If you’ve been keeping up with the news, you likely will have heard, per Shams Charania of The Athletic, that the Atlanta Hawks are engaged in early trade discussions for their fan-favorite power forward John Collins.
When looking at it logically, there are plenty of reasons to explore trading Collins. For one, it’s something that the Hawks have been engaged in for some time now, signaling – potentially – some twinge of regret with the contract that they’ve handed him.
As Joshua’s previous article covering the news points out, Collins signed a $125 million dollar deal two offseasons ago but has seen his production on the floor drop ever since. He’s currently experiencing career lows in points, attempts, and assists per game on the worst shooting splits and lowest usage rates in his career as well.
Despite this, Collins is still having an excellent defensive season. His 0.7 steals and 1.4 blocks per game are both the second-highest figures of his career and his 0.6 defensive win shares are 20th in the NBA so far. He’s been a real factor in the Hawks having the league’s 10th-best defensive rating.
Thus, the team is in a tricky spot. Collins is at the lowest value of his entire career, making a tremendous return for the once-touted star unlikely, but he’s also an important cog in the team’s defensive rotations. Frankly, it’s highly likely the Hawks keep him, at least for now, and try to work on his mentality and mechanics. He certainly isn’t new to playing under the “for trade” tag.
This article, though, will seek to identify some possible trade fits for Collins and what the Hawks might be able to get in return for him.
Phoenix Suns
This, if you’re looking purely at rumors, is probably the favorite for potential Collins destinations. It’s no secret that the Hawks have been interested in Jae Crowder to bring some experience to their bench, and before him, Deandre Ayton. With the excellent play and ample depth that the Hawks have at the center position, an Ayton-Collins trade seems very unlikely.
When you consider that the Suns are hesitant to pay Ayton, it makes the likelihood of them taking on Collins’ contract – especially with him having a down season – fairly low. However, if they were to go after Collins, the Hawks would almost certainly ask for Crowder and more.
Jae Crowder is already 32 years old, but he plays tremendous defense that seems to be improving. His 3.4 defensive win shares were tied with Dejounte Murray for 20th in the NBA last year, and his 2.4 defensive box plus-minus was sixth-best in the league. On top of his defense, Crowder provides something the Hawks desperately need in three-point shooting. Whether he shoots 40% from three like in 2020-21 or 35% like in 2021-22, Crowder is sure to elevate the ability of the Hawks’ league-worst three-point shooting.
A potential trade might involve Collins for Crowder and a future first-round pick, or maybe Collins for Crowder and the injured Cam Johnson, Phoenix’s 26-year-old 6th man who can shoot efficiently from anywhere on the floor and plays solid defense.
Los Angeles Lakers
Not too long ago, a mock trade proposal was made that involved sending Collins to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for superstar forward Anthony Davis. While getting the Lakers to part with Anthony Davis, especially with the influence of LeBron James on the organization, may be difficult, there’s no doubt the Hawks could improve by acquiring him.
It’s no secret that both players could use a change of scenery. The Lakers sit at 4-10 in the Western Conference and quite possibly might be looking to acquire assets that give them a more stable future. They don’t have a first-round pick until 2025, and Davis, despite being in his physical prime at 29, has suffered numerous injuries and been unable to return to the production of his New Orleans Pelicans days.
At this point, both players are relative financial burdens on their team, so there isn’t the insane risk associated with Davis’ large contract if the Hawks were to swap Collins for him.
Collins may appeal to the Lakers as a project player seeing as he has the potential to be a 21-and-10 guy and is only 25 years old. A straight swap for the two players won’t get it done, though, considering Davis still averages 24.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game on 54% from the floor. Those are borderline all-star numbers.
In this deal, the Hawks would likely send over Collins, multiple first-round picks, and potentially another promising youngster like Jalen Johnson or AJ Griffin to get it done.
Utah Jazz
While it may seem like an outlier destination, there’s more to this than meets the eye. Aside from the fact that Collins was born in Utah, there are reasons for both teams to be interested in a deal.
The Hawks, who will be clamoring to get their hands on a shooter – especially if Bogdan Bogdanovic struggles upon making his return – might be interested in the resurgent Lauri Markkanen.
Markkanen is the same age as Collins and makes a decent amount of money at around $17 million annually until 2025. However, Markkanen is having a much better season than Collins and the Jazz sit at 11-6, second in the Western Conference. Markkanen’s 21.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, and a block per game on 35% from three and 52% from the floor are, collectively, career-best figures for him.
It may be difficult to pry him away from the Jazz, but keep in mind that the franchise is rebuilding. They recently traded long-time stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. They’ve also lost three of their last four games.
If that trend was to continue and the Jazz saw an opportunity to acquire the 25-year-old Collins and a first-round pick for Markkanen, it could be enticing. He would certainly immediately improve the Hawks’ three-point shooting, and his 0.6 defensive win shares would be nothing to scoff at.
There are plenty of other trade targets that the Hawks could be after, but Collins’ big contract – especially in regards to the teams over the salary cap – makes a lot of deals impractical. Such is true for a potential deal for the Brooklyn Nets’ youngster and shooter Cameron Thomas, for example.
If none of the deals listed above are appealing, that’s one of the many arguments to hold on to Collins. The simple reality is that moving him is difficult for numerous reasons. However, given the team’s glaring need for shooting and Collins’ abysmal 22.7% percentage from beyond the arc, a trade could become a necessity.