Game Theory Podcast Weighs in on Atlanta Hawks Over/Unders

The terrific Game Theory Podcast hosted by Sam Vecenie of The Athletic debated taking the over or under for wins on the Atlanta Hawks in a recent episode.

The Atlanta Hawks were slated for 23.5 wins by Las Vegas oddsmakers last month, and all the usual kerfuffle broke out about whether that was too low or too high.

Fittingly, we also explored that question ourselves with a dissection of how many games the Atlanta Hawks would be likely to win in the 2018-19 season.

In a recent Game Theory Podcast, which is hosted by Sam Vecenie of The Athletic and featured frequent guest Dieter Kurtenbach, the two delved into the over/under for the Hawks, and whether or not they believed it was fair, too low or too high.

The pair were split, as Kurtenbach believed that the additions of Jeremy Lin, Vince Carter and Justin Anderson coupled with the baked-in improvement of incumbent Hawks John Collins, Tyler Dorsey and Taurean Prince should be enough to push the Atlanta Hawks above that estimated 23.5 win total that Vegas put forth.

We can certainly see where he’s coming from. The 2017-18 Hawks were one of the most listless and shambolic teams on the court, they actually had a worse record than their net rating would indicate (played like a 27-win team but won only 24 games) and they were generally a mish-mash of rookies, two-way contracts and cagy veterans – at least to start the year.

Sam Vecenie, the podcast’s host, disagreed as there is a lot of upheaval surrounding the Atlanta Hawks going into next season.

For one thing, the Hawks have a new coach in Lloyd Pierce, and we have no idea how exactly his system and coaching style will mesh with this almost completely new roster. We can assume, however, that Pierce will be looking to implement a strong defensive identity – even though the Hawks’ personnel might not necessarily merit that approach.

It’s quite safe to assume that the Hawks will be quite bad on defense, as many of the new players brought in – specifically the three first-round picks – do not project to be terrific defenders.

With so many mysteries surrounding how all of these new pieces will fit together on the Hawks, Vecenie opts for the under, though he is not confident in that choice and says to stay far, far away from betting on the Hawks over/under next year.

No matter what, the Atlanta Hawks should be far more watchable and interesting than they were last season – even if their over/unders will be a source of constant consternation throughout the year.