An in-depth look at why the Atlanta Hawks should make a gutsy choice in the 2019 NBA Draft by selecting junior forward Grant Williams out of the University of Tennessee.
With the 2019 NBA Draft under two weeks away, the Atlanta Hawks are gearing up for a seismic night for the future of the team with two top-10 draft picks and five picks in the top 45 of the entire draft board.
Last year, the team made some huge decisions, including the trade of Luka Doncic for Trae Young (a trade that seemingly worked out for both teams, with the potential of a Co-Rookie of the Year award this offseason) as well as the drafting of Kevin Huerter and Omari Spellman.
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With those young players as well as the continued growth and development of John Collins as well as the emergence of DeAndre’ Bembry as a steady perimeter defender off the bench, the 2019 NBA Draft will be a time for the Atlanta Hawks to take a swing on upside or plug in a player that can start from day one – or both.
Because the Hawks hold the 8th and 10th pick, there are multiple avenues open to them. They could either trade up or trade down with those picks or take advantage of any player that has fallen down 2019 NBA Draft boards with the 8th pick. With the 10th pick, however, is where things get truly interesting.
With a multitude of players underneath the upper tier available in this draft, the 10th pick is where the Atlanta Hawks could look to explore some upside or take a swing on a player that is widely believed to be a lower-end prospect.
That’s why the Atlanta Hawks should draft Grant Williams out of Tennessee with the 10th overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Let’s explore the reasoning behind that move.
Age
Grant Williams is one of the most decorated college players in this draft class not named Zion Williamson. The all-encompassing mastery of Zion’s freshman season at Duke led to him sweeping nearly every major award at season’s end.
However, Williams is a two-time SEC Player of the Year – winning back-to-back awards in his sophomore and junior seasons at age 19 and 20, respectively.
Let that sink in. Grant Williams will not turn 21 years old until November, which puts his incredible production at the college level in perspective. Perhaps even more notable is Williams proven improvement year-over-year in his three college seasons at Tennessee.
Per Sports Reference, Williams increased his raw scoring numbers, rebounding numbers and assist numbers in each of his three collegiate seasons. Beyond that, when his role grew from a volume standpoint between his freshman and sophomore years, his efficiency dipped a bit before it lifted to stratospheric heights in 2018-19.
Beyond that, Williams played nearly 32 minutes a game in his junior year – up from just over 25 in his freshman year.
Though this might sound hyperbolic (and it is), Williams produced an SEC Player of the Year campaign in his sophomore year at age 19, which was – bear with me – the same age that Luka Doncic was when he won EuroLeague MVP. Now sure, those two are not equitable because Luka was playing professionally against “capital-m” men and Grant was feasting on players that were smaller and weaker than him, but still, the SEC is one of the major conferences in college basketball – not some mid-major backwater.
Then he came back and dominated the conference to an even greater degree the following season? Sounds like a top prospect to me.
Offense: Scoring
Grant Williams’s offensive profile leaves room for continued improvement, especially regarding shot distribution, and the Atlanta Hawks can expect Williams to be a workout warrior due to the improvements he has made to his body and in his game throughout his college career.
Though the majority of Williams’s shot attempts came via post-ups at Tennessee, it seems reasonable to expect Williams to be able to operate further out by the elbow or on the wing later on in his career as he continues to develop (remember, he’ll only be 20 when Summer League begins).
Williams’s jump shot is reliable in the mid-range area, where he shot 50.2 percent per The Stepien in his junior season with 98.8 percent of those being assisted. Playing next to a generational passer in Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks, Williams can expect a steady diet of wide-open shots from all over the court.
In terms of his finishing, one of Williams’s trademarks is his lightning-quick (and lethal) spin move, which provides him space to finish around the rim. Combined with sterling footwork, instantaneous decision-making and tremendous strength, Williams will likely be a rock-solid finisher at the rim at the next level.
Just so we have it, per Bart Torvik, Williams shot 72.2 percent at the rim in the 2018-19 season, which accounted for 37.2 percent of his shots.
Offense: Free Throws, Rebounding, Passing & Screening
Elsewhere on the offensive end, Williams provides a plethora of skills that would make for an excellent fit on the Atlanta Hawks in the 2019 NBA Draft.
First off, Williams was a prolific and gifted foul-drawer, which was typified in a close game against SEC doormat Vanderbilt last season. In that game, Williams scored 43 points including a bonkers 23 of 23 showing from the foul line.
All told, Williams ended the season with a free throw rate of 63.7 percent per KenPom, which ranked 44th in the country and 6.8 fouls drawn per 40 minutes per KenPom, which was 22nd in the country. Williams uses his flurry of post moves as well as general bulk and a knack for drawing contact in order to grift his way to many, many foul line trips. Again, combined with Trae Young of the Hawks – who is a gifted foul-drawer himself – the Atlanta Hawks would be living at the line.
Though a solid offensive rebounder too (8.8% OREB rate per KenPom, 17.4% DREB rate per KenPom), where Williams truly excels is with his passing. Though, again, most of Williams’s passing came out of the post, where he was a pass-first, score-second option for the Volunteers, Williams showcased a wide variety of passing abilities during his junior season, such as drive-and-kick scenarios, short-roll finds, lobs in the open court and pinpoint big-to-big passing in the paint.
Perhaps most importantly for the future of the Atlanta Hawks in the 2019 NBA Draft, Williams has proven himself to be a tremendous screener. Beyond providing another wrinkle to the Atlanta Hawks’ offense with dribble hand-offs, Williams often found himself wide open on rolls to the rim due to his mammoth frame and ability to leverage his position to carve out space for an open look. Once his three-point jumper fully develops – watch out!
Offense: Shooting
As we have already explored, Williams is a rock-solid mid-range shooter and a very good foul drawer.
Once he gets to the foul line, Williams showed improvement in each of his three college seasons, culminating in an excellent 81.9 percent clip at the foul line on a whopping 7 attempts per game in his junior year per Sports Reference.
Of course, free throw shooting in college is a better indicator of how a player’s shot will develop in the NBA, and Williams certainly has a pure form that should be portable to playing alongside Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks.
Per Red Team Scouting’s shot form assessment of Williams, his shot was dead-bang on the center on 86 percent of his attempts – though this in-depth study only accounted for a total of 78 shots.
In terms of his three-pointer in college, Williams shot 29.1 percent on a minuscule .097 three-point attempt rate per Sports Reference. Clearly, Williams will have to invest time and effort into making sure his three-pointer will go in at a decent clip at the next level – as the Atlanta Hawks must bring in players in the 2019 NBA Draft that can space the floor around Trae Young so that our shifty point guard doesn’t get bottled up inside.
Defense
Much of a player’s defensive upside can be explained via his measurables. In this area, Williams lacks the upper-tier length or quickness of some players in the 2019 NBA Draft class. Though immensely strong and boasting a terrifically ripped frame (6-foot-7, 236 pounds, 6-foot-11 wingspan), the simple truth is that he lacks the lateral movement and burst that the most fearsome defenders have.
However, that does not mean he will be a liability for the Atlanta Hawks on that end. The Hawks desperately need to address defense in the 2019 NBA Draft, and Williams projects as a terrific option in small-ball scenarios.
A recent trendy comparison for Williams is P.J. Tucker of the Houston Rockets, who uses his immense strength to play the five against some of the best teams in the league, and the hope is that Williams can do the same thing – or at least serve as a free safety and help-side savant to allow John Collins to serve as a standstill rim protector (which is a skill set that JC has admittedly not yet flashed in his career).
Good at communicating on the less glamorous end, Williams has generally strong court awareness and uses that to surprise people with opportune double-teams and shocking blocks – as his 5.3 percent block rate per KenPom would attest.
Final Reasons and Takeaways
In the 2019 NBA Draft (and any draft for that matter), teams should always be looking for upside in the top end for talent in the lottery.
Since the Atlanta Hawks hold two lottery picks in this year’s draft, they will either be hoping for a highly regarded player to fall to them at #8 while also choosing the player they deem to have the most talent or upside at #10 overall.
Though he might not be a sexy choice, Grant Williams has that elusive combination of a high ceiling and a high floor – and it’s mostly due to his overall feel and basketball IQ.
When watching Williams play, that’s the most immediate and obvious skill that Williams possesses on a play-to-play basis. On defense, he’s mucking things up with his size, but he is able to do that because his computer-like brain is processing tons of basketball information at lightning speed.
On offense, Williams employs those smarts in similar ways to make tremendous passes that almost always happen to also be the right passes – an important caveat when projecting to the next level.
No matter what happens, the 2019 NBA Draft will be huge for the Atlanta Hawks, and it seems that most teams are lower on Williams (as our most recent mock draft would indicate).
General Manager Travis Schlenk should take advantage of this and take a chance on Williams at #10 overall. Hawks fans will thank him later.