Atlanta Hawks Key to the Series: Winning Transition
By Seth Kindig
While the Hawks have an elite half-court defense, the Wizards are especially effective in transition. How can the Hawks keep the Wiz in the half-court and minimize the effect of John Wall?
The Wizards have the 7th best offense in the NBA with an 111.2 offensive rating. But, how do they score? And where are they most effective?
According to stats.inpredictable.com, the Wizards drop to an offensive rating of 1.04 points per possession (PPP) after the other team scores. That ranked 15th in the NBA, an average half-court offense.
But, as you guessed, that means they’re especially effective in transition. The Wizards have the second-best offense at 1.15 PPP after a defensive rebound behind only the Golden State Warriors.
Why?
Because John Wall.
Every team in the NBA is at its most efficient after a turnover. John Wall’s speed with the ball can turn a defensive rebound into a transition situation faster than almost anyone in the NBA. Watch him do it in their last game against the Hawks.
If you stop the video at the four-second mark, you will see five pairs of eyes on Wall. Thabo Sefolosha leans a little too far in to help, and two passes later, Markieff Morris is shooting the most efficient shot in the basketball, a wide open corner 3.
The Hawks have one of the best defenses in the NBA (ranked fourth at 103.8 defensive rating). They especially excel where the Wizards are less effective, in the half-court. The Hawks have the second-best defense in the NBA after a made shot with an even 100 defensive rating.
But, the Hawks defense struggles where the Wizards excel on offense. The Hawks defense becomes average (ranked 14th at 108 defensive rating) after a defensive rebound by their opponent. Simply put, the Hawks are much better on defense after they score. Transversely, the Wizards are much better on offense after a defensive rebound. And this is the case for most teams.
But, no other top-15 defense has as big a difference between their defense after a made shot and their defense after a missed shot than the Atlanta Hawks.
Why is there such a stark contrast between the Hawks’ defense after a made basket and after a defensive rebound? As mentioned above, common basketball knowledge says that most teams will be better on defense after a made basket. The other team has to take it out of bounds while the defense can get back and set up.
One of the reasons the Hawks are ESPECIALLY deficient after a missed basket is because of the age of Dwight Howard. Dwight is not exactly as spry as he once was. On offense, the Hawks have encouraged him to crash the glass on every shot. This is a good thing. This is exactly part of the reason why Bud and decision-makers brought Dwight to Atlanta. He can take well-defended possessions and turn it into 2 points.
However, the downside of Dwight hunting for offensive rebounds is that, once the Hawks miss a shot, Dwight is not exactly blazing past everyone to get back into defensive position. If the offense is able to beat him up the court, they can put pressure on the rim without the threat of a shot blocker.
The Hawks are not going to give up potential offensive rebounds when Dwight is in the game. That is the primary advantage the Hawks have when Dwight is on the floor.
So, what’s the best way to keep the Wizards our of transition? Easy. Don’t turn the ball over and don’t miss on offense.
Kidding…
But seriously, the more shots that the Hawks can make, the less Wall can turn a defensive rebound into a transition situation. This puts a big emphasis on good shot selection for the Hawks. The Wizards know they are better in transition and will be looking to push in transition every chance they get.
Next: Hawks Playoff Preview: Round One vs. Washington
How well the Hawks play on offense (and conversely, how well the Wizards defend the Hawks) will be the determinants of how many transition opportunities the Wizards get.