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Are the Atlanta Hawks really catching a break with Julius Randle out?

By Joshua Buckhalter

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JANUARY 15: Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks drives against De'Andre Hunter #12 of the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at State Farm Arena on January 15, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JANUARY 15: Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks drives against De'Andre Hunter #12 of the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at State Farm Arena on January 15, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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The Atlanta Hawks (35-36) will not see Julius Randle when they take on the New York Knicks on Tuesday. He’s out with right quad soreness. Atlanta won’t have Lou Williams at its disposal and could be without Bogdan Bogdanovic as well after he picked up a thigh contusion in Sunday’s loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

On the season, they are 9-9 without Bogdanovic and 6-14 when Williams sits.

They are also just 12-22 on the road and lost their only other appearance at Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day in a game they were missing Trae Young.

Now, as they try to get off of the schneid against a worse team, the Hawks might be inclined to take it easy in this matchup. That might be a mistake even against a Knicks team that has lost three of its last five games.

The Hawks are facing a desperate Knicks team that could experience addition by subtraction

Randle is averaging 20.3 points and 10.0 rebounds with 5.1 assists. Yet, he currently has a minus-10.6 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. Kemba Walker, who was reinserted into the lineup only to be shut down for the season a little over a month ago, is the only player with a worse net rating on the team.

New York may be just 30-39 with him in the lineup. But they are 0-2 in games he has missed.

He’s averaged 19.0 points, 9.7 boards, and 5.3 assists versus the Hawks this season and has scored 20-plus in each of the last two meetings.

Both of those losses also came on the road, though, and he hasn’t missed any time since New Year’s Day. They also haven’t been great home or away this season with 15 wins apiece in either situation. The Knicks also score more points at home but only by the slightest of margins.

Their biggest Randle-related issue, aside from his play, of course, has been interactions like this.

The Hawks score 6.4 fewer points on the road than at home and have lost three straight with their last road win coming at the beginning of March. We talked about how they struggled to begin the month and how those struggles were tied to Bogdanovic’s (since busted) slump. And Williams has played well with Young in the short time they’ve spent on the floor together.

They really need to get this win after Sunday’s disappointment and have done well to avoid being swept by the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors in recent weeks.

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Still, there are plenty of variables that could lead to needing another Herculean effort from Young, as well as key contributions from Kevin Huerter and De’Andre Hunter, even without Randle on the other side.

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