Clint Capela's true value & 2 other potential X-factors as Hawks host Bulls

Back-to-backs are brutal, especially when they result in as tough a loss as the Atlanta Hawks experienced versus the Detroit Pistons. But they must get right back to it in the second leg of a back-to-back against the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. 

Just one game behind the Hawks in the win column, the Bulls are not a daunting opponent nor one to overlook, though they are without the injured Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine.

Still, the formula for the Hawks in this one should be fairly simple: feed the bigs.

Hawks bigs could key easy victory over soft Bulls

Clint Capela and backup Onyeka Okongwu could be in for a big game if the Hawks feed them as often as possible. The duo combined for 15 points versus the Pistons and, with a bigger night offensively from Okongwu, they would have had more.

Capela is averaging his fewest points since the 2015-16 season, but he remains invaluable to the Hawks defensively. 

The Hawks’ defensive rating is 112.2 with Capela on the floor, per Cleaning The Glass.

That number skyrockets (bad) to 125.1 when he is off. Only Jalen Johnson’s 13.4-point swing is greater. Okongwu, Capela’s top backup and long viewed as his eventual successor, has an 8.5-point swing in the other direction.

The Hawks have a 124.1 defensive rating with Okongwu on the floor and a 115.6 mark when he is not.

Offensively, it is a different story entirely. 

Capela should be able to disrupt Bulls starter Nikola Vucevic with his physicality on both ends of the floor. And against a Bulls team that does not have a true rim deterrent, Okongwu could feast with the second unit against Jalen Smith. 

We can expand this to include Jalen Johnson and Larry Nance Jr. at power forward, where the former will see Patrick Williams and the latter could see a hodgepodge of assignments.

This is a positional matchup that the Hawks should win going away.

Still D-R-E…

The curious case of De'Andre Hunter continues and we still do not have any more clarity than we did on Friday when he led our X-factors.

Hunter performed when on the court this season, averaging would-be career-highs of 18.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists. With a small sample size of two games, it takes some of the jolt out of that line, though.

That Hunter is injured is not new or even particularly surprising. 

It is discouraging, though, especially in a tight game like the Hawks lost to the Pistons, where Hunter’s impact on both ends of the floor was sorely missed.

A bogus start for Bogi

From Hunter to Bogdan Bogdanovic, the message stays the same. The Hawks need their sixth man and sweet-shooting super-sub back on the court as soon as possible. Consider this: Bogdanovic and Hunter were two of the five Hawks to average at least 5.0 threes last season.

Bogdanovic and Hunter ranked second and third in three-point efficiency among that group of which only three members remain.

Trae Young is the other.

It is even more disheartening because Bogdanovic had a strong, extended run during the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics, winning bronze for his native Serbia. But it seems like the Hawks are paying the price for it now.

There has been as much explanation about Bogdanovic’s status as Hunter’s. With three days off following their tilt against Chicago, perhaps we get more information in the coming days.