Atlanta Hawks Trade Deadline Outlook

As the trade deadline approaches, what does the NBA Trade Machine tell us about the possible scenarios for the Atlanta Hawks?

The ESPN NBA Trade Machine is a fun little tool to play around with, even if just to see if trades that spin beyond the realm of reality would be successful. I took a few liberties to explore the Hawks’ trade possibilities based on need.

What does GM Travis Schlenk need?

Before we go into the possibilities, we have to wonder what road does Travis Schlenk want to take?

In the offseason, he did a salary dump to send Dwight Howard to Charlotte and made some other trades to acquire draft picks. This tells me he’s not willing to take on more salary at this time. But in the meantime, let’s take a dive into the trade machine and see what deals could be made.

Miles Plumlee

Miles Plumlee came to Atlanta this season as part of the Dwight Howard trade. Though many fans believe Dewayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala are more productive, Plumlee has gotten the majority of the playing time at center.

Are there any trade scenarios where Plumlee could be moved to open up more cap space? Yes, but some you may like and some you may not.

1. Miles Plumlee to the Cavs for Tristan Thompson – Personally, I hate this idea with the fire of 1,000 suns. Why you may ask? Atlanta sports has suffered enough with the Falcons losing Super Bowl 51 and Georgia losing the National Championship game to Alabama at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The last thing Atlanta sports needs at this time is a Kardashian curse, and it’s a real thing. Plus, the Hawks would be adding on salary, which I think is against Schlenk’s plan.
2. Miles Plumlee to the Wizards for Marcin Gortat – I like this one, but it’s likely unrealistic. Gortat would be a nice addition at the same value, but the Wizards would probably ask for more value, which is something Schlenk almost certainly wouldn’t be willing to do.

Trade Outlook: Plumlee stays in Atlanta

Unless Travis Schlenk finds a very good value, I don’t see how Miles Plumlee goes anywhere this season.

Dennis Schröder

My colleague Chris Guest wrote a piece proposing a trade scenario involving Dennis Schroder and Knicks Center Joakim Noah. Schroder’s season has been an interesting one. He’s putting up career numbers but his defensive play and leadership abilities have been put under scrutiny.

Unless Travis Schlenk is going to go after a point guard in free agency or the draft, there’s really no reason to unload Dennis yet. But if he were to, here are some possible scenarios:

1. Schröder to Hornets for Kemba Walker and Treveon Graham – Let’s face it, after the 38-point night by Kemba against the Hawks, the Hornets are going after big fish in any possible trades involving Walker. Charlotte owner Michael Jordan has already stated that he wants an all-star in return for Kemba.
2. Schröder to Mavericks for Devin Harris, Nerlens Noel and Salah Mejri – If Schlenk is looking to dump salary and pick up some expiring contracts, this would make sense. If a trade like this happens, it’s a telling sign the Hawks will go after Oklahoma PG Trae Young in this summer’s draft.

Trade Outlook: Schröder stays in Atlanta

I really don’t see a scenario where a championship contender will want to give up much for Dennis. On the Knicks’ proposal, I’m not comfortable picking up $38M for 2 years for a center who may not be healthy enough to contribute.

Kent Bazemore

It may be a surprise to some, but Kent Bazemore (along with Schröder) are putting up career numbers even though the eye test may not tell it.

Baze holds top-10 stats on defense even though his offensive numbers may not live up to his big contract.

Bazemore is a nice trade piece for a contending team, and the Cleveland Cavaliers were already rumored to have pursued him weeks ago with a trade scenario for Tristan Thompson. The trade machine approves this trade, but as I mentioned earlier, does Atlanta want the Kardashian Curse? The town’s suffered enough.

1. Baze back to Golden State for Shaun Livingston, Nick Young and Omri Casspri – This scenario would dump salary, pick up a decent contract (Livingston), and two expiring ones (Young and Casspi). The scenario according to Hollinger on the trade machine is a +2 win differential for the Warriors. Schlenk may have to part ways with another asset in order for this to go through.
2. Baze to OKC for Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson and Kyle Singler – With the injury to Andre Roberson, Baze would be a perfect pickup for a team contending in a Western Conference gauntlet. You might switch Terrance Ferguson out for one player and make it work. However, I’m thinking OKC won’t want to give up much to take on such a salary.

Trade Outlook: 50% out the door

If Travis Schlenk can find a deal that picks up expiring contracts and one valuable asset, I could see Kent Bazemore in another uniform after Feb. 8th.

Ersan Ilyasova

Ersan Ilyasova has put up good numbers for Atlanta in what is a contract year. He also has a very good value contract for $6M. Ilyasova can deny any trades he doesn’t approve of (he’s been on a lot of bad teams in his career).

1. Ersan to Boston for Shane Larkin and Aron Baynes – Larkin and Baynes have expiring contracts. This would be a scenario where Ersan goes to a competitor and the Hawks clear up cap room. I’d be surprised if Ilyasova turned down this trade, but I think Boston would want to ask for more in return.
2. Ersan to Minnesota for Namanja Bjelica – In looking at possible scenarios where Ersan goes to a contender, I don’t see how this would help the Hawks at all. Another expiring contract for Bjelica, who has been decently productive for the Wolves this season. However, this seems like a downgrade.
3. Ersan to San Antonio for Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans and Bryn Forbes – Ersan would fit in well at San Antonio as the Spurs run a similar style to what Mike Budenholzer runs in Atlanta. However, giving up 3 assets with expiring contracts may be a dream scenario and I don’t think Coach Popovich wants Ersan that badly.

Trade Outlook: 25% Ersan is traded

Coach Budenholzer pulled off a great trade in 2017 dumping Tiago Splitter to Philadelphia in exchange for Ersan, and his stock has certainly risen since then. Unless there’s a deal of value with a serviceable player with a small contract, the trade scenarios don’t look as appealing at this deadline.

Marco Belinelli

Marco has been shooting the lights out for the Hawks off the bench, and he may be a player that Travis Schlenk would be tempted to re-sign to a multi-year deal. If there was a scenario for Marco to go to a competitor, Golden State may be the best bet. However, chances would be that Atlanta would be picking up an expiring contract in return, such as Nick Young.

The contenders in this NBA season are teetering on the brink of the salary cap and luxury tax. Chances are they’re looking to dump depreciating contracts like the Clippers did with Blake Griffin earlier this week.

Trade Outlook: Marco stays in Atlanta

I could likely be 100% wrong on this and I’ll admit it if I am. But an asset like Marco can be re-signed at a reasonable price. It would seem foolish to take on salary or trade him away for expiring contracts that may hit free agency at season’s end.

Dewayne Dedmon

Another valuable asset that is tempting to part ways with, but for what? Dedmon has shown to be a serviceable big man off the bench who, in my opinion, should be playing a lot more.

1. Dedmon to Houston for Nene – Nene has 3 years left on his contract at a reasonable price. The Rockets could use a stretch five to complement the star-studded backcourt attack of James Harden and Chris Paul. Nene has shown to still be productive and comes at a reasonable price.
2. Dedmon to Brooklyn for Jahlil Okafor – If the Hawks wanted a dominating big man who can go to work in the post that they could sign to a long term deal, Okafor would fit that bill. Okafor hasn’t lived up to the immense hype since being drafted 3rd overall, though his scoring skills down low are undeniable. Dedmon would be a good building piece for the Nets as they retool.

Trade Outlook: High

Dedmon will most likely opt out of his contract at the end of the season, which could force the Hawks’ hand to make a deal to get some value out of him. In my personal opinion, he’s been an effective center despite his leg injury earlier in the season.

Do We Really Know What Travis Schlenk Will Do?

If this trade deadline is a quiet one for the Hawks, I won’t be mad. With three 1st-round draft picks coming up in the 2018 NBA Draft, the Hawks can be patient and only take offers they simply can’t refuse.

I know I’m likely in the minority on this, but our GM was part of the front office that was involved in creating the NBA’s most dominating dynasty in the modern era. You do remember he drafted John Collins, right?

The Hawks don’t have to make a trade at all and can wait for more long-term value with free agency and The Draft still remaining.

If the Hawks remain quiet in the deadline, don’t panic. In all of the trade scenarios I put forward, what’s the point of rushing into an ugly trade if the payoff won’t be that great in the future?

Keep calm and trust the process.