Atlanta Hawks: What a John Collins Contract Extension Looks Like

John Collins is playing like a true All-Star. Will the Atlanta Hawks pay him as such?

Since being drafted 19th overall in 2017, John Collins has improved exponentially as a member of the Atlanta Hawks. He’s become one of the biggest steals in recent draft memory, and after putting up near All-Star numbers a year ago, has improved again this season.

The 6’8 Collins is averaging 21.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, shooting 58 percent from the field and over 40 percent from three. His a rim-running nightmare for defenders, and can throw down any lob that’s thrown anywhere near him.

As he comes to the end of his third year in the league, the forward has a chance to earn a major paycheck, as he’ll become eligible for a rookie extension this summer. Although a deal wouldn’t kick in until he’s off his rookie deal in 2021, he would get a modest boost on that final year.

He’s a prime candidate for an extension, and while there were some odd rumors that the Hawks were open to trading Collins at the Deadline, they’d be risking letting him walk by not offering a extension. Now, they just have to decide on a figure that works for both sides.

According to The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner (subscription required), Collins is set to ask for a max or near-max deal, which is understandable. We have yet to see GM Travis Schlenk re-sign anyone that owns future value like JC does, but he may want to talk the forward’s price down a bit to build a better team around him.

In 2019, three players (Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray, Pascal Siakam) from the 2016 NBA Draft signed max deals, which others getting big deals as well. It’s hard to put an exact figure on exactly what a John Collins max deal would be with the NBA salary cap changing frequency, but Siakam’s four-year, $129 million extension is comparable. A max contract would net Collins 25% of the yearly cap number.

Perhaps more of a 1-1 comparison for Collins is Indiana forward Domantas Sabonis, who signed a four-year extension between $77-$85 million based on incentives.

I think a fair deal for the two sides would be somewhere in between the Siakam and Sabonis deals. Again going back to last year’s extension class, Jaylen Brown of the Celtics signed the highest-paid deal without it being a max, agreeing to a four-year, $115 million deal that will make Brown $22 million in 2020-2021, going up by $2 million in each following year.

If John Collins is dead set on going max money, he could always turn down an extension and enter restricted free agency the following year, which would obviously give the Hawks the chance to match any deal. If not, there’s recent blueprints to that help the two sides make a deal work.

It’s gearing up to be a very entertaining off-season in the ATL.