Atlanta Hawks rebuild expected to take less than three years

We already know the Atlanta Hawks rebuild is in full swing. If there was any doubt, the fact they didn’t make Paul Millsap any contract offer and then chose not to match Tim Hardaway Jr.’s offer sheet should put those doubts to rest. How quickly can we expect this rebuild to happen?

The best way to grab a franchise player is typically through the draft. That means the team should bottom out and try to get a high pick. Atlanta Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk even said the same thing himself in a recent article via Shaun Powell of NBA.com

"“You really want to have three ways to get talent in this league: draft, trades and free agents. We’re going to use all three but it’s certainly easiest to get star players through the draft. It’s hard to trade for them and sign them. There’s all kind of ways to get a star. Maybe we look to package a few of those picks to move up.”"

It is an indication that the Atlanta Hawks should bottom out this year. The focus should be on their young core; Dennis Schroder, Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry and recent draft pick John Collins. However, as we’ve seen with teams like the 76ers, bottoming out and trying to rebuild through tanking can sometimes take several years. It appears Travis Schlenk isn’t planning to wait that long.

From the same article, Travis Schlenk had this to say:

"“We want to continue the success we’ve had, but realize we might have to take a step back,” Schlenk said. “We just don’t want to dip down 2-3 years in a row. We realize that young players in this league take their lumps but we don’t want to send the message that we’re (fine) with losing.”"

So he recognizes the need to build through their core but doesn’t want the process to take as long as “The Process”. If the best way to grab a star player is through the draft, the ideal strategy would be to bottom out this year. This makes some of the signings the Hawks made this off-season a little confusing.

Signing a guy like Dewayne Dedmon (player option on year 2) and re-signing Ersan Ilyasova (one year deal) points towards staying away from the bottom, especially in this year’s Eastern Conference. It allows for future flexibility but not much long-term value from those players.

That being said, Schlenk has only been on the job for about two months and this off-season is just the first step in the process (last time, I swear). In the grand scheme of things, Dedmon and Ilyasova aren’t making the Hawks contenders this year but could keep them from maximizing the 2018 draft.

So, what about next off-season?

There’s still plenty to look forward to in this Atlanta Hawks rebuild. They have five first-round draft picks over the next 3 years, including their own and assuming all incoming picks convey. They’ll also have their own second round pick in each of the next three drafts. That’s a lot of chances at landing some talent or packaging together to move up, as Schlenk mentioned above.

You could even make a case for using some of these assets to get off the bad contracts they still have, mainly Miles Plumlee ($12.5m each year for the next three years) and Kent Bazemore (about $54m total for the next three years).

As another positive, according to this ESPN.com article by Tim MacMahon and Bobby Marks, the Atlanta Hawks currently project as one of nine teams with cap space and could have about $40m in space to spend next year. With so many teams paying the luxury tax or over the cap, the Hawks are in a great position despite the fact this franchise has historically had a hard time attracting superstars (no, Dwight Howard does not count). Drafting and/or packaging assets in a trade to land a star appears to be a safer bet than signing one in free agency. Either way, it’s nice to have that flexibility.

Next: Hawks fortunes should change with culture adjustment

From 30,000 feet, the Hawks are in a solid situation as they start this rebuild but given the 2-3 year timeline given by Travis Schlenk, they can’t afford to make many mistakes. The Hawks have a history of surpassing expectations in the Coach Bud era. Seriously, who thought the Hawks would have won 60 games just a few years ago? It’s absolutely possible this rebuild moves quickly but it’ll take smart decisions and a little bit of luck to get there.