Where have the double-doubles gone for Atlanta Hawks C Clint Capela?

So much of the Atlanta Hawks (29-31) success depends on their defense and, as a result, on center Clint Capela. For all of their inconsistency, the Hawks have been consistent in one advanced metric. Their offensive and defensive ratings rank second and 27th, respectively, regardless of whether they win or lose.

Technically, their offensive rating is tied for the league’s best in wins with the Utah Jazz. But the point stands that they are, for all intents and purposes, consistent in their inconsistency.

One of the few bright spots to the season has been Capela’s passing prowess. The Swiss big man is averaging 1.3 assists per game, 0.1 assists short of his career-high which he recorded in 2019 with the Houston Rockets.

There is one trend that could spell trouble for Capela.

Clint Capela’s lack of double-doubles highlights a deeper issue for the Atlanta Hawks center

Last season, Capela ranked fifth in the NBA with 48 double-doubles. He failed to record double-digit rebounds just seven times and wound up leading the league. There were just 13 occasions in which he failed to score double-digit points. Five times he failed to record at least 10 rebounds or points in the same game out of 63 appearances.

Capela has failed to grab at least 10 boards in 16 games this season giving him 24 double-doubles, 19th in the league. He’s also failed to score at least 10 points 26 times and 14 times he has failed to record double-digit points or rebounds.

They are 10-6 this season when he falls short on the rebounds, 15-11 when it’s his scoring that is lacking, and 4-5 when both don’t meet his high bar.

He put up eight points and nine boards in the win over the Toronto Raptors.

So why the fuss about his lack of double-doubles if it hasn’t had much impact on the outcome?

Because it could be the most visual representation of a lack of activity that is showing up in the one area that has dogged this team all season: defense. We’ve documented the need for everyone from Trae Young to Kevin Huerter and even De’Andre Hunter needing to step up.

It’s Capela’s turn. That is if it is still possible. He came into the season still healing from an offseason ankle procedure which he admitted sapped some of his mobility. Then he was one of the many Hawks to have COVID.  And, while he said a while back that he was starting to feel more like himself, the numbers don’t quite bear that out.

He’s scored single-digit points in 13-of-16 games since returning from a six-game absence with an ankle injury.

In that same span, Capela grabbed fewer than 10 boards in 11-of-16 games.

This season, teams are scoring 1.1 points more per 100 possessions when Capela is on the floor, per Cleaning The Glass. That is the worst mark of his career and puts him in the 43rd percentile among all players. Setting aside the defensive anchor increasing the opposing team’s output with his presence, it’s also a dramatic fall-off from his effectiveness last season.

Hawks opponents scored 8.5 fewer points with Capela on the floor last season, putting him in the 96th percentile.

Capela is a part of the Hawks most effective lineup. But, as we went over, that is tied more to Bogdan Bogdanovic replacing Hunter in the lineup. It is the difference in their defense going from the worst rating to the best among those with at least 100 possession.

This is going to be a big offseason for the Hawks and Capela.

The team has underachieved to this point and, barring another deep run in the postseason, serious changes will be in order.

They couldn’t deal him this season thanks to the two-year, $45 million extension he signed in the offseason. So the word that he was one of just two Hawks that were “off the table” in trade talks along with Young might need to be taken with a grain of salt. As we said at the end of last season, there aren’t many than Capela at what he does when he’s right.

His play down the stretch will be a critical aspect to keep an eye on. His defensive rating against the Raptors was 92.1, 21 points better than his season average.

But he saw just 18 minutes as the Hawks dominated the contest, leading by as much as 32 points at one point.  Second-year big man Onyeka Okongwu also had a solid outing in his 27 minutes with 17 points and seven boards.

We could be at a point where Capela cannot sustain the high level of play, on both ends, we have come to expect either due to his health, the play of those around him, or both.