Atlanta Hawks: RJ Barrett or Zion Williamson?

A pair of Duke Blue Devils are at the top of most 2019 draft boards. The Atlanta Hawks will almost assuredly have a top-3 pick. Who you takin’?

In one corner, standing 6’7″ and weighing 285 pounds, it’s “Zanos,” the “Insta-Darling”, the “Hefty Hooper.”

In the other, standing 6’7 and weighing a scrawny-by-comparison 208 pounds, it’s “Ducky,” the “Canadian Assassin”, the “Maple Mamba.”

Two prized ballers–both Baby Blue Devils.

With a top-end draft selection coming in June, who will the Atlanta Hawks anoint as the next franchise cornerstone?

Zion Williamson? The once-in-a-generation athletic talent who wears the hype like a cheetah fur cloak?

Or will it be R.J. Barrett? The lone recruit rated above Zion in this year’s class?

If the ping pong ball adorned with No. 1 falls into their lap, the Atlanta Hawks will have a league-defining choice to make. And barring some insane late-season infatuation with Ja Morant, Cam Reddish, or another tardy bloomer, the answer to the big question will be one of the demigod dudes in the picture above.

Let’s take a look at each prospect, sizing up their styles and how they might fit into the Atlanta Hawks roster.

Because at it’s root, the meta-question is this. Does R.J. Barrett fit better alongside the pieces Atlanta already has? And even if he does, does that matter when contrasted with the obvious, other-worldly super-star potential of Zion?

 The Case for R.J. Barrett

There was a reason why R.J. Barrett was rated above Zion Williamson in the eyes of most scouts coming out of high school.

The Canadian forward showcased a complete tool-box of skills on the AAU circuit, displaying exceptional scoring ability and explosive athleticism. It’s translated over to the college game–though perhaps not to a tune of complete dominance that was expected by some.

By nearly every measure, however, Barrett be ballin’.

He leads the number one conference in the nation in scoring at 23.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting. He averages 1.8 made 3PT FG per game while tallying 6.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists per outing.

If it weren’t for his teammate’s earth-shattering slams, Barrett’s highlight level plays would be getting a lot more traction. This dude’s got more bounce than a serving size of Flubber.

Despite a usage rate of 33.7%, Barrett is committing just 2.6 turnovers a game in 31.2 minutes.

Did I mention this man is a bona-fide scorer? With teammate Zion not playing in the second half against the thirteenth-ranked Florida State Seminoles on Saturday, R.J. caught fire and dropped 32 points to lead his team to a quality road win in a hostile environment.

Yes, Cam Reddish hit the three-point shot to clinch the W. But watch how much attention the Seminoles pay to Barrett on the climactic in-bounds play.

https://twitter.com/theACCDN/status/1084203382586388480

He’s caught some flak for being a ballhog. Has he tried to play hero-ball a few too many times, with negative results? Sure, and the numbers back that up.

That said, Barrett’s situation doesn’t have a lot of precedent. The top-3 recruits in the nation all playing on the same floor creates an interesting team dynamic when it comes to scoring opportunities.

Barrett has gotten better as the season has progressed when it comes to recognizing when he needs to step up and when he needs to feed his talented teammates.

That kind of recognition will become extremely important when he makes the transition to the NBA. Even on a (relative to the league) talent-dry team like the Atlanta Hawks, you still have individuals like Trae Young and John Collins chomping at the bit to fill up the basket.

Which brings us to the most important reason why R.J. Barrett has a case to be picked No. 1 by the Atlanta Hawks if they get the opportunity.

Fit.

The Hawks have their point-guard of the future in Ice Trae and their big man of the future in John the Baptist.

What are they missing? A star wing. A guy who may one day (sooner rather than later) eventually reach a Paul-George-caliber ceiling.

No one on the current iteration of the Hawks fits the strong 3-and-D mold. Free agency down the road is certainly a possibility for filling the gap, but the Atlanta Hawks couldn’t go wrong with drafting the next Jayson Tatum, another former score-first Dukie.

With Barrett, the Hawks would have the potential for a fantastic, balanced lineup in the mold of the LeBron-era Heat.

Bosh-Wade-James becomes Collins-Young-Barrett.

That’s not to suggest the talent levels are the same. The comparison is merely for position group similarity. Really good teams have their best players playing different positions–it’s not rocket science.

On paper, Barrett hits the “team-need” mark better than Williamson.

Of course, games aren’t played on paper. Games are played on the court, and it’s the court where Zion Williamson has had more jaw-dropping how-did-he-do-that moments than any college player of the past decade.

The Case for Zion Williamson

Simply put, we have never seen anyone like him.

His unique laboratory concoction of strength, speed, and size seems better suited for the turf than the hardwood, and yet here he is. All 6’7″ and 285 pounds of him.

Labels like “once-in-a-generation” and “surefire No. 1” have been tossed around, with good reason. I mean, just look.

We’ve all seen the insane dunks. But now he’s going 3-for-4 from behind the arc? Are you kidding me?

And that stat line isn’t against Yale. Geez, Wake Forest is an ACC opponent. A Wake player recently told me that the only weakness his team could discern while scouting him was the three-point stroke, so they game-planned to make that an emphasis.

Oh well.

The possibility of a long-distance shooting Zion has the NBA salivating for good reason. From every metric, it looks like he is going to be a superstar for a long time.

When you’re smashing Anthony Davis‘ college marks, you’re doing something right.

Contrary to what ESPN sometimes seems to be turning him into, Zion is much more than a high-flying circus act. He has phenomenal basketball IQ, tremendous defensive instincts, and a propensity for being a force of nature wherever he is on the court.

Sound familiar?

That’s right, for as many headaches that have been caused when the LeBron comparisons start flying around the room for guys that haven’t reached their 20th birthday, there seems to be something different about Zion from O.J. Mayo, Andrew Wiggins, and Ben Simmons, no?

As has been previously stated, we’ve literally never seen anything like him.

With a city starved for a big-name star, Zion would deliver not only the entertainment value, but a solid building block (no pun intended) for sustained championship basketball.

The dunks provide a surface-level joy that masks how dang good this man is at basketball. As of Jan. 8, Zion was shooting an incredible 74% on two-point attempts. Defensively, his block rate (7.1) and steal rate (4.2) provide numerical context to what we see with our own eyes.

https://twitter.com/Ballislife/status/1065378925935820801

Athleticism translates, folks.

At worst? Somewhere between Aaron Gordon and Blake Griffin.

The ceiling? Well, that’s the roof my friend.

The Verdict

#TankForZion

But, one has to keep expectations realistic.

Right now, the Atlanta Hawks are currently 5th in 2019 draft lottery odds according to tankathon.com.

At the Hawks’ current pace, with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns both bottoming out, there’s a very good chance that Atlanta would have to fight and claw to even get to that third-worst record slot. Luckily, this year’s draft lottery rules shake-up means that the three worst teams each have an equal 14.0% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick.

That same rule-change mixed up the other lottery odds as well. Realistically, the Atlanta Hawks are more than likely not going to have the top selection. Even if they finish with one of the three worst records, there’s an 86% chance that someone else will have to make the decision that’s been laid out here.

But, there’s still a chance, right?

Here is where I’d like to splash some cold water on this whole thing. Atlanta Hawks GM Travis Schlenk gave a major hint into his front office’s thought process when he talked to The Athletic on Jan. 10

The Athletic: “I was going to ask you, when you’re scouting, you’re prioritizing talent over systematic fit then?”

Schlenk: “Yeah, we’re going with talent over fit, for sure. As you start picking in the second round, there might be a guy who fits perfectly. I think some of the biggest mistakes in the draft, at least the ones I’ve been a part of, is drafting for need, especially at the top of the draft, over talent.” (Italicization added by me.)

It’s seemingly a surefire endorsement of Zion, no? We’ll have to wait and see. One can never trust the words of a GM six months away from a draft. The amount of sleight-of-hand info-funneling that goes on would make a Russian Facebook page manager blush.

As for me? Well, this is Zion Williamson’s world. And I’ve accepted the fact that we’re all just living in it.