Atlanta Hawks fans have been getting bombarded the past few weeks with rumors about John Collins who is set to be a restricted free agent. That continued on Tuesday when Shams Charania of The Athletic reported that the market for Collins is expected to be robust, including teams like the Dallas Mavericks and division-rival Miami Heat.
This could put the Hawks in a bind. They’ve been vocal about wanting to retain his services. But the powers that be have also been clear they won’t go above what they view as a fair value.
For Collins, who averaged 17.6 points and 7.4 rebounds while sacrificing some personal glory, that just means whatever a team is willing to pay. But for Atlanta, that has to mean they maintain some flexibility with several other core players needing financial attention soon.
Trae Young is at the top of the list, and his rookie max is as close to a guaranteed done deal as you could get. After him, though, is Kevin Huerter who proved to be much more than a jump shooter this past postseason. With several high-priced vets also on the roster, it’s easy to see how this could get ugly for the Hawks.
Further complicating matters is a relatively weak free-agent class at the position.
The Atlanta Hawks could turn to the trade market if John Collins price becomes to rich for their liking
The top names expected to be available are James Jones, Kelly Olynyk, and Paul Millsap. Olynyk is the youngest at 30. Montrezl Harrell could be an option if he follows along with his cryptic social media activity and opt-out in Los Angeles.
None of those names are suitable replacements for Collins, even if there is a limit to how much the Hawks are willing to pay him.
Alternatively, the NBA Draft might land them a solid prospect. But expecting a rookie capable of giving you 20 and 10 on any given night is beyond lofty. That leaves them with one option in which they can be proactive in the event Collins winds up elsewhere next season, the trade market. And they have some intriguing options too.
Atlanta Hawks: trade option at PF No. 1: Jerami Grant’s Olympic debut will make him a hot commodity this summer
Jerami Grant is coming off of a career year in his first season as the focal point for the Detroit Pistons. He averaged a career-best 22.3 points while chipping in 4.6 boards and 2.8 assists with 1.1 blocks for good measure. He also managed solid efficiency given the heightened expectations after spending his first seven seasons as a role player.
While they’d lose some offensive efficiency and athleticism going from Collins to Grant, the Hawks would gain some more perimeter defense without losing too much if anything inside.
It’s already a strength but the league is continuing to be more and more reliant upon strong perimeter both offensively and defensively. Teams can never have enough guys capable of switching defensively while Grant’s ability to carry an offense is a plus.
Of course, teams have been and will continue to check on the availability of Grant too. So far, they have been rebuffed; including some described and being “monster”. That jibes with the thinking of our friends over at Piston Powered who cite several reasons for the lack of motivation for the Pistons to part with a player they’ve prioritized to this point.
While The Athletic piece and the one from Piston Powered cite the lack of draft capital as a reason for Detroit’s hesitation — and rightfully so — perhaps a proven commodity sways them.
A sign-and-trade, however rare they may be, for Grant could scratch itches for both teams.
Atlanta would avoid losing Collins for nothing and could view the added defense of Grant as an upgrade. Detroit, meanwhile, could see the extra years of Collins’ prime (he’s four years younger) plus his highlight-reel dunks as worth it.
They can deny it all they want, Grant has just two years left on his deal and the Pistons finished with the worst record in the league last season.
A Phoenix Suns-like turnaround puts them two years and a Chris Paul-type addition away from contending. Turnarounds like the Hawks, where they found themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals after a basement finish would leave the Pistons in the position the Hawks are in now, forced to decide on a key piece of their turnaround at a critical time.
Atlanta Hawks: trade option at PF No. 2: Christian Wood signed with the Houston Rockets just last season but may still be available
Houston Rockets center Christian Wood is in a similar situation to Grant. A former Piston himself, Wood finally got his chance at a regular starting role and delivered for the still-woeful Rockets. And with there not being much of a path to immediate relevance in a tough, crowded West, it could serve Houston to continue planning for the future.
Wood will turn just 26 just before the start of next season, so it’s not as though he couldn’t be part of a rebuild.
But, again like Grant, his contract is up in just two years.
It could make more sense to lock in a player like Collins who profile much like Wood, who is three years younger. Perhaps they would accept some other form of compensation but the price tag without Collins would be high.
Though he played center for Houston, many also believe Wood is better suited to play the four (hence why he’s listed here) but that versatility could allow them to get more of their talented wing depth on the floor without sacrificing shooting as the 6-foot-10 Wood shot 37.4 percent from deep on 5.0 attempts per game.
Wood isn’t a bad free-throw shooter; he hit over 74 percent in his final year with Detroit. But he only converted 63 percent this past season in Houston.
Perhaps a move back to power forward — where he entered the league and spent his first five seasons — would allow him to improve already solid efficiency while maintaining his newfound level of production.
He did sign just this past offseason, though. And the Rockets, who have other plans on who to deal, have some interesting pieces in Kevin Porter, Jae’Sean Tate, and others. It might take their having interest in Collins already to help facilitate a deal like this. And both teams could realistically look at it and see it as too lateral of a move to pull off.
That’s just part of why sign-and-trades don’t happen often in the NBA. Still, this might be the least disruptive big move the Hawks could make.
Atlanta Hawks: trade option at PF No. 3: Tobias Harris finally produced in the playoffs but could still be on the outs in Philly
The Hawks had a front-row seat to Tobias Harris’ breakthrough in the postseason after repeatedly being a playoff disappointment. He averaged 21.8 points per game, nearly six points higher than his previous playoff best, and hauled in 8.5 boards which was actually a dip in his usual work on the glass. His 3.5 assists are similar to his rebounds.
It helps that his career-highs in efficiency during the regular season translated. Harris knocked down 48.8 percent of his looks, including 37.2 percent of his triples.
Against Atlanta, Harris was fourth in the series with 19.4 points per game in seven games.
He would have ranked second on the Hawks but that’s not even why this deal should interest both the Hawks and 76ers. It’s the way that Harris and Collins get their points that could make this a reality this offseason.
Reports are that Harris could be a casualty as Philadelphia tries at least one more time to make the Ben Simmons-Joel Embiid duo work. Some say he and Simmons cannot co-exist, in part, because Harris doesn’t shoot enough threes to spread the floor or cut as Simmons and Embiid need, especially late in the game.
On the Hawks, his ability to create his own offense throughout the game would be an instant upgrade over Collins.
Atlanta has enough snipers as is so Harris’ preference for the mid-range — something we’ve seen is a key to success in the playoffs — would be welcomed. Harris hit 39 percent of his pull-up jumpers and 42.9 percent of his shots between 15 and 19 feet in the playoffs.
The Hawks shot well from the mid-range in the playoffs but didn’t do it with volume.
That made them easy for the Milwaukee Bucks to defend. That was especially true with Trae Young and several others at less than full health if not completely absent. And given Harris’ usage rate was just two percentage points higher than Collins’, it wouldn’t necessarily disrupt the flow of Atlanta’s offense.
Where there wouldn’t be any upgrade is on defense as Harris is a worse defender than Collins. Luckily, the Hawks currently have a defensive-minded center in Capela (at least for now) who needs an offensive “big” next to him.
Atlanta Hawks: trade option at PF No. 4: Marvin Bagley has had a rough go so far but could follow a former teammate’s footsteps
Sometimes all it takes is a change of scenery for a player to find their footing in the NBA. The aforementioned Grant was never viewed as a focal point before last season. Similarly, Andrew Wiggins might not be what he was billed as upon entering the league, but he proved to be a very valuable, productive player for the Golden State Warriors.
Marvin Bagley could fall under the same category as Wiggins who came from the Minnesota Timberwolves, or current Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic, formerly of the Kings), an organization that hasn’t always maximized its talent.
The 6-foot-11 Bagley was compared to Collins during the draft process.
But he’s been rather stagnant as most of his numbers have remained the same. He shot a career-best 34.3 percent from deep but a career-worst 57.5 percent at the line.
Like many players nowadays, Bagley removed any mention of the Kings from his social media. What really got folks going was his liking a tweet saying “we gotta get @MB3FIVE outta Sac” which, to be fair, he shrugged off.
There was also the report from back in March that the Kings offered Bagley to the Hawks only for nothing to ever come of it. Now might be a good time to revisit the idea of a swap following that report from Charania. Of course, that would require the Hawks to soften on the stance they apparently took back in March.
An All-Rookie First Teamer, Bagley has only appeared in 108 out of 226 possible games.
Injuries have been the cause for most of that. Bagley also played in his fewest games in 2020, when the Kings tried to use him as a center. He’s been much more durable at power forward. Bagley is also a year younger than Collins, playing into a similar line of thinking as with Grant.
Even if the deal wasn’t Bagley (plus other assets) for Collins, the Hawks could still lose the latter. That means they should at least keep an eye on the former’s situation and price tag.
Atlanta Hawks: trade option at PF No. 5: Chris Boucher has his warts but could offer much of what Collins does at a fraction of the price
On a team that won a championship with Kawhi Leonard two seasons ago, and still boasts the likes of Fred Vanvleet and Pascal Siakam, the work of a player like Chris Boucher can go unnoticed. But the 6-foot-9 former Oregon Duck is among the league’s best when it comes to re-directing opponent’s shots.
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Per 36 numbers aren’t always reliable as rate stats and efficiency don’t always translate. But they can still be useful when trying to project a player into a larger role.
And they paint a pretty solid picture of the Raptors big man over the last three seasons.
Boucher is 10th in blocks per 36 minutes in that span. He ranks among names like two-time block champ Myles Turner of the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson, and even Collins.
He also checks in ahead of perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidates in Rudy Gobert (who won it for the third time this season) and Anthony Davis. Not too shabby for a player most casual fans may have never heard of. But that might ultimately be what makes him the perfect, low-cost solution in the event of a Collins departure.
In just over 24 minutes per game, Boucher displayed marked improvement for the third straight season, showing he can still get better despite being 28 already.
The knocks are surprisingly similar to those with Collins. His defenive rebounding, or lack thereof, led his head coach to call him out for his effort. Given his slight build — he’s listed at just 200 pounds — that may never improve how most would like.
A strong interior defender behind him, like Capela, would free him to clean up the play.
Boucher also technically won a ring as a rookie with the Golden State Warriors back in 2018. And, although he appeared in just one game that year, don’t underestimate the experience of being around two successful runs to the NBA Finals; something this team is likely deadset on doing themselves next season.