If the Atlanta Hawks (29-31) are able to maintain their hold on the final spot in the play-in tournament as the 10-seed or even improve their standing amid the one-game field, they will still be a tough out. Despite their consistent inconsistency, they still do many of the things that make for good playoff basketball, even given their struggles on a particular end of the floor.
With their play heading into the break and a convincing win over the Toronto Raptors on Saturday, the Hawks have put a little bit of space between themselves and the Bradley Beal-less Washington Wizards as well as the spiraling New York Knicks.
Of course, they still have to take care of business.
But there are a couple of signs that suggest they could make just as much noise in the postseason as last season, if not more, were they to make it.
The Hawks offensive dominance in the halfcourt suggests they are still a dangerous playoff matchup
It is no secret that the Hawks have one of the league’s best offenses. They rank ninth in points per game and sit sixth in overall field goal percentage. Atlanta also leads the league in three-point efficiency knocking down their triples at a 37.7 percent clip narrowly edging out the Chicago Bulls.
We also know about their porous defense that has given up an average of 111.6 points per game, good for 20th in the league.
And over the last two weeks, which is just four games thanks to the All-Star break, they have allowed 109.3 points per game which is seventh-best in the NBA in that span. They’re scoring 122.3 points per in that time which puts them third behind only the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks and, surprisingly, the San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio topping the list combined with one of the Hawks wins coming versus the Orlando Magic could put a damper on their outlook. Except this isn’t what points to their postseason outlook possibly being rosier than what has unfolded during the regular season.
The Hawks struggles with transition defense are well-documented.
Per Cleaning the Glass, which removes garbage time, they allow 3.9 PPP in transition on defense and see it at the 11th-highest rate while generating just 2.7 PPP (15th) in transition offense which they aren’t in much. Luckily, the game slows down in the postseason with transition offense dropping 0.6 percent league-wide during last year’s playoffs.
During the 2020 postseason, transition offense dropped from 14.7 percent down to 12.8 percent.
The rise in halfcourt sets plays right into the Hawks hands. They are second in the league in points per play (PPP) in half-court offense. And while their defense ranks worse this season, at least in the halfcourt the difference between this year’s group and last is just 0.5 points.
Even if that is not something to be ignored, it is also far from insurmountable.
Two wins off of their expected pace, the Hawks have a plus-0.6 point differential. But over those last two weeks (four games), they lead the league with a plus-15.6 point differential. That is 1.4 points better than the next best team in the East, the Boston Celtics, with the second-best offense in the NBA over that time trailing the Jazz by just 0.2 points per 100 possessions.
They are a full 5.0 points better than the next offense in that time, which is once again, the Celtics. The best part is the Hawks are 11th in defense over their last four weeks. That includes that win over Orlando. But it also includes the loss to the second-seeded Chicago Bulls.
Getting even mediocre defense throughout this season would have made a world of difference.
It does need to be said that the Milwaukee Bucks won the title last season while ranking 13th in halfcourt PPP during the postseason; one spot below the Hawks. However, the Los Angeles Lakers ranked third in 2020, the Toronto Raptors fifth in ‘19, and the Golden State Warriors were first or second for each of their last two championships.
Need one more? The Cleveland Cavaliers ranked first for their title run.
There are many variables at play and plenty of players who could stand to pick it up. But the Hawks still have the makings of a dangerous playoff team especially once they get John Collins back in to unlock the league’s third most-efficient lineup.
At last update, he was doing a light workout at Monday’s practice, “but no intense running“, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.
If they can keep these trends up through the rest of the regular season, they will maintain their hold on one of the four play-in spots. And once they reach the postseason, all bets are off as anything is possible for a team that gets hot at the right time.