Soaring Down South
Fansided

The Atlanta Hawks should avoid small ball come playoff time

By Joshua Buckhalter

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 04: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks goes to the basket against Kyle Kuzma #33 of the Washington Wizards during the second half at Capital One Arena on March 4, 2022 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 04: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks goes to the basket against Kyle Kuzma #33 of the Washington Wizards during the second half at Capital One Arena on March 4, 2022 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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Out of the many things the Atlanta Hawks (31-32) could do with their lineup and roster, playing John Collins at center should not be one of them. Sitting 10th in the East but in a three-way tie with the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors, they have a shot at owning the eight-seed and a .500 record for the first time since Dec 15 with a win over the Detroit Pistons on Monday.

The battle that should unfold between De’Andre Hunter and Pistons rookie and first-overall pick, Cade Cunningham, will be one to watch.

But the game kicks off the second-easiest slate through the end of the season.

As such, they might find themselves tempted to further explore some things with the lineups or rotations. But there is reason to avoid using at least one look that many were excited about the potential of coming into the season.

John Collins playing center for the Atlanta Hawks is fine in the regular season, not so much in the playoffs

The Hawks have a plus-0.5 net rating, per Cleaning The Glass. Their best lineup features the starters with Bogdan Bogdanovic in place of De’Andre Hunter and has a plus-32.0 net rating. Perhaps surprisingly, their next best lineup (by net rating) features Bogdanovic alongside Danilo Gallinari, Onyeka Okongwu, Lou Williams, and Delon Wright and is plus-28.0.

Lineups with Collins playing center in place of Okongwu, Clint Capela, or Gorgui Dieng have a net rating of minus-3.3 this season.

Last year, those looks had a plus-1.7 net rating but it is important to note that that was the regular-season rating. In the postseason run to the Eastern Conference Finals, those looks were minus-7.0 in 228 possessions.

But this season, those numbers aren’t quite what they seem.

There are 19 combinations that sport a positive net rating. Of those, seven have at least 25 qualified possessions together. Only four of those groupings are still possible following the trade that sent Cam Reddish and Solomon Hill to the New York Knicks in exchange for Kevin Knox and a draft pick.

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The one constant in all but one of the lineups with Collins at center to have a positive net rating has been Gallinari. Only a brief stint for rookie Jalen Johnson breaks up the veteran’s monopoly as Collins’ frontcourt partner.

This isn’t a surprise given what Gallo was able to do filling in for Collins as a starter for eight games.

It is, however, a bit of a surprise considering how against these looks we were after how they performed earlier in the season. But, in lieu of rim protection necessarily, the Hawks have leaned on outscoring teams when they go small. This has worked well in several variations this season.

It’s even worked with Wright at point guard instead of Trae Young.

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As is the case in general, the offense isn’t the problem. They put up points with Collins manning the pivot. However, they could once again be vulnerable to postseason offenses predicated on halfcourt sets and exploiting mismatches.

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