An in-depth exploration of why the positives and negatives of the Atlanta Hawks trading for Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors.
The Atlanta Hawks are on the upswing. After making a blockbuster trade on draft day last year, the team has been exuding nothing but positives vibes of late. From two of their rookies likely making an All-Rookie team (Trae Young First-Team and Kevin Huerter All-Second Team) to the improvement of John Collins from his rookie year to sophomore year, as well as the terrific first year for head coach Lloyd Pierce – everything is coming up Hawks.
Of course, all that positivity would come to a head if the team were to win the lottery in May’s NBA Draft lottery, and they did indeed move up last year to #3 overall. Of course, #1 is where to be this year as the prize is mammoth college superstar Zion Williamson.
Even if they don’t win the lottery, though, the Atlanta Hawks are in a good position. With boatloads of cap space and a young core that should improve each year, Atlanta is in position to be an attractive destination for big-name free agents this offseason.
But beyond the draft and free agents, what would the team be able to get done via trade? Could they swing for a superstar? A recent article from Bleacher Report hypothesizes that they can — in the form of Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors.
The Trade
Here’s the trade as outlined in a piece by Zach Buckley of Bleacher Report:
As you can see the preliminary pieces going to Golden State are Taurean Prince and a lottery-protected 2020 first round pick.
Now, that might seem like a high price, but Green’s value will likely still be high during the offseason – especially if the Warriors three-peat as NBA champions as expected. Though Prince is four years younger than Draymond – more in line with the Atlanta Hawks’ timeline – Prince has not shown enough flashes to merit a long-term commitment to him as a member of this core.
Furthermore, Green will be a free agent in 2020, so if he doesn’t work out in Atlanta, he can immediately enter the market in the 2020 offseason as an unrestricted free agent. No harm, no foul.
Though Green’s ballbusting (literally) antics are known throughout the league, he strikes me as a player that is adored by the fans of whatever team he’s playing for (i.e. the Warriors his whole career) but reviled by opposing fanbases.
Usually those players are irritants that tend to make big plays that swing games, series and seasons (think Draymond, Patrick Beverley or Marcus Smart). Wouldn’t it be nice to have a player such as that who can back it up with multiple championships on this young roster?
Let’s take a look at some positives and negatives of making such a trade for Draymond.
Positive: Defense
First off, Draymond is still a world-class defender. For an Atlanta Hawks team that was dead last in opponent points per game per Basketball Reference at 119.4, Draymond would immediately slide in as the team’s starting five – helping to spearhead a small-ball lineup that should, in theory at least, provide similar value that the “Hamptons Five” or “death lineup” does to the Warriors.
Despite noticeable signs of aging (which we’ll get to later), Draymond is still lethal on the defensive end. Statistically, the numbers back this up.
Among players that played 65 games or more (Dray played 66), Green was 8th in ESPN’s defensive real/plus minus metric with 3.41. Every single player ahead of Draymond were stiff big men who are particularly adept at switching onto the perimeter – something that Green has hung his hat on throughout his career.
That DRPM was higher than players such as likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Paul George and Joel Embiid.
BBall Index’s defensive player impact plus/minus filters out luck and also doesn’t rely as much on the play of teammates. By that metric, Green is tied for 4th in the NBA with a 3.1 DPIPM with Brook Lopez. Only Rudy Gobert, Marc Gasol and Giannis are ahead of him.
Clearly, a four-time All-Defensive team player and 2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year would greatly aid and Atlanta Hawks team that desperately needs a defensive upgrade to truly compete.
Positive: Recruiting
Perhaps a more nebulous facet of Green’s career, but it seems that Draymond is one of the best recruiters of big-name stars to his team in recent NBA history.
Over the course of the past three offseasons, Green has recruited two of the biggest free agent names to the Warriors: Kevin Durant in the 2016 offseason and DeMarcus Cousins in the 2018 offseason.
Sure, the Warriors have been a powerhouse for the past four seasons, but Draymond’s ability to lure away Durant, in particular, to the team that ousted his Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2015-16 season is tremendous work.
Maybe players are drawn to his outsized personality and outspoken on-court and off-court persona, or perhaps they appreciate his consistent attacks on referees – making them out to be the enemy explicitly (and especially coordinating a unified front against a ref earlier in the season).
No matter the reason, if Green truly embraced his role with the Atlanta Hawks, his presence would immediately lend a legitimacy to the team that they’ve lacked for, well, perhaps their entire tenure in Atlanta!
Now, maybe Green would suffer from having a lesser supporting cast around him, but the Atlanta Hawks’ roster construction is quite reminiscent of Golden State’s so the fit should be quite good.
Despite this, there are some negatives of a potential Draymond trade.
Negative: Age
This is the biggest negative that comes to mind when pondering a Draymond Green trade to pair him with an up-and-coming Atlanta Hawks core.
Green will turn 30 throughout the course of the 2019-20 season, making him almost a decade older than the main fixtures on the Atlanta Hawks. Would the team want to keep Green around long-term on a deal that will likely not be cost-effective?
Also, there’s no question that Green’s athleticism is waning. While once a fearsome attacker of the rim in transition, his vertical lift has considerably lowered over this past season, and his numbers were affected. Green only saw action in 66 games this season, which was a career-low, and he posted his lowest per-game numbers in points, blocks, rebound and three-point shooting since either his first or second season.
Of course, this negative is a moot point if Green only sticks around for one season, helping to bridge the gap between a high-upside “fun story” Hawks team and a long-term, playoff-hardened contender – which is an element that Green can certainly provide, making his age more of a positive contributing factor.
Still though, will a Green with lesser athleticism be able to feast in transition alongside the galloping John Collins and Trae Young?
Negative: Offense
Draymond Green had one of his worst offensive seasons in 2018-19 for a Warriors team that seemed to be sleepwalking its way through the regular season. Can you blame them? When you’ve gone to four straight NBA Finals (and will likely get to a 5th), a little complacency is commonplace.
However, Green’s offensive numbers (per Basketball Reference) dwindled at an alarming rate and he posted his lowest offensive box plus/minus (-1.4) and lowest offensive win shares (1.1) since his second season. Beyond that, he posted a career-high 26.8 turnover percentage, which is particularly concerning for an Atlanta Hawks team that led the NBA in turnovers.
Draymond’s rebounding rates, both on defense (20.8%) and in total (12.4%) fell from last season, with that total rebound rate falling to a career-low – tied with his rookie year.
The Atlanta Hawks also love to shoot three-pointers, and they expect their big men to be able to step out and hit them too – as both Dewayne Dedmon and Alex Len did throughout the season. Green only attempted 165 triples throughout the year (the second-lowest total of his career), and he shot a career-low 28.5 percent on those shots (not counting his rookie year when he only attempted 67).
Conclusion
In the end, a Draymond Green trade to the Atlanta Hawks is rather unlikely to happen. Though Warriors General Manager Bob Myers is one of the cagiest in the business – as they planned well in advance in order to acquire Kevin Durant in free agency – trading a franchise icon seems like an improbability.
However… stranger things have happened in the NBA. Also, Atlanta Hawks GM Travis Schlenk was a longtime assistant to Myers in Golden State who helped the team recognize the talent that Draymond had – seeing him as a steal in the second round.
The Hawks, under the team’s previous administration, have previously been linked to Draymond in the summer of 2015 when he was a free agent. The Warriors re-upped Green on a five-year/$82 million pact, but with numerous factors in play, the team might be willing to let go of a franchise legend to a team that’s looking to take the next step with a proven playoff contributor.
Are the Atlanta Hawks even in a position to want to “win-now” with Green? With a promising young core that will only get better over the course of the next few years as well as a glut of draft picks, a lengthy, organic rebuild seems like a palatable choice.
However, look at how teams such as the Celtics, Pacers and Nets have rebuilt recently. They’ve stayed in the thick of the playoff hunt despite not bottoming out (or at least not benefiting from bottoming out in the Nets case). Could the Atlanta Hawks supercharge their rebuild by trading for Green for the relatively low price of Prince and a protected first round pick?
It’s an interesting question, and one that will be answered soon by Atlanta Hawks GM Travis Schlenk and his administration. The offseason awaits!