A detailed examination of the Atlanta Hawks trading up and drafting Jarrett Culver out of Texas Tech in the 2019 NBA Draft.
With less than a week to go until the 2019 NBA Draft, the Atlanta Hawks have been featured in a plethora of rumors of late regarding various prospects. One extremely notable name the team has been linked to is Jarrett Culver out of Texas Tech.
The 20-year-old sophomore wing had a tremendous second year, blossoming into a star after playing alongside fellow first round pick Zhaire Smith in his rookie season. Culver was pretty much the go-to option on offense for Texas Tech, though Matt Mooney played quite well down the end of the season (particularly in the latter stages of the NCAA Tournament) as the team’s point guard.
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Speaking of the NCAA Tournament, Culver helped lead the Red Raiders all the way to the title game, where it took an overtime period for Virginia to flip the script and win the university’s first men’s basketball championship ever.
The loss will likely sting, but Culver is set for bigger and better things in his pro career. As a consensus top 10 pick, Culver is widely regarded as one of the best prospects in this draft class (in the non-Zion Williamson tier, at least).
Recent news has pegged the Atlanta Hawks as a potential suitor for Culver, though the team won’t be able to rely on him falling to #8 in the 2019 NBA Draft. As such, he is one of the few players that it would make sense for the Hawks to trade up for (though this writer’s preference would be to still make all six selections and worry about it later).
Read on to explore reasons why trading up and drafting Culver makes sense.
Offense
Due to his offensive skills, taking Culver in the Top 5 of the 2019 NBA Draft is certainly a tantalizing option. During his sophomore season, Culver was the #1 option on Texas Tech, and despite getting shut down by De’Andre Hunter in the title game, he still flashed a ton of potential as a secondary creator and playmaker off the dribble.
Per Bart Torvik, Culver was one of only 28 players that attempted over 220 shots at the rim, and he shot a robust 66.5 percent on those shots. Even more impressively, only 24.5 percent of those shots were assisted – meaning Culver was relying on his strength, athleticism, touch and dribble moves to get good looks at the rim that he knocked down at an excellent clip.
Perhaps even more notably, Culver was one of only 7 of those players that also attempted over 150 three-pointers, and he joined Ja Morant and D’Marcus Simonds of Georgia State (in a lesser capacity) as the only draft prospects who were assisted on less than 60 percent of those three-point attempts per Bart Torvik – meaning, again, that much of Culver’s work was being done off the dribble.
Culver’s most notable skill when he’s not scoring is his terrific passing ability. Culver makes terrific passing choices while on the move, and due to his gravity driving to the rim, Culver diced up defenses with his reads to the tune of a 26.1 percent assist rate, which was 3rd in the Big 12 per Sports Reference.
Offensive Fit
In terms of Culver’s fit on the Atlanta Hawks if they were to trade up for the swingman in the 2019 NBA Draft, because the Hawks already have Trae Young as the team’s ball-dominant lead ballhandler, Culver would slip back into a role more suitable to his skill-set – a lower-usage off-ball player that can contribute in a number of ways.
Per Red Team Scouting’s profile of Culver, he grades out as a 6.1 or higher in 4 out of the 5 categories they outline, including “movement & positioning, shooting off the catch, shooting off movement and finishing off movement.” The only category he didn’t grade out in was screening due to a lack of experience (only five screens across two seasons).
Indeed, a simple glimpse at Culver’s numbers from freshman to sophomore years showcase his ability to hit three-point jumpers at a solid clip when given less to do on offense. Per Sports Reference, Culver’s usage rate skyrocketed ten percentage points from freshman to sophomore year, yet his three-point attempt rate dwindled from 45.1 percent in his freshman campaign to 29.2 percent last season.
When Culver wasn’t being tasked with producing his own shot in his freshman season, he drilled 38.2 percent of his three-pointers on similar volume (144 attempts in his freshman year vs. 162 in his sophomore).
An active with tremendous body control and soft hands, Culver will also be a common target for the passing wizardry of Trae Young (and Kevin Huerter to a lesser extent).
Defense & Defensive Fit
Where the Atlanta Hawks can employ Jarrett Culver to the team’s best benefit is on the defensive end. Culver was named the Big 12 Player of the Year in his sophomore campaign, and though much of that hype came from his increased offensive burden and production, it must be noted that he was also a terrific defender as well.
Though flawed metrics, Culver ranked 6th in the country in raw defensive rating (86.7) per Sports Reference, and he was number one in the country in defensive win shares with 3.5. Since there are no truly excellent stats that gauge a player’s defensive ability, those two will have to serve as a decent proxy for a player that is truly terrific on the less glamorous end.
Once again leaning on Red Team Scouting’s profile of Culver, he grades out as a 5.9 or higher in “on-ball defense, off-ball defense, help defense and switching.” The only category that he doesn’t hit those thresholds is “high impact plays,” though the site offers the caveat of “he is a disruptive defender who will be able to create extra possessions within the flow of the defense.”
Certainly, watching footage of Culver showcases a terrific frame who will likely be able to put on bulk as his career progresses and has a strong feel for the game and an eminently high basketball IQ.
Measurables & Tools
Culver participated in the 2019 NBA Draft Combine, where some of his measurements were eye-opening. Despite being listed on various outlets as being 6-foot-5, Culver actually measured out at 6-foot-6¾, showcasing the fact that this young man might still be growing into his body – which should lead the Atlanta Hawks (and all teams selecting in the lottery of the 2019 NBA Draft) to believe that Culver might grow still more as he ages.
Culver lacks the burst and agility laterally to truly engage with quicker guards when he switches onto them, but Culver does hold immense strength and terrific body control – which he uses to slide his feet and leverage that strength on both ends.
With a 6-foot-8¼ wingspan, Culver is able to use his below-average vertical explosion in concert with that length to finish lobs with relative ease. Again, when combined with soft touch and great hands, Culver will likely be the beneficiary of many terrific passes from Ice Trae and others.
Culver has a fairly solid handle, and his herky-jerky style of play will likely serve as a change of pace were the Atlanta Hawks to trade up for him in the 2019 NBA Draft. Where Trae Young and Kevin Huerter play a more fluid style and John Collins is one of the premier vertical threats in the NBA, Culver will likely serve as a catch-and-shoot threat or secondary attacker with terrific passing vision – a role that Taurean Prince was simply not able to play last season with the Hawks.
Overall Fit & Takeaways
After the Taurean Prince trade that let the Atlanta Hawks acquire two future first round picks (#17 in the 2019 NBA Draft and a lottery-protected selection in 2020), the team now has literally no player that can reliably and consistently guard wings on the roster.
The team’s best option at this juncture would be DeAndre’ Bembry, though he might be a little too short and slim to handle the beefiest power forwards in the NBA. Kent Bazemore is too thin, which means that the Atlanta Hawks must assess this need either in the 2019 NBA Draft or in free agency this offseason. Could Culver be the answer?
Though he will likely take time to truly grow into his role and put a bit more heft on his narrow frame, Culver projects to be a high-upside offensive creator with the floor of being a terrific defender from day one with a reliable three-point jumper.
Trading up in the 2019 NBA Draft might not be the most palatable move for this writer, but Culver is worth the risk. Just pondering the collective growth of Ice Trae, Red Pepper, John the Baptist alongside Culver makes for a tantalizing daydream.
Combine the seamless on-court fit of Culver with the fact that he won’t turn 21 until late February, and you have the makings of a gifted wing player who can grow right alongside the team’s young core that is already in place.
In a wide-open 2019 NBA Draft, trading up might not be the best option, but if the Atlanta Hawks were to pull such a move, the player they should target is Jarrett Culver.