The Atlanta Hawks need to play inside-out versus the Miami Heat

The Atlanta Hawks (19-25) will need to get a win on Friday if they want to at least split the regular-season series with the Miami Heat. Miami has already taken the first two meetings, outscoring them 92-60 in the paint combined. Atlanta had double-digit leads in both games only to ultimately fall.

It’s been a mix of poor defense, untimely frigid shooting, and Tyler Herro. He had 11 points in the fourth quarter of the last meeting, a 124-118 Heat win. Jimmy Butler returned for that and scored 23 points and played his usual tough defense.

Atlanta shot 30 percent from the floor and went 2-for-8 from beyond the arc in the final frame of that loss after entering the quarter 14-of-30.

They average 33.4 threes per game for the season but have shot 41.5 against Miami.

Onyeka Okonwgu’s offense could be the x-factor for the Atlanta Hawks vs the Heat

The worst part about the Hawks jacking up so many threes against the Heat is they simply aren’t falling when they need them. And, by that point, they have to chuck. The Hawks are shooting just 20.6 percent from beyond the arc in the clutch this season. They have missed their only two attempts in the clutch vs Miami.

They’ve shot 29.2 percent from deep in the first two meetings.

Atlanta is shooting 51.6 percent in the restricted area against Miami, far below their season numbers of 62.9 percent from five feet and in.

However that, along with most shots inside of the arc, has been their most efficient zone to attack when facing their rivals. Far better than the long ball has at least. On the season, that has been Miami’s weak spot in the defense with opponents shooting 64.7 percent.

They’re also allowing teams to shoot 43.5 percent from the mid-range compared to 38.1 percent or worse from beyond the arc. But they normally see 39-of-83 field goal attempts against them come from deep. The Hawks have averaged roughly 80 shots from the floor in the previous two meetings but 41.5 triples.

Fewer threes lead to fewer long rebounds and less transition offense (threes in particular) and fast breaks for the Heat, areas where the Hawks have struggled mightily this season.

That could also mean less scrambling to rotate onto Miami’s shooters or, when the Hawks are on offense, finding the perimeter matchups to exploit so they can attack the rim with adequate frequency.

Onyeka Okongwu has been all the talk lately for his stellar efforts against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns. But he did not draw the start in the last matchup with Miami after doing so in the first. He’s averaging just 5.5 points and 6.5 rebounds with 1.5 blocks, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 assists against them after the two losses.

In his last three outings, Okongwu is averaging 13.7 points, 6.7 boards, 3.3 blocks, 1.3 assists, and 1.0 steals.

He’s been starting in place of the injured Clint Capela who has been upgraded to questionable and is a game-time decision after sitting out the last six contests. It will be interesting to see what kind of minutes restriction Capela is on should he return for this one.

Regardless of whether it’s Capela, Okongwu, Gorgui Dieng, or the guards and wings (Trae Young had just three shots inside the paint in the last meeting) coming downhill off of screens, the Hawks have to play this game inside out.

It certainly hasn’t worked for them the other way so far. And, with a two-game winning streak going and a five-game homestand coming up, getting this win could go a long way.