The Atlanta Hawks can beat the Pels at the free throw line
The Atlanta Hawks (35-35) could have a very simple path to victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. Their victory over the Memphis Grizzlies gave them four wins in their last five games and seven straight at home in State Farm Arena, Sunday’s venue. They are a half-game behind the Charlotte Hornets for what is likely the right to host their Play-In Tournament matchup.
It helps that the Hawks have one more game and a better divisional record than the Hornets, otherwise they would have a steeper hill to climb. Avoiding a road game should be their goal at this point.
They are just 12-22 on the road this season.
In this one, however, this one could be as simple as being aggressive from the outset even with both teams down some key contributors.
The Atlanta Hawks game plan should include a lot of attacking versus the Pels
The Hawks will be without John Collins for the fifth consecutive game as he deals with finger and foot injuries. They’ve gone 3-1 without him thanks to the resurgence of others such as Bogdan Bogdanovic who had 13 points and three steals in the fourth quarter of Friday’s win over the Grizzlies.
They won the first meeting between these two teams but both look vastly different now with the Pelicans adding C.J. McCollum at the deadline.
New Orleans has been without Zion Williamson all season but lost Brandon Ingram six games ago. After a four-game win streak that included beating the Phoenix Suns on the road and holding the Utah Jazz to just 90 points, they have given up 118.2 points per game.
They’ve gone 2-4 while allowing 130-plus points three times in that span.
Atlanta has gone 4-2 in that time frame and has allowed an average of 115.3 points per game with only two opponents reaching the 120-point mark in that time. That has been a magic number for the Hawks as they are just 4-15 in games where their opponent has surpassed that barrier.
They have a big advantage over a Pelicans team that is starting two bigs in Jonas Valanciunas and Jaxson Hayes with a third player in Herbert Jones that is probably better suited to play power forward than the small forward role his filling with Ingram out.
Hayes and Valanciunas in particular should be the Hawks targets on offense with both players fouling at a fairly high rate.
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Out of 245 players to appear in at least 50 games this season, Valanciunas ranks 219th while Hayes comes in not too far behind at 226th. Jones, a second-round rookie, is the best of the three checking 401st on the list.
The only healthy Hawks rotation player that has been more foul-prone is Onyeka Okongwu with Collins – whose foul rate is only worse than Jones’ – out of the lineup.
New Orleans could have a much harder time capitalizing on that than the Hawks will of their issues with fouling. They are shooting 78.3 percent from the charity stripe this season, 12th in the NBA. But they have hit just 71.9 percent since losing Ingram.
Meanwhile the Hawks – who rank fourth in free-throw percentage this year – have led the league in that span knocking down 88.9 percent of their attempts at the line. This will serve them well because, despite having a better foul rate on the year, Clint Capela has joined Okongwu in having a higher rate than his New Orleans counterparts.
Hayes has been especially sound with his foul rate dropping all the way down to 21.7 percent with Valanciunas close at 23.1 percent.
Still, look for the Hawks to get the ball moving as they did against Memphis.
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Also, watch for Bogdanovic and Trae Young (assuming he plays) to get downhill and into the teeth of a big Pelicans lineup. Bogdanovic used free throws to snap out of his slump in the last game while Young had 18 second-half points in the first meeting and attempted at least 10 free throws in three straight games before suffering his injury versus the Charlotte Hornets.