When the Atlanta Hawks take on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday, it will mark the 12th Game 5 this postseason. Teams who have won Game 5 in a best-of-seven series went on to win that series just over 82 percent of the time. This postseason, that number is down to 72 percent (8-3) but four of those wins came in closeouts.
When you adjust for gentleman’s sweeps, Game 5 winners are 4-3 in series wins. That there is much less of an advantage this season is emblematic of a postseason ravaged by injuries.
For Atlanta, Trae Young is listed as questionable for Thursday as he continues to recover from the bone bruise he suffered in Game 3. The Bucks are in even worse shape as Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a hyperextended knee in the third quarter of Game 4 and is doubtful for Thursday.
The Atlanta Hawks have seen several trends take shape in the Eastern Conference Finals
It will be the third Game 5 for the Hawks, a setting in which they are 2-0. Historically, it hasn’t been as favorable though. Dating back to 1957, the Hawks are just 17-24 in Game 5s.
We’ll lean into the randomness of these playoffs and how well the Hawks have performed here.
So what has happened in this postseason and, specifically, against Milwaukee that could see Atlanta join the Phoenix Suns in reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in (well) over 25 years? What can they do to give themselves the best chance regardless of whether either team’s superstar plays or not?
It starts with getting stops.
Atlanta Hawks key trend to watch for No. 1: Playing the passing lanes has been a surprising strength
One of the bigger recent storylines for Atlanta has been the health of Bogdan Bogdanovic whose knee soreness was a major concern coming into this series. But even while he was shooting poorly he was making a positive impact, albeit in an unexpected way. Bogdanovic leads all players in steals this postseason with 26.
During the six-game stretch before his Game 4 explosion, Bogdanovic averaged just 6.2 points on 26.8 percent shooting while going 16.7 percent from three-point range. He managed to notch 12 steals though, nearly doubling his average from the regular season.
In Game 4, Bogdanovic had four more steals (on top of dropping 20 for the third time this postseason) and Cam Reddish had two takeaways of his own in a stellar second career playoff game.
The Hawks took the ball away from the Bucks 11 times leading to 16 points. It was their first time winning the turnover battle in this series and something they struggled with in the last series as well, as they lost the turnover battle against the 76ers but, obviously, ultimately won.
They’ve been able to overcome it but they are playing with fire that way.
Thanks in large part to how much he handles the ball, Young is third in the postseason in total turnovers. If he plays in Game 5, he will have to be extra cautious with the ball as the Bucks would undoubtedly pressure when he has it. In many ways, his absence from Game 4 kept Milwaukee from pressuring any of Atlanta’s ball-handlers.
So, while Bogdanovic’s steals have been huge, they won’t mean a thing if the Hawks revert to giving the ball away more than they take it.
Speaking of taking it, the Hawks should remember they don’t always have to on offense.
Atlanta Hawks key trend to watch for No. 2: Moving the ball will keep the defense off-balance, just like in Game 4
Atlanta got 26 assists in Game 4, a truly remarkable number considering who they had to roll with. Lou Williams, an 18-year vet, gave it his all in his first career playoff start, joining Bogdanovic with 20 points and the duo combining for 13 assists. Kevin Huerter turned in seven dimes of his own and all three players had just three turnovers.
The Hawks made 293 total passes and had five secondary assists in the win. They average just 257 passes and 3.8 assists for the series. For the postseason they’re at 241 and 2.6, respectively.
Young’s usage rate is the highest in the league in the Conference Finals. While he is at his best with the ball, he needs to use his playmaking ability to set up the play that leads to the basket more than looking for the direct assist.
Milwaukee’s defenders are too good to let them get set.
To his credit, Young has delivered just how his team has needed him to this postseason. There is no reason to think he won’t be mindful if he even plays.
The rest of the Hawks have shown they can beat the Bucks without Young, and were even doing so while dealing with a healthy Antetokounmpo. They can’t fall asleep if he were to sit out though because Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have both gone off for 30-plus in this series. That can’t happen again.
Atlanta has also been “letting Milwaukee off the hook”. The caveat is that it’s not entirely under their control.
Atlanta Hawks key trend to watch for No. 3: Getting to the free-throw line more should be a priority in Game 5
The Hawks are shooting 77.4 percent from the free-throw line in the Eastern Conference Finals. And while this marks the third straight series they’ve seen their average at the line fall, they are still besting the Bucks who are shooting just 67.1 percent as a team. They’ve been the second-worst free-throw shooting team in the postseason.
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Too bad the Hawks haven’t been able to take advantage as they were outshot 19-13 and have attempted 62 free throws in four games while the Bucks have attempted a total of 70.
That’s just an eight-point disparity, but it wouldn’t be listed here if it were that simple.
Danilo Gallinari, whose veteran presence has been invaluable, is tied for second on the team with two attempts per game.
In the two games in Atlanta, the Hawks have actually attempted 11 fewer free throws than the Bucks. But when the venue switches to Milwaukee, where Game 5 will take place, the Hawks have a three-attempt advantage.
There are several variables at play here, not the least of which is who was officiating the game. But the type of foul that led to the free throw is also important. Was it a three, an and-one, or two points the hard way? Any one of those could change how you’d view the difference in free throw attempts between the two teams.
Except the Hawks have been penalized 13 more times than the Bucks (four more in Game 4). This isn’t too much of a surprise given Milwaukee’s defensive pedigree.
The Hawks have been able to bring the foul calls to a draw and the free throw attempts within four in the second half of games in this series. But the Bucks are plus-13 in fouls drawn and plus-12 in free throw attempts in the first half.
Be it a need for more aggression early or just the growing pains of a young team in its first postseason, they need to take better advantage of their superior efficiency at the free-throw line.