The Atlanta Hawks have a tough road ahead of them in the 2017 NBA Playoffs. First up, they have to get by the Washington Wizards. Just who are this season’s Wizards?
The Atlanta Hawks are in the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season. That’s all well and good, but the Mike Budenholzer era of Hawks basketball hasn’t been just about making it to the playoffs. Under Budenholzer’s leadership, the Hawks have started winning in the playoffs.
In 2014-15 they won two rounds before losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Last season they beat the Boston Celtics in the first round before losing to the Cavaliers again in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
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This season they will again look to advance at least one round. Standing in their way are the 4th seeded Washington Wizards. The Wizards are darn good and will be favored in this series.
That being said, this is a series the Hawks could absolutely win. The Hawks have played their best against playoff teams this season. They boast winning records against the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Naturally, their first playoff opponent would be one of the playoff teams that they don’t have a record of .500 or better against.
The Wizards have had an interesting season. Who are they exactly? Who should the Hawks look out for? How the heck could anyone stop John Wall?These are the questions that will have to be answered.
Playoff time truly is the most wonderful time of the year.
Washington Wizards, 49-33
The Wizards have had a crazy regular season. It wasn’t always a forgone conclusion that they would be a playoff team. In fact, they had a disastrous start to the season. They lost their first three games of the season and were 6-12 after a Dec. 2 loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
It was rough. I said on the Timeout With Ti podcast that the Wizards were a “dumpster fire” and needed to trade John Wall and rebuild. Oh, how stupid young people can be. The Wizards posted quite a dramatic turnaround.
Washington finished out the season 43-21 and locked down the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. Most of their success should be attributed to their sensational offense. The Wizards have the 7th rated offense in the NBA, scoring 111.2 points per 100 possessions.
They finished top ten in the NBA in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, and assists. They might not be as a proficient as the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets, but they still have a very good offensive attack.
Consider this passage from Scott Allen of The Washington Post during a stretch in February when Washington was on a hot streak.
"Since then, the Wizards have gone 26-8 and lost just five times while scoring at least 100 points, something they’ve done in 21 consecutive games. As CSN’s Chase Hughes notes, there have been only 10 other streaks of at least 21 games with 100-plus points since the 2000-01 season, and only nine if you limit the list to streaks within a given regular season."
When they score they win. The defensive end of the court is where their weaknesses are. They have the 20th rated defense in the league, allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions. Part of their defensive issues boil down to their lackluster bench.
Kelly Oubre, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jason Smith, and Brandon Jennings are fine role players, but they aren’t exactly known for their defense. With Ian Mahinmi out for the foreseeable future, Washington’s second unit will be left without a true rim-protector.
Three Key Players
John Wall
You knew this guy was going to be at the top of the list. In any other season, Wall’s play might have garnered him MVP consideration. Of course we’re living in a world of offensive explosion and Kawhi Leonard leading a team of role players to 60 wins, so Wall’s season has largely gone underappreciated.
If there was any question about his standing among point guards in the league, Wall answered those questions this season. Wall averaged 23.1 points and 10.7 assists per game on 45.1 percent shooting and 32.7 percent from outside.
His blend of scoring, passing, and defense is unmatched. Russell Westbrook and James Harden have the passing and scoring, but they can’t defend like Wall. Wall could very well lock down Dennis Schroder in this series, swinging things in Washington’s favor. He’s that good.
Bradley Beal
Wall’s backcourt partner had himself a breakout season. Bradley Beal has always had immense potential. His health has been the big issue. Coming into 2016-17, Beal had played in 63 games and 55 games respectively in the last two seasons. That’s 46 missed games over two seasons. This season he has finally stayed healthy. Beal also proved that he isn’t just a shooter; he’s an all-around scorer.
Beal averaged 23.1 points per game (tied with Wall for best on the team) on 48.2 percent shooting and 40.4 percent from three-point range. He’s arguably had a better offensive season than Klay Thompson. That’s how good Beal has been in 2016-17.
Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha will hope to slow down Beal, but the Hawks don’t really have a perimeter defender that can contain him. One area where Beal has significantly improved his game is getting to the free-throw line.
Beal gets to the line 4.4 times per night, the highest total of his career. A healthy Beal in this series that is active and attacking the basket makes the Wizards a heavy favorite, in my view.
Otto Porter Jr.
Otto Porter Jr. erupted this season. The fourth-year wing averaged 13.4 points per game on 51.6 percent from the field and 43.4 percent from outside. That’s outstanding production and efficiency from your fourth scoring option.
Porter is a key cog in Washington’s excellent starting lineup. Their five-man group consisting of John Wall, Bradley Beal, Porter, Markieff Morris, and Marcin Gortat was plus 8.6 points per 100 possessions when playing together this season. Porter’s emergence is a large reason why.
Porter’s outside shooting makes it difficult to pack the paint against Washington. If you clog the lane to stop John Wall and Washington’s bigs from scoring at the rim, he can zip a pass to the corner where Porter is usually waiting to calmly knock down a three-pointer.
Season Series
It’s difficult to take away much from the season series. Their first meeting came on opening night. That was all the way back on Oct. 27, with Atlanta winning 114-99. Both teams have changed dramatically since then.
Their second game came a week later on Nov. 4. That time Washington won 95-92. Again, these are not the same two teams that played back in November. Things have changed.
Game number three was played on Jan. 27. That’s the only game this season they have played with lineups closely resembling what they’ll have to work with in this series. Washington won that game in a blowout 112-86.
The Wizards shot 48.3 percent from field and 13-for-31 from outside. Otto Porter Jr. led the way with 21 points. John Wall added points 19 points, Bradley Beal dropped 15 points, and Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat each had 15 points.
It was a balanced effort that showed just how good Washington’s starting five can be when they all contribute offensively. The Hawks shot 36.1 percent from the field and 29 percent from three. It was a performance indicative of many Hawks games this season; their offense just didn’t show up.
Dennis Schroder shot 3-for-11. Paul Millsap shot 1-for-7. Tim Hardaway Jr. shot 4-for-11. The Hawks aren’t going to win many games when those guys don’t make shots.
Their fourth meeting this season came on March 22nd. The Hawks were without Paul Millsap, but still led at halftime. The Wizards outscored Atlanta by ten points in the second half to secure the 104-100 victory. Beal and Wall combined to score 50 points.
There you have it. Washington took the season series 3-1, but it’s difficult to know whether or not that actually means anything. Two of those games came in the first week of the season, one was a blowout early that led to limited minutes played by Atlanta’s key players, and the final game came without a healthy and active Paul Millsap.
The only thing we know is that we know nothing.
Conclusion
A meeting between the No. 4 seed and the No. 5 seed should be the most difficult series to predict. This series is no different. The Wizards will be the favorite. They have the better record. They have home-court advantage. They won the season series.
That doesn’t mean Atlanta doesn’t have a chance. Three wins against the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers in the final week of the season will send them into the playoffs brimming with confidence. Whether or not that translates to anything meaningful in this series remains to be seen.
I suppose I have to make a prediction. Sadly, I think Washington’s backcourt will be too much of a handful for the Hawks. John Wall and Bradley Beal are difficult to contain and the Hawks don’t have enough elite perimeter defenders to handle them both.
Washington’s bench upgrades take away the one advantage Atlanta should have in this series. Atlanta’s bench has played well in the last week, but the Wizards don’t have the same dismal bench they had earlier in the season. At best that matchup is a wash.
I think this series will go the distance. I think the Hawks will have the chance to win the series with a good performance in a Game 7. In the end I think homecourt advantage and Washington’s star power will be too much to overcome.
Next: Atlanta Hawks Player Appraisal: Moose
Prediction: Wizards in 7