On the long road to a rebuild, the Atlanta Hawks will likely be one of the worst teams in the league next year. But how many games will they win?
In year two of what is expected to be a long and arduous rebuild, the Atlanta Hawks picked up multiple important players this offseason – both for the short- and long-term development of the team.
Steady, seen-it-all veterans like Jeremy Lin and Vince Carter were added alongside younger vets like Alex Len and Justin Anderson to new franchise cornerstones such as Trae Young and Kevin Huerter in what was one of the most action-packed and entertaining Hawks offseasons in recent memory.
Of course, the offseason is only a prelude to what is the main course: the 2018-19 NBA regular season.
The Atlanta Hawks are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league next season, as Las Vegas oddsmakers have predictably proffered up the lowest over/unders for wins in the league for Atlanta next year at 23.5.
That seems pretty accurate, but let’s dig deep on the probabilities for wins for next year for the Hawks:
More than 40 wins: 0% chance
The Hawks will almost certainly be way, way out of the playoff race unless some of the young players take off far ahead of schedule. While not out of the realm of slim possibility, there is almost no way the Hawks will win more than 40 games.
35-40 wins: 2% chance
Sure, the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was last year, as the great migration of talent from East to West continues unabated now that LeBron James is on the Lakers.
A two percent chance to sniff upper 30s in wins might seem like a stretch (sadly), but let’s stay positive and think that the Hawks have a two percent chance to challenge Detroit or Charlotte for the 8th spot next year.
30-35 wins: 15% chance
While getting a little more realistic with the win totals here, this is still a rather high bar for a Hawks team that will trot out only 6 players with more than 3 years of NBA experience.
Again, if these young Hawks gel more quickly as a unit than is expected, a win total in this range is not out of the question, but at this juncture it seems a bit far-fetched.
25-30 wins: 50% chance
Though this is higher than the over/unders provided by Las Vegas betting institutions, this seems like a likely outcome for the 2018-19 Atlanta Hawks.
Last year’s team, which was most likely a worse team than this one in terms of talent, dragged itself to 24 wins on the back of some late-season fireworks from Taurean Prince and the dogged focus and coaching talent of Mike Budenholzer.
With Prince returning off the back of a breakout latter portion of last season, as well as multiple high-upside younger players joining the fold, the team clearly upgraded its talent coffers this offseason.
Due to these new additions, as well as the continued growth of Prince, John Collins and Tyler Dorsey, a win total between 25 and 30 is a fairly likely outcome – even if tanking takes hold of the team hard down the home stretch of next season.
20-25 wins: 33% chance
Here is where Vegas, and the NBA community at large, believe the Atlanta Hawks will finish in wins.
Certainly, the Hawks will not be a good team next year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be eminently watchable.
They went from one of the most ill-fitting and formless rosters in the league in 2017-18 to a team with an identity and a roster full of interesting and supremely likable players – both old and young.
Even if they don’t surpass this tier of wins, this Atlanta Hawks team will still etch its name in the history books as the team that turned the page on the final remnants of the previous regime. At this point, only Prince, Kent Bazemore and DeAndre’ Bembry remain.
So there you have it. The most likely outcome is that the Hawks finish between 20 and 30 wins next year, with the smart choice being somewhere around 24 – right where they were last season.
Sure, there will be growing pains, but all good things take time. The 2018-19 season can’t get here soon enough!