Atlanta Hawks: Can John Collins push for Most Improved Player?

Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins successfully bet on himself. After turning down a four-year, $90 million offer from the team during the season, the former Wake Forest Demon Deacon helped the team reach the Eastern Conference Finals. For his efforts, Collins was rewarded with a new contract worth up to $125 million.

He and Kevin Durant were the only players to average at least 17.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, and 1.0 blocks while shooting 39 percent from three-point range last season.

This season, with money in hand, and already being one of the best in team history, more will be expected of the 6-foot-9 forward.

Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins could make his case for Most Improved Player this season

Collins has already shown he has a high ceiling. He’s gone from 10.5 points and seven rebounds per game as a rookie to 21.6 points and 10.1 boards in his third year. Last season, his personal numbers took a hit to 17.6 points and 7.4 rebounds. But, by all accounts, Collins became a more complete player.

The most notable change has to be becoming more perimeter-oriented when center and 2021 rebounding champ Clint Capela arrived.

With Collins’ talent, though, there is no reason he can’t return to his stat-stuffing ways while still being the “more complete” version of himself. In fact, the latter almost requires a return to the former to be true.

If that happens, Collins will have a case for winning Most Improved Player when the season ends.

Last year’s winner, Julius Randle, saw his numbers go from 19.5 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists two seasons ago to a career-high 24.1 points, 10.2 boards, and 6.0 assists for the New York Knicks who, like the Hawks, broke a postseason drought. Randle made his first All-Star appearance and was named to the All-NBA Second Team.

For Collins, earning those two nominations for the first time would go a long way in helping him earn the Most Improved Player. He finished 23rd in All-Star voting among Eastern Conference frontcourt players last season so he has plenty of work to do.

He can start by being more efficient.

Collins’ 39.9 percent from beyond the arc was only slightly lower than his 40.1 percent from 2020. But he went from shooting 64.2 percent to 61.5 percent from inside the arc. Overall, Collins shot a career-low 55.6 percent from the floor.

For all of the talk of sacrifice, which loosely translates to stats, Collins’ usage was relatively the same over the last two seasons. It also took a much steeper drop off from his second to third years, when he put up career-highs in points, rebounds, and blocks. All of this just adds to the notion he can add to his output without adding to his ball dominance.

Becoming a better facilitator would also be a great way to bolster his chances at MIP. It’s something we’ve discussed briefly and it was also touched on by The Athletic’s Zach Harper in his report summarizing the team’s offseason.

Randle is a great example because he had put up numbers close to the ones he did last season in the past. But those increases couple with increased diversity in his skill set him apart.

Raising your scoring output by five points is one thing. Doing so while doubling your assists is a feat that takes skill and hard work, both things that Collins is hurting for. The biggest limiting factor will be his own roster

Et tu, Brute?

All offseason we have lauded the Hawks for the quality depth they boast. Well, that means a deep rotation that features a lot of talented non-John Collins scorers. But his versatility and track record mean that we shouldn’t expect anything less than a step forward next season. Whether or not he can parlay that into some hardware remains to be seen.

The handsome sum they paid him means that he is expected to be the second-best player on this team, consistently, going forward. If he meets that standard first, getting Most Improved Player along the way.