4 key Atlanta Hawks trends to keep an eye on after the All-Star break

The Atlanta Hawks (28-30) haven’t had the season many people, including us, thought they would heading into the campaign. After their run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, they seemed poised to take that next step with presumed better health. Well, that health took a while to hold up and has played a part in them being two games below .500 with a 28-30 record.

Things aren’t as off-track as they seem now, though, and not as bleak as they seemed a little over a month ago when the Hawks were mired in a five-game losing streak and hadn’t won at home since November.

That’s right, they went 0-7 at State Farm Arena in December.

Luckily, the Hawks sandwiched that disaster of a month with a 6-2 home record in November and a 6-3 mark in January. They are currently 3-1 at home in February.

One of their goals coming in the season was to earn homecourt advantage in the playoffs and make State Farm Arena a tough place to play for opponents. A 17-13 home record to this point isn’t quite there. But it is still a testament to how perception can change when your perspective does.

It seemed quite possible for some time, and even likely at one point, that they could finish with a losing record in their gym.

Thankfully, they are course-correcting.

Keep an eye on these trends from the Atlanta Hawks when they return to action

As 92.9 The Game’s Mike Conti pointed out on Twitter, the Hawks are taking a similar standing into the All-Star break as they did last season. They are doing better than last season in many ways.

They were 16-20 last season, four games below .500, and sitting 11th in the East. What’s more, they were two days into Nate McMillan’s tenure as ‘interim’ head coach following the dismissal of Lloyd Pierce. While the Hawks didn’t have to fire their coach this time around, one could argue the trade of Cam Reddish was in a similar vein of chemistry.

These are just a few of the trends from the first “half” of the season. But there are others that Hawks fans should keep an eye on when the team returns to action.

Hawks trend No. 1: Rest Vs Rust

One of the prevailing themes during the dark times this season was that we just had to wait for the Hawks to be at “full strength.” A record-setting roster count at the height of COVID absences and injuries lent credence to that notion. There was even a graphic that was going around regarding the time between their having a clean injury report.

Their current injury report has John Collins dealing with a heel injury and had Bogdan Bogdanovic questionable entering the win over the Orlando Magic.

But the Hawks have tested the theories on ‘rest versus rust’ this season.

We talked about their record on the second leg of a back-to-back ahead of the tilt with the Magic. That record now stands at 4-7 following their 130-109 triumph. But the Hawks haven’t been much better on the other end of the spectrum either.

They are currently just 5-7 when playing on more than one day’s rest going 3-5 when they sit for two days.

"“… I feel like it’s all about, not to be corny or cliché, but about believing in ourselves and doubling down and understanding we can do this.” – John Collins via Sarah K. Spencer/Atlanta Journal-Constitution"

Part of our constant mention about this season being adaptable to chapter form is that each one has been the result of shifting momentum. When they are winning, the Hawks can often look borderline unbeatable. But when they are losing, nothing works and they have looked completely out of sorts.

Their record with multiple days off plays into that. Especially when considering their record with one day in between games is 19-16. That’s still not great for a team that has championship aspirations. But it has been better than any other situation so far.

Keep an eye on them coming out of the break.

They are 2-2 when idle for three or more days and will have sat for eight days by the time play resumes on Feb 24 against the Chicago Bulls. Chicago has beaten the Hawks twice already this season and just added Tristan Thompson to its frontcourt.

The Hawks will play 25 more games coming off of one day’s rest, five back-to-backs, and four games with two days’ rest. They will not get another three-day mini-bye through the end of the season. This is why their contest out of the break (which would be a three-day rest game) is so important for setting the tone the rest of the way.

Hawks trend No. 2: They’re supposed to win

This is somewhat in line with the point on rest versus rust. The good news is that the Hawks have a winning record when they are the betting favorite this season at 18-17. As you might have guessed, that isn’t a particularly strong record. It puts them at just seventh in the East based on win percentage.

Now, a couple of the teams above them in those standings (the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic) have only played in three games where they were favored skewing their win percentages.

They also certainly don’t go by a team’s betting record when determining playoff standings.

Still, narrowly having a winning record as a favorite while being woefully below .500 as the underdog at 8-15 isn’t the mark of a great team. It might not even qualify for ‘good team’ status. Those teams, we told you, win the games they are supposed to at a high rate and are capable of making something happen when they are doubted. As it stands, only the Milwaukee Bucks have a worse record when they are the underdog.

Except the difference is that Milwaukee has only been the dog 12 times, about half as often as the Hawks, and are the three-seed as the reigning champs. Atlanta is clinging to the final play-in spot just 1.5 games ahead of the Washington Wizards.

However, they are even closer to the Charlotte Hornets and the ninth seed at just 0.5 games back.

The Hawks have just 11 of their 24 remaining games at home where they are 16-14 against the spread as opposed to 10-18 on the road.

That isn’t a direct correlation to their record as favorites or dogs but it does add some context to their outlook going forward when they would need to go 18-4 the rest of the way to match last season’s winning percentage.

On a positive note, they are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games.

The wildest stat of all could be that the Hawks haven’t covered the spread in any of their losses while failing to cover in two of their wins. They are also one of just four teams whose record against the spread is within two games of their overall record joining the Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors, and New York Knicks.

Hawks trend No. 3: Fitting in

One of the keys to the Hawks improved play from the middle of January on was moving Bogdan Bogdanovic to the bench. Already a strength of the team (when healthy), Bogi gave the bench a bonafide scorer while allowing the player to showcase his skillset unencumbered by fitting into the hierarchy of the starting lineup with Trae Young.

The Hawks are 7-5 since Bogdanovic returned from a knee issue and made the move to the bench and 8-6 with him coming off of the bench this season. That isn’t some incredible record by any stretch.

But they’ve gone from scoring 111.2 points before the switch was made (what we assume is) permanent to 116.1 since.

Bogdanovic has certainly made a difference.

He has averaged 16.2 points on 47.6 percent shooting while knocking down 41.6 percent of his triples in that span with 4.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. Bogi has four games with at least five assists including notching six in the win over Orlando. He’s also averaging 1.6 steals and has twice hit his career-high with four takeaways in a game in this time frame.

https://twitter.com/ATLHawks/status/1494388656056029196

More directly to the point, the bench has gone from 32.8 points to 42.5 points per game. Atlanta’s bench is ranked just 20th in scoring this season. But they were 22nd before Bogi joined them and have been the sixth highest-scoring unit in the NBA.

Last season, it was a move to the starting lineup that sparked him and helped fuel the Hawks run as he went from 10.2 points per game to 21.1 points down the stretch.

The Hawks went 18-7 with him as a starter over their last 28 games last season.

This year, his move to the bench has helped to further simplify things for a group that has admitted in many different ways that roles on the team haven’t always been as clear this year as they were last year.

Bogdanovic is a terrific offensive player but has been better this season when he can create for himself. He’s shooting 43.0 percent on pull-ups this season and just 38.8 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities, though, his effective field goal percentage is a bit higher in the latter situation.

That holds on his triples too with Bogi hitting 38.5 of his pull-up threes and 37.9 percent of the catch-and-shoot variety.

Hawks trend No. 4: It starts at the top

Trae Young is having an incredible season – like, historically good. The Hawks superstar is averaging 27.8 points, 9.3 assists, and 3.9 rebounds this season joining Luka Doncic as the only players to do so. They are just two of 14 players to have those numbers in NBA history.

If you add in his efficiency (45.6% FG, 38.3% 3P) he is all alone on the mountaintop

He and Oscar Robertson are the only players to record those numbers multiple times. This would be the second time for Young who rung up a 29.6-point, 9.3-assist, and 4.3-board line in the 2020 season.

The original Big O (not to be confused with Onyeka Okongwu) accomplished the feat eight times in his illustrious career.

Young will have the chance to catch up. But we can’t overlook the forest for the trees. His production this season has been just as much out of necessity as it has been his talent simply being on display. Young has been the lone bright spot for this team on offense far too often this season.

We went over the impact of Young’s 40-point outings following his 40-point, nine-assist effort against the Cleveland Cavaliers. But, for our purposes, the Hawks were just 2-2 when Young went scored 40 or more points up to that point.

Defensively, he’s given better effort.

Thanks to his physical limitations, though, it hasn’t always translated or shown up in the box score.

That has led to him catching a ton of slander for what many perceive as a lack of effort on that end. We have even said that the team’s defensive turnaround needed to start with him and John Collins. But the fact of the matter is the other Hawks players need to be more consistent or management might need to do a better job of building this thing out around him in the future.

Some have tried to argue that Young’s stats are more empty calories than anyone wants to admit. But there have been an innumerable amount of uber-talented players in the NBA that haven’t even been on the cusp of making history.

Young earned his first start in this year’s All-Star game after finishing with the second-most votes among East guards behind only Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan.