When the Atlanta Hawks failed to sign John Collins to a rookie max extension, they opened the door for other teams to potentially sign Collins to a max deal in the coming offseason. This is why Dan Favale of B/R believes that Collins will be one of the top five overpaid free agents this offseason.
The other four likely to be overpaid are Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Norman Powell, and Duncan Robinson. Each one of these players has desired skills that will help many teams in the NBA, but none of them have the skillset of Collins and therefore he will command huge offers.
Where Collins has lifted his asking price is that he has shown that he is capable of averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds every night over the season. This level of production is coveted amongst NBA teams and will have many teams calling his agent to discuss terms.
The Atlanta Hawks may pay for the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes fallout
The reason there is going to be so much money about to be thrown at free agents this summer is teams were preparing their books to offer the kitchen sink at Giannis Antetokounmpo. That is if he did not sign his extension with the Milwaukee Bucks. Well, he did sign his extension and now there are a large number of NBA teams with large amounts of cap space.
The free-agent class became weaker when Antetokounmpo signed his deal. It is highly unlikely that Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, or Mike Conley are going anywhere. DeMar DeRozan is going to command max money. Other than that, Collins is the best of the rest. Here are two teams the Hawks may have to compete with for Coilins’ signature.
Atlanta Hawks competitor no. 1) Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets are rebuilding their squad nicely. They drafted LaMelo Ball with the third pick in the 2020 NBA draft. The Hawks have seen firsthand just how good Ball is, and can certainly see how good he is going to be.
Ball is their point guard of the future and has the potential to be better than his older brother Lonzo. He has formed a good on-court relationship with the team superstar Gordon Hayward, who the Hornets signed to a long-term deal last offseason.
However, where the Hornets fall down is they do not have many guaranteed contracts. Outside of the aforementioned players, they only have Vernon Carey jr who is guaranteed beyond the 2021-22 season. In fact, the Hornets have five players coming out of contract next season.
The means that the Hornets have only $81 million worth of guaranteed contracts on their books this year. However, this could be their downfall. While the Hawks may have to squeeze Collins in with their offseason commitments which are Trae Young and Kevin Huerter‘s rookie extensions.
However, the difference between this season and last season is that the Hawks are winning. They have qualified for offseason action and their roster is such that barring major injuries to a number of key players, they will be one of the best teams in the league next season. Collins may have to decide between money and success.
Atlanta Hawks competitor no. 2) Miami Heat
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According to B/R, the other major competitor for the Hawks for Collins signature is the Miami Heat. While they also have very few guaranteed contracts on their books for next season they have the famed culture that players thrive in.
Another point in their favor is the players they have under contract. Jimmy Butler has two more years, and Bam Adebayo locked up for another five years. If they were able to sign Collins then they have the makings of another big three.
It would be preferable for the Hawks if the Heat offered Collins a deal. They have $112 million of salary on their books. They have two team options included in this, one is Goran Dragic which is worth $19.4 million, the other is Andre Iguodala which is worth $15.0 million.
They may offer Collins a smaller first year on his deal in order to fit him in and keep these two players. The Hawks will happily match a smaller deal which will lock him up as a member of the Hawks franchise for the next five years.
Collins is going to probably be offered huge money from multiple teams. What the Hawks need to do is sell the fact that they are winning and in a tremendous position to contend in the next couple of seasons. Otherwise, Collins may end up chasing the money over success, therefore leaving the Hawks.