An in-depth exploration of the backcourt of the future for the Atlanta Hawks featuring Trae Young and Kevin Huerter.
After a memorable final game of the regular season in 2018, the Atlanta Hawks came away with three first-round picks in the 2018 NBA Draft.
All Hawks fans know what happened in the top 5 of the draft, as Hawks GM Travis Schlenk made a massive decision to pass on Luka Doncic in favor of Trae Young. While the move was widely panned at the time, in recent weeks the move has looked like a win-win, as Luka continues to tear up the NBA and Trae Young has slightly outplayed him over the past 2 months as the best rookie in the NBA.
With the 19th overall pick, which was acquired from the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Atlanta Hawks could’ve gone any number of directions. There was a glut of wings and combo guards available around this spot in the draft, but the Hawks opted for Kevin Huerter out of Maryland, who was also been a bright spot for a Hawks team that is 20 games under .500 this season.
In fact, Young and Huerter have played so well together that it seems as if the team’s backcourt of the future is set in stone going forward. Another secondary creator at the two guard spot could be a priority in the 2019 NBA Draft, but right now, Ice Trae and Red Pepper look to be a scintillating combination.
Let’s take a look at the duo’s numbers.
Huerter’s Shooting
According to BBall Index’s Offensive Player Impact Plus/Minus, Young, Huerter as well as fellow cornerstone John Collins are the best players on the team. Collins leads all 3 with a 2.2 OPIPM, but Trae is right behind with a 1.5 OPIPM.
Huerter lags behind slightly, but his 0.5 OPIPM is still third-highest on the team.
Where Red Pepper truly shines is via his gorgeous three-point jumper, which he has employed to spectacular effect throughout the season.
Per NBA.com, Huerter’s three-point shooting numbers are stupendous. Among rookies that have played at least 50 games, Huerter is 4th in three-pointers made per game (1.8), 5th in three-pointers attempted per game (4.6) and 3rd in three-point percentage (38.6%).
Beyond that, his on/off rating is -1.8, which is 9th among rookies, and he is scoring 9.3 points per game – good enough for 10th among rookies with at least 50 games played.
When watching Huerter, he flashes an extremely skill set and is a lot of fun to watch. At times, Huerter’s impressive length and size makes him look like a newborn fawn who’s unsure how to use its limbs, but when he is confident, such as when he downed the Philadelphia 76ers earlier in the year with a career-high 29 points, it’s a lot of fun to watch:
While Huerter’s shooting is impressive, he’s not just a one-trick pony on offense.
More On Huerter’s Offensive Game
According to PBP Stats, Huerter has one of the lowest usage rates on the Atlanta Hawks.
At 15.28 percent in usage rate, Huerter is ahead of only Jaylen Adams, Alex Poythress and Omari Spellman – all three of whom have not played that much this season.
Despite that, Huerter has shown flashes of extreme effectiveness with the ball in his hands.
Among rookies who have played at least 50 games per NBA.com, Huerter is actually tied for 4th in assists per game at 2.8 with Collin Sexton. Only his teammate Trae Young at 7.7, Luka Doncic at 5.6 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are ahead of our redheaded rookie.
Beyond that, Huerter has produced the second-most unassisted points from downtown on the Atlanta Hawks after Young, with 63 points.
When watching Huerter, he seems comfortable running the break and his passes, at times, are highlight reel-worthy:
Huerter has an impressive fluidity to his game that is admirable and enjoyable to watch, and his defensive chops are fairly impressive too.
Among all shooting guards in the NBA, Huerter is 26th in ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus metric with a -0.44. Though a negative number is never great, that puts him ahead of notable players such as Jaylen Brown, Eric Gordon, Devin Booker and Atlanta Hawks legend Kyle Korver.
But what about Trae?
Trae’s Terrific Season
As has already been stated, Trae Young has erupted into the popular consciousness of late after some incredible performances as well as a despicable ejection from salty referees. In fact, Trae has played so well over the course of the season that it’s not a stretch to claim him as the best rookie in Hawks franchise history.
Most notably, Young produced a 49-point, 16-assist stat line that will remain legendary – no matter what happens the rest of the season, or even the rest of Trae’s career:
While Young is something of a turnstile on defense at this juncture, he has exhibited superior effort in recent weeks, and there is hope that he can get stronger (a la Stephen Curry’s supreme gains in recent years) and learn how to defend better later on in his career.
Trae is already one of the best passers in the NBA, and his 1.79 Offensive Real Plus/Minus per ESPN puts him ahead of elite talents like Ben Simmons and De’Aaron Fox.
Young is just outside of Inpredictable’s Top 25 in terms of Kitchen Sink Win Probability Added with an 18.59 kWPA, which combines win probability added for each box score counting stat.
However, one need only watch a full game of Trae to realize that he is a special talent at the point guard spot, and the Atlanta Hawks made the right choice if they were looking to cement the team’s lead ballhandling gig for years to come.
Much has been written about Trae Young here at SDS (and much more will be), but how have these two rookies played together in their rookie seasons? Let’s explore that.
The Young/Huerter Backcourt
According to Cleaning the Glass’s lineup on/off data, we can see just how effective lineups that feature Trae at point guard and Huerter at shooting guard are.
So far this season, there have been 774 possessions (non-garbage time) that feature that lineup dynamic. Two numbers that automatically pop off the page are an excellent 115.1 points per possession with Young and Huerter in the backcourt.
Even more impressive is an amazing 58.7 percent effective field goal percentage with a Young/Huerter backcourt, which is in the 99th percentile of all lineups in the league.
Digging a bit deeper into those numbers and baking in Atlanta Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce’s focus on a more modern shot profile, the Hawks 40.1 percent three-point attempt rate with a Young/Huerter backcourt is in the 93rd percentile across the NBA.
Though a 36.4 percent at-rim attempt rate is only in the 52nd percentile, the team is shooting a sterling 67.7 percent at the rim (good for 91st percentile) when Ice Trae and Red Pepper share the backcourt.
Furthermore, they shoot quite well on long two-pointers (44.6%, 83rd percentile) and their three-point shooting in those lineup configurations is exceptional.
While their shooting from corner threes (44%) is actually only in the 86th percentile, lineups with a Young/Huerter backcourt are bombing at a 40.2 percent clip when not in the corners and 41.2 percent on all three-pointers – both of which are good enough for the 96th percentile.
The Atlanta Hawks have an amazing young core, and that’s not even included whoever the team obtains in the 2019 NBA Draft nor any young players that are brought in via free agency this offseason. It’s a great time to be an Atlanta Hawks fan, and with Young and Huerter here for many years, it should only get better.