Atlanta Hawks: All Eight Possible Lottery Outcomes, Ranked

Looking at the Atlanta Hawks’ eight possible landing spots in the NBA Draft Lottery.

The Atlanta Hawks have had the fourth-best lottery odds since NBA play halted play in mid-March due to COVID-19 scares. With the team being left out of the NBA’s Orlando bubble plan, they were finally locked into those odds, which give them a 12.5 percent chance of winning the first overall pick.

It’s a slight “improvement” over last year when the team finished with the fifth-best odds, eventually settling for the eighth pick, which they later flipped into the fourth and De’Andre Hunter.

Although they own the fourth-best odds this year, they technically have the second-best chance of winning the top pick, as the three teams with the worst records (Warriors, Cavaliers, T-Wolves) all share an identical 14 percent chance of coming out on top.

The worst pick the Hawks could grab is the eighth pick,  although, at just 2.2 percent, Atlanta’s likely range is 1-7. Speaking of percentages, I’ve ranked their eight possible landing spots below based on the current odds.

Rankings:

8th most likely: Eighth pick

As mentioned, the Hawks will have a 2.2 percent chance of landing here, but with only four other teams capable of grabbing the pick, there’s always a chance.

7th most likely: Fifth pick

Last year was the debut of the new lottery reform rules, which tries to sway teams away from completely tanking like the ‘Trust the Process’ Sixers did last decade. The new odds give the team with the worst record a huge chance of falling to the fifth pick, with Golden State carrying a 47.9 percent chance of falling here.

The Hawks will have a small chance of “stealing” the fifth pick away from them, holding 7.2 percent odds of doing so.

6th most likely: Fourth pick

Here’s an odd one, as while the Hawks will finish with the league’s fourth-worst record, they’ll have just an 11.5 percent chance of winning the fourth pick.

5th most likely: Third pick

An 11.9 percent chance that the Hawks end up with the third pick. The Hawks won the third pick with just over a 13 percent chance of doing so two years ago, paving the way from them to draft Luka Doncic and acquire Trae Young.

4th most likely: Second pick

The Atlanta Hawks have used the second overall pick just once before, taking Marvin Williams back in 2005, famously leaving Chris Paul on the board. They’ll have a 12.2 percent chance of landing there to try and make up for that this year.

Last year, the Memphis Grizzlies won the second pick with the eighth-highest odds of doing so, allowing them to take likely Rookie of the Year Ja Morant.

3rd most likely: First pick

All things considered, it’s not bad for the first pick being the Hawks’ third-most likely landing point. They’ll still need some luck on their side, as the 12.5 percent odds are only pretty in comparison to other team’s odds.

The Pelicans won the Zion-lottery last year with less than half those odds (six percent).

2nd most likely: Seventh pick

The worst landing spot possible if you ignore the tiny 2.2 percent chance they have to land in the eight-hole, the Hawks have a 16.7 percent chance of grabbing the seventh pick.

The Bulls were in the Hawks’ same shoes last season with the fourth-best odds and landed in this seventh spot, taking Coby White out of UNC.

Most likely landing spot: Sixth pick

Atlanta’s most likely landing spot by quite a bit, the Hawks have a 25.7 percent chance of grabbing the first pick outside the top-five. If you’re running the simulator on Tankathon, they’ll land here over a quarter of the time.

Together, the Hawks have a 42.4 percent chance of winning the sixth or seventh pick, just about the same odds they have of getting a top-four selection (48.1 percent).

For simplicity matters, here’s a quick rundown of their complete lottery odds:

• 1st pick: 12.5%
• 2nd pick: 12.2%
• 3rd pick: 11.9%
• 4th pick: 11.5%
• 5th pick: 7.2%
• 6th pick: 25.7%
• 7th pick: 16.7%
• 8th pick: 2.2%

What do you make of the Atlanta Hawks’ lottery odds?

All odds courtesy of Tankathon.com