With the 2017-18 season (mercifully) over, the Atlanta Hawks finally know exactly where 3 of their 4 picks will go. Though the franchise lost two tiebreakers in terms of draft positioning, the ping-pong balls might still be on the team’s side come May 15, when the NBA Draft Lottery occurs.
Since the team’s draft positioning is almost set, it’s time to fire off the team’s final mock draft before the lottery occurs, as the team shuffles down to its lowest positioning for their own pick of any of our previous mock drafts.
We have provided numerous non-lottery options for the Hawks, and we have also given a few possibilities for the team’s likely Top 5 pick. With the 2017-18 NBA season and the NCAA Tournament both in the rearview mirror, let’s see who the Hawks might select with our most recent Mock Draft.
When it comes to top-five draft picks, the rule of thumb is usually look for upside and take the best player available. The Hawks (and many other teams) have gotten into trouble by selecting based on positional need rather than on talent, so with their own first round pick in the 2018 draft, they should not fall into that trap and select Marvin Bagley III out of Duke.
Bagley is an explosive athlete, and his 6’11”, 234-pound frame is already NBA-ready. He could do with a little more muscle mass, but that will come after a full NBA season and offseason and his broad shoulders invite more growth.
There are definitely some questions about Bagley’s game on both ends of the floor, as the NBA will be the first time that his singular talents will not allow him to dominate players physically – something that might hurt his ability to contribute out of the gate.
Though he drilled 39.7 percent of his deep tries during the college season, he only attempted 58 total, which is quite a small sample size. His free throw numbers might be more indicative of his jump-shooting ability – where he only shot 62.7 percent on 209 total tries at the charity stripe. Via the eye test, his shot looks okay, if a little bit gangly, as if his long arms don’t seem to be working in concert with the rest of his body.
Still though, his numbers were just immense as a Blue Devil, as he finished with per-game averages of 21 points on 64.3 percent true shooting with 11.1 rebounds, a sky-high 30.6 Player Efficiency Rating as well as 6.9 win shares. He did all this work on 26.3 percent usage rate, meaning he is comfortable with the ball in his hands and the offense could run through him in the high or low post.
Bagley also plays with tremendous energy, something that could become infectious for a young Hawks team that will be looking to each other for guidance. His rebounding ferocity will be particularly important, and pairing him with John Collins would create an impenetrable wall of two supremely gifted athletes who can bang inside, make wild plays with their innate athleticism, space the floor if necessary and just generally wreak havoc on both ends of the floor.
The real question mark for Bagley is his defense. In 1114 minutes played at Duke, Bagley only notched 27 steals and (more concerningly) 29 blocks. His block rate of 2.6 percent was criminally low for a player with his physical tools (specifically that 7-foot wingspan) and the same could be said of his paltry 1.4 percent steal rate.
Though his defense is concerning, the Hawks should not hesitate to select Bagley if their pick lands at 3 or 4, as he is one of the best players in this draft class not named Ayton or Doncic. The choice between Jaren Jackson Jr. and Bagley is between what the team wants to value in the future: Bagley’s immense offensive upside and explosive, ferocious playmaking or Jackson’s striking physical tools and defensive upside.
Other Options: Jaren Jackson Jr., Trae Young, Wendell Carter Jr., Mohamed Bamba
Though selecting Zhaire Smith out of Texas Tech here would be favorable, it’s doubtful that an electric athlete like Smith will still be on the board when the Hawks choose their 2nd of 3 first-round picks in the 2018 draft.
Instead, the team should reach a bit and select Khyri Thomas out of Creighton. Thomas projects to be a rock-solid defender and a plus three-point shooter, typifying the switchable, three-and-D profile that most NBA teams are looking to personify in the pace-and-space era.
Thomas’s defensive acumen would also buoy a Hawks team that finished with the 21st-ranked defense in the 2017-18 season – though they looked much, much worse than that at times. Thomas’s length (a roughly 6’10” – 7’ wingspan) and ball-hawking defensive style would greatly benefit Atlanta’s porous perimeter defense, especially when combined with a healthy DeAndre’ Bembry, who profiled to be the Hawks’ best wing defender before missing more than 55 games with various ailments and injuries in the 17-18 season.
In 3 NCAA seasons, Thomas had averaged a 99.7 defensive rating with remarkable consistency – his highest defensive rating was this season at 100.9.
On the offensive side, Thomas projects to be a stellar shooter, as he shot 40.6 percent from deep in his 3 college seasons on a 38.5 percent three-point attempt rate. His offensive rating also rose in each of his three seasons at Creighton, popping up to 122.4 in his final season to go along with a career-high 3.1 offensive win shares.
Thomas would immediately upgrade the Hawks’ wing rotation and could also serve as a replacement for Kent Bazemore at two guard if he were to leave via trade – though his salary might be prohibitive.
Other Options: Troy Brown, Shake Milton, Keita Bates-Diop, Jerome Robinson
Though not a high-flying, quick-twitch athlete, Jalen Brunson is a proven winner, having piloted not one, but two Villanova teams to national championships in college (2016 & 2018).
His less-than-ideal athleticism might get him into trouble against at the highest levels in the NBA, but his basketball IQ and team defense are off the charts. It’s also clear that Brunson’s tremendous pedigree and high floor would make him an excellent immediate contributor on the Hawks’ second unit.
Atlanta lacked a strong option at backup point guard in the 2017-18 season, as the team trotted out second-year players Malcolm Delaney and Isaiah Taylor as well as rookie G-League superstar Josh Magette.
Each of these players had their moments, but Taylor in particular lacked the playmaking that a backup point guard has to offer off the bench. Brunson logged at least 100 assists in each season he played in college and he was top-10 in assist percentage in his final two seasons in college.
Brunson was also a knockdown three-point shooter in college, shooting 39.3 percent from downtown on an impressive 39.6 percent three-point attempt rate. Brunson knows how to run a pick-and-roll and his strong decision-making in the half court would be a real boon for the Hawks on offense.
There is also the distinct possibility that Dennis Schröder is not long for the team (especially if the rumors are true and Coach Bud is also on his way out the door), which means Brunson could test his mettle as a starter sooner rather than later.
Other Options: Omer Yurtseven, Bruce Brown, Gary Trent Jr., Moritz Wagner
Though he’s tumbled down our draft board since we had him going in the early 20s in our first mock draft, Rawle Alkins is still a tantalizing prospect to take with the Hawks only second round pick in the 2018 draft.
Alkins has a chiseled, NBA-ready physique and he is capable of producing highlight plays with regularity, like this one during the Pac-12 Tournament:
The Hawks should confirm that Alkins is healthy, as he missed considerable time in the 2017-18 season due to a broken foot. If there are no red flags on that front, Alkins could prove to be a valuable asset for the team – no matter where they take him.
Alkins is a strong scorer, but he played 300 less minutes in his sophomore season due to that foot injury, as his shooting numbers suffered as a result. Even in his fully healthy freshman season, his true shooting percentage of 56.6 percent would’ve been right around league average in the NBA.
Still though, in his sole healthy college season of 2016-17, Alkins slashed 46/37/73 percent while scoring 10.9 points a game with 4.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists
Next: 15 Non-Lottery Draft Options for the Hawks
The major concern for Alkins is his defense, where he often was lost or out-of-position on a team that didn’t seem to have the strongest coaching. However, with a 6’9” wingspan and that powerhouse frame, Alkins should be able to translate into a switchable team defender even if he doesn’t project to be a lockdown player on that end.
Other Options: Chandler Hutchison, Melvin Frazier, Landry Shamet, Hamidou Diallo