Tank Watch 2018: The Race For The First Pick
After ten years of competitive, playoff basketball, the Hawks are headed back to the lottery. A smart move in the eyes of most, it was just time for Atlanta to blow it up and start over.
The problem is that the Hawks aren’t alone. They sit at 18-41 at the break, tied with a staggering six teams with just 18 wins. The Magic (18-39), Suns (18-41), Mavericks (18-40), Kings (18-39) and Grizzlies (18-38) all sit at the bottom of the standings at All Star Weekend, with the Nets (19-40) and Bulls (20-37) not too far behind.
The race for the first pick is as heated as it will ever be. Taking a look at the teams above, it might get even closer.
Atlanta Hawks: Pick 1-3
In year one of rebuilding, Mike Budenholzer’s squad has shown fight and competitiveness that most bottom-feeding teams don’t. Despite this, the Hawks are headed to a top pick for the first time since 2007 when they selected Al Horford with the third overall pick.
According to Tankathon.com, Atlanta has the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule, behind only San Antonio and Washington. With the hardest schedule of any team contending for the top pick, the Hawks are the least likely of the bunch to pull away with more wins in the second half.
Fans’ dreams of Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley III or DeAndre Ayton are looking more and more likely to come to true.
Brooklyn Nets: Pick 5-9 (to Cavs)
The Nets lost seven straight going into the All-Star Break, and to make matters worse, they don’t have the right to their pick coming up in June, as the Cavaliers currently control it. Because of this, The Nets don’t have the motivation to lose like most other teams on this list.
In terms of players, D’Angelo Russell has been back from his injury for over a month now, and should be let loose off his minutes leash soon. Spencer Dinwiddie should continue enjoying a breakout season (possibly bolstering his trade value), and Jahlil Okafor will try to finally show some promise on his potential.
This team is more talented than the other teams here, and with a promising young coach (and former Hawks assistant) Kenny Atkinson at the helm, the Nets should perform well enough to leap out of the bottom.
Chicago Bulls: Pick 3-6
It’s weird to call 20 wins overperforming, but the Bulls were supposed to be far and away the worst team in the league. Chicago performed well in the middle of the first half, peaking with a seven-game win streak in December.
Since then however, they have played more true to form, losing nine of their last twelve entering the break. Still, high flyer Zach Lavine is back from injury and Lauri Markkanen is one of the better rookies in the league.
This team has more young, albeit unproven, talent than the Hawks, Suns and Mavericks, and should garner more wins than those teams in their final 25 games.
Dallas Mavericks: Pick 1-4
Outspoken owner Mark Cuban has been in a bit of hot water lately because of his comments on losing: Cuban was quoted as saying “Look, losing is our best option,” on a podcast with NBA legend Julius Erving.
While making him 600,000 dollars poorer, Cuban is right. He knows this team isn’t contending anytime soon, and losing now is the best way to win later.
The team traded Devin Harris, one of their best players, at the deadline for young sharpshooter Doug McDermott. Outside of future Hall-of-Famer Dirk Nowitzki and Harrison Barnes, the team is extremely young and raw, which usually doesn’t equate to wins.
The Mavs do have one of the best young players in the league with Dennis Smith Jr, but now is not his time to shine just yet.
Memphis Grizzlies: Pick 3-6
The Grizzlies are in a similar situation to the Hawks, as this season will end a long and successful era in Memphis. This season has been a mess thus far, with Mike Conley being out for the season, a head coaching change, and a twelve-game losing streak in November.
Targets are set to the top picks in the upcoming draft, which makes the non-trade of Tyreke Evans all the more head-scratching. While Evans is having his best season in a long time, face of the franchise Marc Gasol is having his worst.
Out of all the teams on this list, Memphis has the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule (behind Chicago), but have no motivation to win, which is an interesting combo. The Grizz are the hardest team of the bunch to predict, but they should fair a bit better than the other teams at the bottom of the standings.
Orlando Magic: Pick 4-8
The Magic got off to a 6-2 start for the season, turning some heads along the way. Since then, they’ve won just twelve games in over four months.
On paper the Magic have the most talent of the other teams on this list. Nikola Vucevic, Bismack Biyombo and Terrence Ross are all capable players. Also, the talented Aaron Gordon hasn’t dressed since January 27th but is expected to join the team after the break.
If I had to bet on a team to make a 2017 Miami Heat-esque playoff run, it’d be the Magic. They’ve shown they can win early in the season, and they could possibly do it again.
Phoenix Suns: Pick 1-3
The Suns are nowhere near the playoffs. Tied with the Hawks for the worst record, and tied with the Grizzlies and Nets for the longest losing streak (7) at the break, the Suns are arguably the least-talented squad in the league.
Devin Booker aside, the Suns roster is a mess, and the deadline trade for Elfrid Payton may help in the future, but certainly won’t this season.
It’s obvious the team is in a lose-now state, especially after the buyout of Greg Monroe and rightfully so.
The Suns have the best chance of stealing the top pick away from the Hawks, and with the fourth-hardest strength of schedule left, they just might.
Sacramento Kings: Pick 2-4
Last but not least are the lowly Kings. The team hasn’t made a playoff appearance since the ‘05-’06 season, and haven’t won more than 33 games since ‘08.
This new rebuild started mid-season last year, after trading DeMarcus Cousins to New Orleans. They made some interesting moves to say the least last offseason, signing veterans like Vince Carter, Zach Randolph and the recently traded George Hill. These signings hasn’t done much to their win column, and might even be stunting the growth of their young talent.
As for this year, they have no motivation to win, and probably won’t be bale to win that much either. Still, they have a nice young coach in Dave Joerger who should survive the rebuild, and might lead them to a win or two down the stretch.
Conclusion
The Hawks picked a rough year to go for the first pick. With the hardest strength of schedule left of all the tanking teams, Atlanta should still be considered the favorite to land the number one overall pick. Phoenix has the best chance to steal the title of worst record, but a well-timed losing streak from any team might be enough to take the pick.
Of course with the lottery, the first pick is open for anyone, but in each of the last three seasons, the team with the worst record has won the top prize.
Next: Atlanta Hawks Mock Draft 1.0
The Hawks currently have a 22.4% chance at getting the first pick and a 60.1% chance of a top three pick, according to Tankathon.com. The good news is this draft is considered to be a very deep and talented draft, which bodes well for Atlanta, as well as the other teams on this list.
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