Soaring Down South
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Atlanta Hawks NBA Draft Lottery Preview

By Chris Guest

ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 26: General Manager Travis Schlenk of the Atlanta Hawks introduces new draft pick John Collins during a Press Conference on June 26, 2017 at Fox Studios in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 26: General Manager Travis Schlenk of the Atlanta Hawks introduces new draft pick John Collins during a Press Conference on June 26, 2017 at Fox Studios in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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OMAHA, NE – MARCH 25: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Duke Blue Devils (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
OMAHA, NE – MARCH 25: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Duke Blue Devils (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

#4 Overall Pick
8.5% odds
Best Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Marvin Bagley III
Other Possibilities: Trae Young / Mo Bamba / Mikal Bridges

As you can see, selecting 4th for the Hawks has a very low probability. However, stranger things have happened.

For the most part, everything said about selecting third overall applies to this spot as well, though one less gifted prospect will be available. All signs point to Jaren Jackson Jr. being the third-rated prospect in this draft (despite the frankly insane production of Bagley).

This is where the Hawks are currently slated to pick after they lost the tiebreaker with the Mavericks, and selecting Bagley here would bring in one of the highest-profile prospects the Hawks have had since Al Horford.

Again, though his upside is seemingly less than some of these younger players, the all-around polish of Mikal Bridges would be tempting at this spot – or any spot beyond the Top 2.