The Atlanta Hawks are off to a slower than expected start at 4-6 and have a daunting task ahead of them. Heading into the second leg of a four-game road trip, they’ll face the red-hot, Western Conference-leading Golden State Warriors. They’re 8-1, lead the league in points per game, third in field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point efficiency.
While the Hawks have been slightly better against the three-ball than you might expect; ranking 17th allowing opponents to can their triples at a 34.2 percent clip.
Unfortunately, that has come while they’ve allowed opponents to shoot 45.9 percent overall; just 25th in the NBA. Last season, they were 12th in overall defensive efficiency and third overall in defensive three-point efficiency.
The Atlanta Hawks should work for a slow, grind-it-out contest versus the Warriors
The Hawks biggest issue is that they have struggled to defend what the Warriors do does well offensively. But right behind that is that, right now, Golden State is good at defending what Atlanta does well or, at least what they should do well. That is attack the paint and shoot the three.
Golden State leads the league in fast break points, is second in opponent field goal percentage, third in opponents three-point percentage, and 12th in opponent’s field goal percentage in the paint.
The long ball makes up over 47 percent of their shot attempts and they’re shooting it at a 37.7 percent clip; fourth in the Association.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are allowing better shooting efficiency when they defend than not.
This could be a game where Clint Capela and John Collins need to show up big. While the Warriors are defending the paint well, they haven’t yet been tested as they will versus the Hawks on Monday night.
The vast majority of their collective attempts come inside where they’ll be met by Draymond Green and Kevon Looney.
Green could be formidable for Collins as a hard-nosed defender and professional agitator. Luckily Collins has gotten his habit of early foul trouble under control of late. He’s gone from averaging four fouls over the first five games down to 1.6 over the last five.
As for Capela, he should be able to work Looney in the paint.
The concern is when he has to step out and defend the three where reserve center Nemanja Bjelica is hitting a career-high 55.6 percent of his shots.
Gorgui Dieng could negate that but he hasn’t been consistent this season.
Perhaps we see a switch with Capela guarding Green who is also shooting a career-high from three at 37.5 percent but isn’t coming close to enough volume for it to be an issue. Collins is coming off a terrific performance and, statistically, has been one of the Hawks best defending the three-ball.
Opponents who’ve taken at least two attempts against him are shooting 34.7 percent.
Much of his success per those numbers is thanks to James Harden’s early-season struggles. Without that the number jumps to 40 percent.
Still, Collins’ athleticism might make him a better option with the Warriors stretch five, allowing Capela to sag off of Green and provide some threat of a deterrent at the rim for Steph Curry. He, like Trae Young, is adept at getting to the cup despite seeing a dip in his efficiency there.
Stopping Curry from beyond the arc is another task entirely.
That is why controlling the game versus a team that is fifth in pace (Atlanta is 15th) via the bigs, particularly in the paint, is paramount in this game.
One thing Young and the Hawks could stand to implement that Curry and the Warriors do is running him around a bunch of screens. Curry is notorious for his off-ball movement. Young has shown the same kind of wiggle to get free but is not off of the ball consistently enough to showcase it.
It could help with some of the efficiency concerns now that there aren’t as many whistles negating attempts. For what it is worth, the Hawks took both games against a depleted Warriors team.