A look ahead to the 2018-19 season, which is only 4 days away, and a prognostication on how the Atlanta Hawks could miraculously make the 2019 playoffs.
After 10 straight seasons of playoff basketball for the Atlanta Hawks, the wheels finally came off last year.
The Atlanta Hawks won just 24 games en route to the 3rd overall pick in the 2018 Draft. Despite the record, the season could be seen as a success from a rebuilding outlook, as young talents John Collins and Taurean Prince showed their potential on the court, and they were able to acquire three first round picks as well.
Usually, year two of a rebuild is a time for an organization to see what kind of talent they have and look to develop said talent instead of winning now and making the playoffs.
That being said, there have been a few examples of teams exceeding beyond their rebuilding tag, some even making the postseason.
The Hawks would need breakout campaigns from a handful of their youngsters and solid seasons from their veterans to make a playoff push, and while that’s not too much of a stretch, there is one major factor helping them: The Eastern Conference is historically weak.
The superstars of the NBA have been on a migration to the West lately, with Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James all traveling westward in the past few years. This has created a competitive imbalance between conferences the league hasn’t seen in quite some time.
The Atlanta Hawks are slated to be among the worst teams in the league, even having the worst chance of making the playoffs in the East, just a 0.3% chance, according to ESPN’s BPI.
Those odds are too low in the diminished East. They have so many unproven players that it’s hard to gauge how good they will actually be. With the conference as weak as it is, they honestly won’t need to be exponentially better than last season.
We’ve been over how the Hawks can be good at length here at SDS and it’s time to look how they could once again be playing in the playoffs thanks to little competition.
Eastern Conference Outlook
There seems to be a consensus top three teams in the East: the Raptors, Celtics and Sixers. These teams are talented across the board, and we won’t cover them here because they are virtual locks to make the playoffs.
After them there is a definitive drop-off. Next in line seems to be the Pacers. They surprised everyone last season, finishing with 48 wins in their first season sans their former face of the franchise, Paul George.
A repeat of last season’s success is reliant on Victor Oladipo proving last year wasn’t a fluke, and Myles Turner continuing his rise into the group of elite big men. ESPN has them sitting at a 98.7% chance at postseason play, but they aren’t quite a lock because this squad hasn’t had lasting winning seasons just yet. Pencil them in for now… just maybe don’t use a pen.
The Wizards and Bucks should have enough star power between them to each make the playoffs. MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo carried his team to the seventh seed last year, but the expectation is new coach (and familiar face) Mike Budenholzer is an improvement over the coaching circus the Bucks had last year.
Washington is once again led by their dynamic back court of John Wall and Bradley Beal, with Dwight Howard joining the fold as well. The problem with these star-led, top-heavy teams is injuries. One bad injury to any of the names above could tank their entire playoff hopes.
Eastern Conference Outlook, Part 2
There’s another drop off here, with the next team probably being Miami. The Heat have too much money going around not to try to make a real push, and their name is still at the top of the Jimmy Butler sweepstakes. They are probably one of the bigger boom-or-bust teams as it’s believable that they could be among the best as well among the worst in the East.
The Pistons seem like they should be in the star-commanded teams like the Bucks and Wizards, but they have such a weak supporting cast. Even if Andre Drummond builds off his All-Star season, Blake Griffin is a liability to get hurt and miss a large chunk of the season at some point, and Reggie Jackson can’t carry the offense by himself. They have a few intriguing young players, but they probably won’t help in any major way this year.
The Nets are an interesting team. They’ve been rebuilding forever yet still seem a year or two away — thanks to the foolish and ill-fated Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trade in which Celtics GM Danny Ainge swindled the Nets out of a zillion future draft picks.
Like the Atlanta Hawks, however, the Nets could overachieve in the win department thanks to weak conference play. D’Angelo Russell is primed for a Most Improved Player Award run, and it’ll be interesting to see how Kenneth Faried does in a new environment. Spencer Dinwiddie was a breakout star last season and is only going to get better. They don’t have a true star, but they’re young, deep and still in the running for Jimmy Butler. Could be a sneaky playoff pick.
The Hornets have been stagnant for years now, and their bad contracts are holding them down from getting any better. Kemba Walker is a true star, with little help from the rest of the roster. Malik Monk is the most likely to improve after a rough rookie season, and this year’s first round pick Miles Bridges put up 15 a game during summer league. Even then, Kemba would have to have a MVP-caliber season to lead this team to the playoffs.
Eastern Conference Outlook, Part 3
The Cavs are heading into their second era without LeBron, and besides drafting Kyrie Irving, their first era didn’t work out so well. They do have 5-time All-Star Kevin Love at the helm this time, and maybe he’ll finally look more like the K. Love we saw in Minnesota. They have a few other offensive weapons left over from their four straight Finals runs like J.R Smith, Kyle Korver and Tristan Thompson, among others, and have Collin Sexton and Larry Nance Jr. who both have potential for being above-average starters, or more. Still, a lot would need to go right for Cleveland to be playing deep into April.
In the cellar with the Hawks are the Magic, Knicks and Bulls. The Knicks could be in the conversation for a low seed if they weren’t without their star big man, Kristaps Porzingis. He has no timetable to return and might not see the court this season, meaning the Knicks likely won’t see the playoffs either.
The Magic’s roster is a mess. Jonathan Simmons is probably their best player, but Mo Bamba could easily overtake that mantle in his rookie year. They’re a few years away.
Chicago will also be dealing with a major injury to their best player, Lauri Markkanen, who is slated to miss at least the first month of the season, and likely won’t get enough out of their highly paid free agents (Jabari Parker, Zach Lavine) to make a playoff push.
This just leaves the Hawks.
So, after all this, let’s say the Raptors, Celtics, 76ers, Bucks, Pacers and Wizards all make the playoffs. You could make a case for any of the teams left making one of those final two playoff spots. So could the Atlanta Hawks make a miraculous run into one of these final spots? Surprisingly, yes.
Last year, the Wizards locked up the eighth seed with 43 wins. We can expect this number to go down with the East being so top-heavy, Toronto, Philly and Boston should all rack up at least 55 wins, probably more, by beating up on the lower 12 teams.
Even if we say a team has to win 40 games to make the eighth seed this season, that would be an increase of 16 wins for the Hawks.
Here’s how they can do that.
How the Hawks Can Make the Playoffs
It all starts with John Collins and Taurean Prince. They are the young players who have already showed their potential. If TP plays like he did in the final two months of last season, wherein he averaged 19 points on 45% shooting, he’ll be an All-Star.
Collins was arguably the best player statistically in Summer League this year, and will look to take his athletic scoring to the next level this season. If he’s able to add the three pointer he teased last season, he could be their best player by season’s end.
The trio of rookies all need solid output, and Trae Young getting off to a hot start is a near necessity. Hopefully Summer League and preseason action will be enough for the college star to adjust to the pros.
Kevin Huerter has a pro-ready jump shot, and Omari Spellman provided a few highlight plays since being drafted to show that he could be a steal after being drafted 30th overall.
The vets would also need to step up. Kent Bazemore is a solid two-way wing and is coming off his best season as a Hawk. Dewayne Dedmon is a quality starting big man, and offseason acquisitions Alex Len and Jeremy Lin can be difference-makers on both sides of the court.
The Atlanta Hawks are sneaky-deep beyond the big-name youngsters and vets, as DeAndre’ Bembry, Tyler Dorsey, Vince Carter and Justin Anderson can all have occasional good games.
All that talent is a clear upgrade from last year’s squad, and there could be a real road map for 40 wins next season.
Most importantly they need to get off to a hot start. Last season’s 2-12 start ensured they were at the bottom for almost the whole season, and it’s hard to climb back from being 10 games under .500 after only 14 games played.
Luckily, they have a soft schedule to start the year, playing the Knicks, Grizzlies, Cavs, Mavericks, Kings and Bulls in the first few weeks. Getting a few wins under their belt would not only boost the confidence of the inexperienced roster, but also hopefully put them ahead of other teams fighting for the seventh and eighth seeds.
To wrap up: The Hawks will need at least 40 wins by getting good performances from their rookies and veterans alike. Other bubble teams like the Hornets, Pistons, Heat and Cavs need to struggle, and Atlanta needs to get off to a hot start.
Sounds easy, right?
Making the playoffs shouldn’t happen for a team in year two of the rebuild process, but the Atlanta Hawks are being underrated by most media pundits and have a chance to sneak in thanks to the lackluster talent levels in the Eastern Conference compared to the juggernaut West.