Ceiling, floor, and expectations for the Atlanta Hawks

Despite losing in the first round this past season, the Atlanta Hawks showed some encouraging signs moving into this upcoming season. After all, Quin Snyder took over late in the season in an attempt to resurrect a sinking ship. Snyder could have let Joe Prunty remain the interim head coach and take over the following season. However, Snyder took the challenge head-on and led the Hawks to a competitive series vs the Boston Celtics. Atlanta played its heart out and nearly pushed it to a seventh game.

Nevertheless, Atlanta has to be feeling good going into this season. The players know what they are getting from Synder and seem to have a positive relationship with their head coach. With Trae Young attempting to down the “coach killer” narrative, Synder must build a positive relationship with the Hawks star. It’s not just Young, however, every player that did exit interviews after the season had a positive review of Snyder. While Snyder did breed new life into the Hawks players and even fans for that matter, he still had a losing record of 10-11 in the 21 games he coached for Atlanta.

Regardless it is a small sample size and not indicative of what will transpire this season. With that said, what can we expect from a full year under Snyder? Atlanta has a lot of positive momentum built up from their series against the Celtics, but how can they apply it to this season? For the past two seasons, the Hawks have been fighting in the play-in tournament. Can the Hawks make a run at a top-six seed for the second time since 2021? A lot of questions are to be asked about this year’s Hawks team, but what are the expectations going to be like and how high can the Hawks soar in 2023-2024?

Ceiling, Floor, and where the Hawks stack up in the East

After going 41-41 in the 2022-2023 season, Atlanta is expected to be better than average in 2023-2024. But how high can the Hawks truly go? It isn’t unreasonable to believe that Atlanta can be a top-six seed in the postseason. In fact, they may be able to get up to as high as the five seed or even secure home-court advantage as the fourth seed. Looking at the other teams in the Eastern Conference, there is a path for the Hawks to possibly get the fourth seed. On paper, Atlanta has the talent and coaching, but how do they stack up with the rest of the Eastern Conference?

Let’s start with teams that Atlanta probably won’t be better than this season. It’s safe to assume that Boston and Milwaukee will grab the top two spots in the conference. They finished there last season and come back with better rosters this season. With the recent drama in the 76ers organization, it is possible they have a down year. James Harden is disgruntled and the Sixers could underperform with him in the lineup.

That said, Miami could be near the top of the conference once again. They underperformed last season, but if they can get Damian Lillard, Miami could run the table in the Eastern Conference once again. Jalen Brunson had a breakout season with New York and is expected to be very competitive this season. However, talent-wise, the Hawks stack up nicely here. Could we be in for another epic four vs five matchup between the Hawks and Knicks? It isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

While Atlanta can easily be as high as a four seed this season, the play-in tournament could also stare them in the face. At the end of the day, the Hawks are still a young team and could go through growing pains. Atlanta had a quiet offseason and didn’t really have the flexibility to improve the roster. As of now, Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter remain on the roster with no outlet to trade them. With the Hawks showing no real improvement with the talent on the roster, they could easily be average once again.

Like the Hawks, there are a lot of young teams in the Eastern Conference looking to take a leap this season. Of that group of teams, Indiana looks the most promising. Other teams like the Nets and even the Magic could make a run at the play-in tournament. Chicago came back with the same team as last season and so did Toronto so they could also make a run at the play-in tournament. The Eastern Conference is largely unpredictable and while the Hawks could be in the top-six, they could just as easily once again fall to the play-in tournament.

Quin Synder has a proven track record

What does Snyder bring to the table in his first full season in Atlanta? Let’s start with what Synder was able to do last season. Under Nate McMillian, the Hawks ranked 22nd in bench points and 14th in offensive rating (backdated to April 12th). Under Snyder, the Hawks’ bench production skyrocketed. Atlanta ranked 2nd in scoring and 1st in offensive rating. Snyder made it a point to feature the bench production in more of the offense.

Under Synder in comparison to McMillian, Atlanta was number one in points per game whereas they were 8th under McMillian. The Hawks’ field goal percentage also rose rapidly from 13th to 4th under Synder. The only category where Atlanta got worse under Synder was defensive rating and that remained a problem going into the playoffs. However, the outliers suggest that is bound to improve for the Hawks this season.

From the 2016-2017 season until the 2018-2019 season, the Utah Jazz under Synder finished top three in defensive rating in all of those years. While they finished just 13th in 2019-2020, they were right back near the top in that category in the 2020-2021 season finishing 4th that season. While a lot of that may have to do with the elite rim protection Rudy Gobert provided, it shows that Synder has the ability to coach one of the top defenses in the NBA. The year before being let go Utah ranked 9th in defensive rating in their last year under Snyder. Atlanta should and has to show improvement on defense if they want to make any progress this season.

With the offense already showing improvement, the defense will come eventually. It is hard not to think the Hawks will be better next season, but time will tell. The players clearly love Snyder’s coaching and what he brings to the table. Can the Hawks show improvement this season?

The expectations are low, but Atlanta has the talent and means to exceed their own expectations!