The Atlanta Hawks (26-30) starters haven’t been as good as billed. It’s been a rough season as they find themselves in a two-game skid after having their second seven-game winning streak of the year. They are trying to right the ship while short-handed again with John Collins out through the All-Star break.
Except, this time they will only have 24 games to figure things out in time for the play-in tournament assuming they hold onto the final spot.
They head into this stretch as currently constructed because they felt they had the horses necessary to get it right. It was always a risk but it is also nearly identical to the group that reached the Eastern Conference Finals.
That may have been an overestimation by the Hawks.
The Atlanta Hawks have not been as strong at the top as we had hoped
Bleacher Report’s Andy Bailey released his post-deadline rankings of all the starting lineups in the NBA. Some were projected and the list is admittedly subjective. Bailey utilizes a combination of net rating and individual advanced numbers to add some context. Aside from that, he also takes advantage of roughly 70 percent of a season’s worth of the most advanced metric.
The eye test.
That doesn’t get any easier than when evaluating the Hawks who would need to go 20-4 to match last season’s win percentage.
"“When Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela are on the floor, the Atlanta Hawks score 116.5 points per 100 possessions. The problem is that they give up 115.1.”"
That isn’t too surprising. We recently spent a stretch of the winning streak praising the bench for keeping them in most games. Getting Bogdan Bogdanovic back to pair with a rejuvenated Danilo Gallinari led to some pretty encouraging performances even as the starters were barely holding up their end.
The article goes on to mention something that many have tried to blame Trae Young for, point-of-attack defense.
"“There’s little, if any, point-of-attack defense in this lineup. Theoretically, Hunter should provide some, but injuries and inconsistency have limited his impact on that end. Though Capela has had solid defensive seasons in the past, he’s not a Rudy Gobert-esque rim protector who can erase a multitude of defensive sins.That leaves an attack led by Young and Collins with the responsibility of winning shootouts on most nights.”"
We’ve said, the defensive woes are bigger than Young who has shown better effort more often than not. But he will always be somewhat of a liability on that end.
To that point, as Capela alluded to in his candid sit-down with The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner (subscription required), the Hawks were better suited to make up for those deficiencies last season.
The Hawks most-used lineup by minutes last season featured Capela, Collins, Kevin Huerter, and Young alongside Cam Reddish and finished with a minus-5.8 net rating. Their most used lineup by games saw only 12 fewer minutes, featured Tony Snell in Huerter’s place, and finished with a plus-11.8 net rating.
Their starting lineup has a plus-1.4 net rating in the article (minus-.01 per NBA.com).
It is just the sixth-highest in the Eastern Conference and there are several groups post-deadline without enough data yet like the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers.
The Miami Heat (plus-15.3) and Milwaukee Buck (plus-13.0) starting lineups have the highest net ratings on the list among East teams and still come in behind Brooklyn and Philly in the rankings.
When combined with everything else, the Hawks net rating is only good enough for ninth in the East in Bailey’s rankings and 17th overall. Subjective or not, this ranking compared to Atlanta’s actual 12th-place ranking in the conference shows just how disappointing this season has been for the Hawks.
The Hawks most-used lineup this season (Bogdanovic, Capela, Collins, Hunter, Young) has a plus-3.8 net rating while their most efficient has had both Bogdanovic and Huerter on the floor with Capela, Collins, and Young.
It currently has a plus-32.3 net rating.
If they are going to finish strong they will need their top players to be better than they have been to this point.