NBA Mock Draft with a simulated lottery.
As we continue into April without NBA or NCAA basketball, it’s truly an unprecedented time in the NBA mock draft world. Not only did we not get to see top prospects one more time in March Madness, we still don’t know if the NBA season will resume, or if the current lottery standings will stay put.
Currently, the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Minnesota Timberwolves own the three worst records in the league, thus sharing the best odds of landing the #1 pick. The Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls follow them closely and still have a shot at catching them if play resumes.
For this mock draft, we simulated the lottery via Tankathon, which gave some fun results. The Hawks won the lottery with a 12.5 percent chance of doing so. Chicago and Charlotte were also winners, both jumping up five spots to grab the second and third overall picks.
The Warriors were the biggest losers, dropping to the fifth pick while Cleveland also dropped four spots to the sixth pick. Full results are below:
Simulated lottery results:
- 1st: Atlanta Hawks
- 2nd: Chicago Bulls
- 3rd: Charlotte Hornets
- 4th: Minnesota Timberwolves
- 5th: Golden State Warriors
- 6th: Cleveland Cavaliers
- 7th: Detroit Pistons
- 8th: New York Knicks
- 9th: Washington Wizards
- 10th: Phoenix Suns
- 11th: San Antonio Spurs
- 12th: Sacramento Kings
- 13th: New Orleans Pelicans
- 14th: Portland Trail Blazers
It was a weird year for top freshmen in the NCAA. James Wiseman was suspended then dropped out, Anthony Edwards played so-so ball for a bad Georgia team and Cole Anthony dealt with injuries and lackluster production in Chapel Hill.
Despite, the #1 pick in most mocks is Edwards, who showed enough flash in Athens to be drafted here by the Hawks.
The Atlanta native managed to make the All-SEC team despite disappointing play, still putting up solid enough stats. He averaged 19.1 points per game but needed nearly 16 shots per game to do so. A role where he’s less of an offensive focal point in the NBA is necessary to have him work on his consistency.
The Hawks have a plethora of young wings like Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter to go along with their big three of Trae Young, John Collins, and Clint Capela. A selection of Edwards would boost their perimeter defense and give the 18-year-old time to develop his offensive game.
Edwards doesn’t bring the sure-fire upside that most first picks do, but the Hawks have enough young assets to take a chance on the high-ceiling Edwards.
The Bulls draft for need here, and Ball might actually be the best player available as well. The 6’7 point guard provides tremendous size for his position and plays up to it. Ball averaged nearly eight rebounds per game in his short 12-game career in the NBL.
In total with the Illawarra Hawks, the third Ball brother averaged 17.0 points and 6.8 assists per game to go along with the rebounds, shooting just 37 percent from the field.
Kris Dunn is headed to restricted free agency, and pairing Ball with Zach LaVine and Coby White would instantly create a very solid backcourt. His play-making would be readily untapped in Chicago, with the Bulls rostering more talent than most other teams in the early lottery.
Ball could compete for a starting role from the get, and contribute right away in the assist and rebound categories while working on his shooting.
No one player as helped their draft stock more during the NCAA season than Toppin, who won the AP Player of the Year as a sophomore after hardly being recruited out of high school. The 6’9 forward could be a bit of a reach for Charlotte, as he’s usually mocked in the mid-to-late lottery, but he’d bring instant excitement to a team that hasn’t had much of that lately.
Toppin is an athletic freak, and a good bet to be a future slam dunk champion. He throws down with authority and lives above the rim. If nothing else, he’ll be an elite rim-runner from day one.
He’s not just limited to his dunks offensively and boasts both a respectable mid-range and three-point shot as well. He shot 63 percent from the field with high usage for Dayton and can make his own shot in the post on occasion.
Defensive tape on Toppin range from bad to really bad, and that, combined with his draft age of 22 is why he’s not in the #1 pick conversation.
Still, the Hornets get another young frontcourt piece to develop alongside P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges, and get one of the most exciting players in the draft.
The T-Wolves grab a talented wing to help fill in their roster between Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell. The 19-year-old Advija has had an accomplished career overseas, winning the under-20 FIBA MVP before playing solid minutes for Maccabi Tel Aviv this season.
In 47 appearances, Advija averaged 7.7 points and 4.1 rebounds in 19.8 minutes per game, showing point forward potential. As a top international prospect, he’ll get a lot of comparisons to Luka Doncic, but I see him more as a Ben Simmons-type.
Just like Simmons, Advija’s biggest question mark coming into the NBA will be his shooting, which was inconsistent at best. He shot 33 percent from three, and a pretty terrible 52 percent from the free-throw line. Watching some tape won’t reveal a hitch in his shot, so the fundamentals are there, he just needs to knock them down more consistently.
Size-wise (6’9) he can play either forward position, although his athletic ability lets him play more like a guard, and Minny should be able to play him basically wherever they want. Advija could take a year or two to adjust to the league but should be able to have a nice career.
The Warriors caught a break after falling to the fifth pick, landing Wiseman who’d they probably take with the first pick. Wiseman makes a ton of sense for Golden State, who look to compete for a playoff spot once again next season.
The 7’1 center has had a tumultuous year, playing just three games for Memphis after being the near-consensus #1 recruit out of high school. In that small sample size, he showed why he could be the next elite rim-protector, blocking nine total shots including five in his second game.
As a senior in high school, Wiseman averaged 5.5 blocks per game, using every inch of his 7’6 wingspan to do so. He also averaged nearly 15 rebounds per contest.
offensively, Wiseman is not as solid, and won’t be scoring more than a few feet away from the hoop. With a load of offensive weapons like Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and even Draymond Green, the Dubs can afford to play someone with his offensive limitations. It’s a great fit.
The Cavs are set at guard, with Darius Garland and Collin Sexton looking like studs, and they had a fairly talented frontcourt as well. While I highly doubt both Kevin Love and Andre Drummond are on the team next season, the Cavs still pass on a big man like Onyeka Okongwu here, instead, taking the small forward Okoro.
The Auburn product had a fantastic start to the season, shooting up draft boards in a hurry after being a mid-tier prospect out of HS (40th on the ESPN 100). His production dropped off a bit in conference play but still showed enough to be taken in the top-ten.
He projects to be a quality defender instantly and has the tools and motor to potentially make an All-NBA Defensive Team in the future. He was named to the All-SEC defensive team as a freshman, averaging nearly a steal and block per game.
On the other end of the court, Okoro can get hot but is not yet consistent. He shot less than 30 percent from three, less than 70 percent from the stripe. He works better as a slasher and does well in transition, but his jumper needs polishing.
Likely the first piece of a long rebuild in the Motor City, Hayes has a nice balance of pro-readiness and future potential. The 6’5 combo guard does a lot of things well on the court and looks confident with the ball in his hands at just 18.
As a playmaker, Hayes is ready to roll in the NBA and he might have the best court vision in the class. He’s athletically gifted and combined with his tight handles, can make shots for himself and others.
His left-handed jumper is clean, and Hayes’ arsenal of shots features a step-back that creates a nice amount of separation, a la James Harden’s. As a three-point shooter overall, Hayes has room to improve. He shot 29 percent in his final season overseas, taking over three per game.
The turnovers really have to go, and his average of 3.2 per game may even get worse in the competitive NBA. He also averaged three fouls per game, a good boilerplate of his aggressive defense.
Not that any of the remaining prospects are bad, but there does seem to be a bit of a drop off after Hayes. With the near-consensus top-seven off the board, it almost feels like the Knicks are starting the next phase of the draft.
The pick here is Cole Anthony, who would be drafted by New York 29 years after his father, Greg Anthony, did in 1991. Cole is yet another young point guard for the Knicks to take a chance on and hopefully, the start of a new era for the Knicks’ backcourt.
Anthony badly hurt his draft stock in his one season in Chapel Hill, struggling with efficiency on offense and overall play on defense. It’s worth noting that he missed a month of play with an injury after a decent start, playing considerably worse after the break.
The 6’3 point guard went from being in the conversation for the first overall pick in the preseason, to now, where some draft pundits have him outside the lottery. Somewhere in the middle is his most likely landing place, and if he shows the talent that made him a 5-star recruit in the NBA, the Knicks could have gotten a steal.
The Wizards should finally have John Wall back when the new season kicks off (whenever that is), once again forming one of the league’s backcourts along with Bradley Beal. Even when those two were at their peak a few years ago, the team has always needed a big man, and Okongwu can finally fill that role.
With the same ninth overall pick a year ago, the team took Rui Hachimura, who has had a respectable rookie campaign but has not looked good defensively. Okongwu can be his antithesis, as the USC big man could be the best interior defender in the class.
He blocked 2.7 shots per game for USC as a freshman, adding over a steal per game as well. He’s not completely one-sided however and gets it done on the other end as a rim-runner.
On the glass, he’s a menace and his rebound rate should transition nicely into the NBA. He plays like a center, but his 6’9 frame puts him in the middle ground between the four and five. His athleticism should allow him to play the five without being bullied too much by bigger centers.
There would have to be some discussion about taking Nico Mannion, the Phoenix native who’s coming off a rough freshman season in Tucson, but they take Haliburton instead here.
He’s a better player, at least on paper, and could be the steal of the lottery. The Iowa State sophomore does just about everything well; he shoots at a high rate, sets up his teammates with ease, grabs plenty of boards for his size and plays tough D as well.
Haliburton shot over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from three with a high usage rate, still managing 6.5 assists per contest. At 20 years of age, he may be the most pro-ready point guard in the class.
A broken wrist suffered in February ended his collegiate career and may scare a few teams off, but it shouldn’t. Haliburton projects to be a well-rounded offensive player who could finally give Devin Booker some backcourt help in the desert.
It’s still unclear if the San Antonio Spurs are finally going to blow it up and rebuild or go all-in for one more run with Popovich, so here they take someone who can help them in whatever direction they decide to go.
Vassell likely isn’t going to compete for the Rookie of the Year or anything, but still should be able to contribute right away if the Spurs do want to compete. If they want to hit the rebuild button, he’s as good of a first piece as you’ll get with the 11th pick.
The 6’7 wing boasts tremendous 3-and-D potential, shooting over 40 percent from deep as a sophomore Seminole. His defensive rating of 93.6 was better than previously drafted players such as Anthony Edwards, Onyeka Oknogwu, as well as Kentucky freshman Tyrese Maxey who is also expected to go in the late lottery.
Even as a lethal shooter, Vassell is an unselfish player, and isn’t afraid to pass out of a good shot for a great one. He can also put the ball on the floor on occasion and is competent enough to run in transition.
Others will have higher ceilings, but Vassell will carry a great floor, especially for the 12th pick.
The Kings are trending in the right direction, and are missing just one piece to push them over the edge and finally break their 14-year playoff drought. RJ Hampton, who decided to play in Australia’s NBL instead of the NCAA could be that piece.
Perhaps due to him playing just 15 games with the NZ Breakers, Hampton’s draft range is quite large. He’s a darkhorse top-five pick, but could even fall out of the lottery. Like Cole Anthony above, any team that drafts him will be doing so on the potential he showed in high school alone.
He averaged 32.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.9 steals and 6.4 assists per game as a junior before deciding to forgo his senior season at Little Elm High School. In his short time in the NBL, he averaged 8.8 points, 3.9 rebounds and nearly as many turnovers (1.5) as assists (2.4).
In Sacramento, he’d be able to spend some time on the bench behind De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield and develop his game.
The Pelicans have a roster full of young talent and hitting on this pick would be a bonus, but not a necessity. Saddiq Bey can come in and be an instant contributor for New Orleans, who hope to make the playoffs next season.
Bey is a fantastic three-point sniper, making over 45 percent of his 5.6 deep attempts per game as a sophomore. At 6’8, Bey is not afraid to shoot over smaller guards and often drained threes without his feet being set.
At the moment, he brings his perimeter scoring and not much else to the table, but there’s always room for improvement. He has the athleticism and size combo that could let him be a serviceable defender down the road.
E’Twaun Moore is headed to free agency this summer, and the Pelicans can fill his bench role right away with Bey.
The Blazers need to give Dame Lillard and C.J. McCollum more frontcourt help, and with Haasan Whiteside likely wanting a big paycheck this summer, should look to the draft to make it happen. The problem is, there is a significant drop off when it comes to big men in the class after Wiseman, Toppin, and Oknogwu. It’s a very guard-heavy class, the one position Portland doesn’t need.
They could be a target to try and trade up to grab one of those three, but if they stay put, they wouldn’t have to reach too far down to grab Stewart. The Washington freshman split opinions of draft pundits throughout the year, with many noting his style of playing not being ideal for the modern NBA.
Stewart flashed two-way potential as a Husky, looking good on the boards as well. He’s crafty in the post and has nice footwork on that end of the court. Defensively, he’s a bit stiff and lacks elite athleticism. Smaller wings and guards should be able to easily blow past him on the perimeter.
He shot 20 threes in his 32 collegiate games, making just five and lacks much of a mid-range game as well. Stewart will do his work in the paint, and if he’s able to do so at an elite level at both ends, he will be worth a lottery pick.
Maxey had an up-and-down season, showing real flash as an offensive threat. He gets to the rim in a hurry and while his finishing could use some polishing, projects to be a talented slasher. The Magic roster is an interesting mix of sturdy veterans and young talent and could use more players who can get their own shot.
Maxey is less qualified from deep, making just 29 percent of his threes as a freshman. At 6’3, he’s undersized for a two-guard and would need to make significant strides in his ball-handling and play-making to ever slide down to the one.
He relies on his intensity and motor on the other end of the court, lacking natural defensive tools. That doesn’t make him a great fit in Steve Clifford’s defensive-minded coaching scheme, but the upside of an elite scorer is enough for Orlando to roll the dice on Maxey.
If Nico Mannion will fall on draft night no longer seems to be the question. Instead, the question now is: how far will Nico Mannion fall? The near-certain slip for Mannion is due to two main reasons.
First, he’s outside of the top-four point guards in the class (Ball, Haliburton, Hayes, Anthony) and really only four teams need a point guard. Second, he’s coming off a very disappointing season for Arizona after being a top recruit.
With the deadline acquisition of D’Angelo Russell, the T-Wolves aren’t exactly hurting for a point guard, but with their second top-20 pick, they can afford to take a chance on a player like Mannion.
If nothing else, the 6’3 point guard is fun to watch and his tight handle will land him on some highlight reels as a rook. He has a lot to work on at the next level, but for the 16th pick, Minnesota is getting a lot of potential.
Make it two Wildcats in a row with Mannion’s backcourt teammate heading to Boston. The Celtics are obviously in win-now mode and Green can contribute right away for them.
The 6’6 wing should be among the best defenders in the class overall and is perhaps the best on the perimeter. He uses quick feet and shifty hands to get under the skin of opponents, averaging over a steal-and-a-half per game as a freshman.
He should be able to bring that defensive intensity to the pros easily but will need to work on his offense. He has the potential to be a great 3-and-D guy but the ‘3’ just isn’t there yet. He makes up that a bit with his athleticism which could be really unlocked by the C’s.
He could be this year’s Matisse Thybulle.
McDaniels is this class’ most intriguing project pick, and whatever team drafts him will need to devote 2-3 years for him to develop. The 6’10 forward is as talented as he is raw, and if he’s able to reign in his athleticism, he could be a very good player in the league.
A near-lock to go in the lottery preseason, he’ll most likely be available here or even later, thanks in large part to a very lackluster season in Seattle. In his one season as a Husky, he averaged just 13.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, recording more turnovers than assists. McDaniels shot just 40 percent from the field and 33 percent from three.
While the offense will take time, his defense should be better from day one. He has quick feet considering his frame and can feasibly play the three, four or even five in small-ball scenarios.
A few months or even a full season in the G-League could do a lot of favors for McDaniels who has sky-high potential.
The 7-foot Serbian is one of the draft’s most mysterious prospects, likely because of the fact there just isn’t much game footage of him. He dominated the under-18 European Championships a while back but played just 12 games for Olympiacos B this year.
Teams could fall in love with Pokuševski’s size, and the inevitable comparisons to Kristaps Porzingis could make him a late riser in the draft process. Like McDaniels above, he won’t be contributing at a high level right away, but the Bucks can afford to draft and stash a player like this. Currently, it’s unknown if the 18-year-old is coming to the league after being drafted or not.
He has the potential to be a dominant interior defender one day in the NBA, and if he can continue to work on his three-point shot, can become a lethal floor-stretching big.
The Nets need to start filling in their roster as they look forward to their first year of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant together, and Paul Reed is as pro-ready of a pick as they come in the 20s.
The soon-to-be 21-year-old played three seasons for DePaul, raising his draft stock each year. He was a fantastic defender as a junior and made the All-Big East first team. Reed averaged 15.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 1.9 steals per game.
He was asked to do more than he should have for a fairly bad Blue Demons team and should be able to be a very efficient scorer in a lesser role in the NBA. The Nets have their star players, and with Reed, start to gain some depth off the bench.
I’m higher on Jones than most, and while I understand the offensive limitations, Jones’ defensive tenacity can’t be ignored. The 6’2 point guard is a phenomenal perimeter defender, and while he likely will never be an All-Star at the next level, he can be among the best defenders at his position.
Denver already has a solid defensive unit, and Jones would only help in that and add to their already deep backcourt. Jones wouldn’t be asked to do much offensively but can surprise with his playmaking at times.
There is a real upside to taking the proven winner, and Jones should be able to carve out a nice career as a role player, just as his brother Tyus has.
The Sixers, who were underwhelming this season, could have a lot of change upcoming this summer. I would guess that this pick is used as trade bait, but if they keep it they can grab Ramsey who should be able to play right away at the next level.
Ramsey projects to be a solid catch-and-shoot weapon and had made strides as a passer as the season went on. He recorded four or more assists in five of his last six collegiate games, and the Sixers could have more to unlock there.
The so-so defense will keep him from going much earlier than this, and he probably will never be a top-tier defender at the next level, but won’t be awful either. He has the size and athleticism to at least stay in front of his opponent.
The Sixers already have a very deep roster, and Ramsey can only help their bench.
Lewis helped his draft stock immensely as a sophomore, averaging 18.5 points, 5.2 assists and 1.8 steals per game. He was named to the All-SEC First Team a year after making the All-Freshman team a year ago.
The ‘Bama point guard lacks elite size or explosiveness, but his 36 percent three-point percentage should translate well. Play-making will always be his headlining talent, and rightfully so. He takes chances, which can lead to turnovers but can also lead to game-changing dimes.
Goran Dragic is aging and set to be a free agent, and Lewis can come in and add to the Heat’s young backcourt that already features Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro. Lewis is still just 18 (for a few more days) and his sophomore tag shouldn’t scare anyone away.
Between Enes Kanter, Rudy Gobert, and Dante Exum, the Jazz have experienced the highs, lows and middle ground of taking an international prospect. They roll the dice on another one here, taking the young guard from France.
Especially for an international project, Maldeon isn’t a sexy pick per se, and drafting of him would be based on potential alone. For ASVEL in the Euroleague this season, he averaged less than 20 minutes per game, not putting up any numbers that jump off the page. He is smart and confident with the ball in his hands, and confidence shouldn’t be an issue for the former LNB MVP.
His age, size, and play-making potential should be enough to make him a first-round pick, but Utah will have a lot to work to do with Maledon before he’s NBA ready.
It would be interesting to see where Achiuwa would go in the draft if his frontcourt running mate, James Wiseman, didn’t leave Memphis after just three games. Achiuwa put up good stats without Wiseman, but neither he or his team didn’t have quite the success they could have had with them both.
It’s all about size and defense for Achiuwa, who maximizes his 7’2.5 wingspan at the power forward position. He blocked just under two shots and scored just over 15 points per game in his lone year under Penny Hardaway, winning the AAC Rookie of the Year.
Both Danillo Gallinari and Nerlens Noel are going to be free agents this summer, and a selection of Achiuwa would give the Thunder frontcourt a young refresher. A potential pairing next to Steven Adams should be intimidating to anyone who looks to score in the OKC paint.
Williams slides a bit in this mock draft, and I even considered giving the Celtics Williams with their last pick of 17. Williams that second group of big men that includes Isaiah Stewart, Precious Achiuwa and Paul Reed, and falls to the end of that group here.
The ACC Sixth Man of the Year won’t turn 19 until August, one of the youngest in the class. He has the potential to grow past his current 6’8 frame. He’s currently a bit undersized which was shown when he averaged just 4.0 rebounds in 22.5 minutes per game.
He does have a nice touch from both inside and on the perimeter, and will only improve his floor-spacing three which he drained 32 percent of last year. He averaged 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game as well and keeps himself busy on that end of the court.
His athleticism is explosive but raw and if the C’s (or whoever drafts him) are able to hone that in, he could be a dynamic two-way player.
Nesmith projects to be one of the best offensive threats in the draft, and easily the best outside the lottery. The problem is, he also projects to be one of the worst defenders in the class as well.
As a sophomore Commodore, Nesmith made 52 percent of his thees, of which he attempted over eight per game. The asterisk is he played just 14 games before a foot injury cost him the rest of the season. As a freshman, he shot 47 percent from three, so it wasn’t just a hot start.
He probably will never be anything more than a spot-up shooter but could be a very good one for a long time in the league. Only three teams shot a worse percentage from three this season than the Knicks and only the Pacers took fewer attempts per game. Nesmith can really boost their three-point attack.
If there’s a weak spot on the defending champ’s roster it’s center and neither Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka aren’t getting any younger. Oturu likely won’t be able to replace those names right away but could be able to a few years down the road.
Oturu is perhaps the lone true center in the draft that is more gifted offensively than defensively, which can be seen as either a negative or positive. He’s not a horrid defender by any means, even averaging 2.5 blocks per game as a sophomore. He will be drafted on his ability to score, however.
The 6’10 center is effective in the post and owns a fairly consistent mid-range game as well. His three-ball is inconsistent but he can hit a few if left open. In a draft class that’s not beaming with big men who can create their own looks, Oturu should be able to hear his name called in the first round.
I’d be surprised if the win-now Lakers didn’t try and trade this pick for a veteran who can contribute right away, but if they do keep it, Smith is a nice grab for them. He made both the Big-Ten First Team and All-Defense teams, taking majors strides in his second season under Mark Turgeon.
Smith improved his field goal percentage up to 54 percent from 49 as a freshman, taking over an extra shot per game. Defensively, his block totals nearly doubled in similar minutes, as his steals. He’s both strong and tall enough to protect the point, agile and long to defend on the perimeter. He’s perhaps the most switch-able big in the class.
He really excels on the glass, however, and should be able to grab a good amount of boards from his debut on. Questions about his upside are warranted, and Smith likely won’t become this draft’s Pascal Siakam or anything. He should be a solid role player in the league, however, and trade bait/injury insurance for the Lakers.
While I think it’s highly unlikely the Celtics hold on to all three of the first-rounders they have now, let’s take stock of who they’ve taken thus far in this mock. First, they took shooting guard Josh Green, and then they selected a big man in Patrick Williams. Here, they take a small forward from Louisville, Jordan Nwora.
Nwora was a lock to be a first-rounder in the 2019 draft, perhaps even a late lottery pick, but decided to return to Louisville for his junior season, surprising many. His numbers were nearly identical to his sophomore numbers, and that combined with the fact he’ll turn 22 before the season starts, could push him out of the first round entirely.
The forward boasts good shooting splits and a non-stop motor on D, but the upside is lacking. He’ll likely never be anything more than a catch-and-shoot role player with semi-good size. He might be better suited to be taken by a lottery team in the early second round who’ll give him more playing time than a team like the Celtics would.
