team success. You see, the worst teams in the league get the “best players” in the draft. This is not the case for Prince and the Hawks. The Hawks gave up an All-Star point guard in order to move into the lottery, a deal most teams couldn’t have made. Now, the Hawks have a wing stud that will only help them to more success. Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, and most of the other ROY contenders are coming to losing teams; they aren’t expected to win. If Prince heavily contributes to a Hawks team that has the potential to be a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference, there is little doubt that he could challenge the likes of Simmons for Rookie of the Year.

Over his four years at Baylor, Prince played with multiple NBA prospects, including Pierre Jackson, Cory Jefferson, and Isaiah Austin. In playing with these other talented players, Prince is used to situations in which he may not be the most heralded player on the court. This understanding of his role will make him more valuable than a one-and-done 5-star McDonald’s All-American who has always been the center of attention.

Prince has never competed with such a crowded, and talented wing position, though. Kent Bazemore and Kyle Korver are the returning starters, and both are likley to keep their jobs to begin the 2016-17 season. Sefolosha and Tim Hardaway Jr. are both expected to get rotation minutes, but could be possibly played out of the rotation by a hungrier Prince. The Hawks’ other first-round pick, DeAndre’ Bembry, will battle with Prince for minutes, but isn’t likely to beat him out for minutes, at least as a small forward. Barring injury, Prince could be anywhere from 3rd to 5th on the wing depth chart, depending on the coaching staff’s belief in THJ and Sefolosha. If the former Baylor Bear can fight his way into the rotation, or capitalize on a long-term injury, his ROY stock will skyrocket.

ESPN’s CARMELO player projection identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like. The service is a fun way to look analyze the different ways a young player could develop and impact a team. The projection service takes physical and statistical measurements and finds similar players in the league’s history.

Prince’s top three comparisons came out to be Gerald Henderson (62%), Justin Anderson (60%), and Earl Clark (53%). These comparisons aren’t the most flattering and it doesn’t equate to a player who has the ability to impact his squad as a rookie. If you scroll down to the number seven spot on the projection, there is a 48% similarity to Brandon Roy, the three-time All-Star whose career was prematurely ended by severe knee injuries.

Next: Are The Hawks Too Crowded At Wing?

If Prince can produce on the level of Roy in his rookie season (16.8 PPG, 4.4 APG, 4 RPG), along with the Hawks winning 50-plus games, not many other rookies will have the resume of Prince to win Rookie of the Year.