Soaring Down South
Fansided

Five bold predictions for the Atlanta Hawks 2017-2018 season

By Tyler Sellers

ATLANTA, GA - MAY 01: The Atlanta Hawks introduced their secondary logo on t-shirts that were distributed to fans during Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against Indiana Pacers during the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena on May 1, 2014 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - MAY 01: The Atlanta Hawks introduced their secondary logo on t-shirts that were distributed to fans during Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against Indiana Pacers during the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena on May 1, 2014 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Hawks
ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 22: Head coach Mike Budenholzer of the Atlanta Hawks looks on during the first quarter against the Washington Wizards in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena on April 22, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using the photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) /

5. The Atlanta Hawks Will Finish in the Top Ten in Defensive Efficiency 

In a recent preview on ESPN.com, expert analyst insider Kevin Pelton revealed projections that expect the Atlanta Hawks to be the worst team in the NBA in terms of total number of wins. By using a method referred to as RPM (real plus-minus), the Hawks accounted for 27 wins.

One possible factor which may have contributed to them reaching such a conclusion, is the RPM‘s blatant dismay for Dennis Schroder. Around this same time last year, Schroder was ranked as the 54th best point guard using that metric. Following a dynamic statistical performance in the playoffs during which he averaged 24.7 points and 7.7 assists, he still received a terrible ranking. In another recent article by ESPN, he was listed as the 23rd best for his position.

There is no question Atlanta will be bad, but the worst? That seems rather harsh. Especially considering the state of teams like the Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic. The Atlanta Hawks should be able to trump those clubs in wins, if only for a couple of reasons.

First of all, Mike Budenholzer is an incredible head coach. As determined as the front office could be to tank and lose at a rapid pace, it’s his job to try to win with whatever is given to him. The locker room isn’t going to roll over and accept a losing mentality either.

WASHINGTON, DC –  APRIL 19: Dennis Schroder
WASHINGTON, DC –  APRIL 19: Dennis Schroder /

What should really keep the Hawks competitive in games though, is how tenacious the defensive unit can potentially be. The roster is in fact lacking players with household names and capable scorers with offensive wizardry, but the squad is loaded with blue collar, hard hat, scrappy defenders.

Many Atlanta Hawks can be found near the top of the leader boards in defensive rating on NBA.com. Defensive rating is a statistic created by author and statistician Dean Oliver, that calculates how many points per 100 possesion’s a player gives up individually while on the court.

One of the newest members of Mike Budenholzer’s group was one of the greatest defenders last season at his position. Dewayne Dedmond, who played 76 games for the Spurs, was the 23rd most efficient player on defense overall. His rating of 95.7 was better than all of Rudy Gobert, De’Andre Jordan and Andre Drummond.

Both of the wings who will presumably be starting, Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince scored high on the list for defensive rating as well. Even as a rookie, Prince was already considered an elite defender based on his production last season. He finished the year in 27th place on the defensive rating chart. Bazemore wasn’t far behind, as the 36th best at checking his opponent. That’s 60.0 % of the starting lineup that are top 5 at their position on that side of the ball.

There is a weak link among the starters in terms of pressure and defensive intensity with rookie John Collins, who isn’t prepared to defend at the NBA level according to any scouting report. When evaluating the availability of toughness and stoppers coming off the bench, it actually gets even better.

Atlanta Hawks
ATLANTA, GA – MARCH 1: Dwight Powell /

The newly re-signed Ersan Ilyasova, causes more fits than anybody. Since the 2014-15 season, he is the league leader of drawing charges with 91. Considering he doesn’t get a ton of playing time, he absolutely dominates this category. The closest to catching him is Demarcus Cousins with 82 of them. He also gets involved in the most collisions with 149. There’s nobody ever even coming close to that figure. These stats on offensive fouls come courtesy of fivethirtyeight.com.

So, the Atlanta Hawks are fully capable of having a great season defensively. Head Coach Mike Budenholzer always gets results, he demands optimum effort from all his players. Over the past 3 seasons, the Hawks have not finished lower than 10th in defensive rating as a team. Atlanta may win more games than many people expect. In fact, if you were to ask coach Bud right now how well this years team can do, I’ll bet he actually tells you his group should compete for the playoffs in what is a watered down Eastern Conference.