The All-Star break is here, and the Atlanta Hawks are who most people thought they would be.
That is to say that the Hawks have hovered around .500 and in the Play-In Tournament race for much of the campaign. However, they are also within striking distance of a top-four seed, making the final stretch of the season paramount as they plan for this offseason.
Hawks Record: 26-29 (H:12-12, A: 14-17)
Eastern Conference Standing: 8th
The Hawks will return from the break with 27 games to further cement who they are as a team one way or another.
So far that is a team capable of going up against even the best but also losing to the worst.
Hawks All-Star Break Primer
Hawks Playoff Odds
As of February 14, ESPN gave the Hawks a 58.3% chance of making the playoffs. The outlet also gave the Hawks a 7.9% chance of making it to the Conference Semifinals, a 2.0 chance of making the Eastern Conference Finals, and a 0% chance of winning a title this season.
ESPN gave the Hawks an 85% chance of being in the Play-In, with an 11.4% chance of avoiding it for the first time since 2020-21, when they reached the ECF.
That was also the last time they made it out of the first round of the playoffs.
Remaining Strength of Schedule
Entering the break, the Hawks have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule based on opponent winning percentage, per Tankathon.
The Nos. 3 and 4 seeds in the East and the 1, 2, 4, and 6 seeds in the West are among the Hawks’ remaining games. Of that group, they only face the Indiana Pacers (No. 6 in the East) more than once with two matchups remaining.
The Hawks are 17-19 against teams with winning records.
However, they are 2-7 against those aforementioned opponents with a 7-15 mark against the Western Conference.
Injury Report
The Hawks know they will not get Jalen Johnson or Kobe Bufkin back at any point this season with both players sidelined by shoulder injuries. Their issues are concerning for different reasons, too.
Johnson’s torn labrum removed the Hawks’ second-best player from the starting lineup amid another award-worthy campaign.
It also marked the second straight season where injuries significantly limited his availability.
After an ankle injury – among other ailments – hindered Johnson last offseason, he vowed to do everything in his power to avoid similar issues in the future. That could bode well for his recovery from this latest issue, though his durability is once again a looming concern.
Bufkin is in his second NBA season. He is dealing with a shoulder issue that has plagued him since college and underwent surgery to address it.
The Hawks announced that Larry Nance Jr. suffered a fracture in his knee on February 12.
An unrestricted free agent after the season, Nance is looking at a six-week recovery. That puts him on track for a return toward the end of March and, perhaps, even the beginning of April. And because it is a knee issue, Nance will almost certainly need a ramp-up to get his wind back.
The Hawks announced Vit Krejci suffered a fracture in his back along with their update on Nance, and that the former will undergo re-evaluation in “three to four weeks.”
The regular season ends on April 13.
Trae Young was also listed with an Achilles issue, but that has been a constant for months and he has missed just four games all season. The bottom line is the Hawks should hope things stay the same through the break with Young and Zaccharie Risacher participating in the festivities.
Hawks 2nd-Half Outlook
The Hawks lost their final game before the break, but they had won three straight before that and four of six to close out the first “half” of the season. They will emerge from the break to face many of the teams in that gantlet of playoff teams.
However, the Hawks will end the regular season against some of the weaker teams in the league, including the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Portland Trail Blazers, and Utah Jazz.
As unenviable as it is, the Hawks are also built for the one-off style of the Play-In.
Where things could get tricky is if the Hawks make the playoffs and their opponent has time to gameplan specifically for them. That will likely expose some of the weaknesses that existed before the deadline and Johnson went down.
Predictions
Expect the Hawks to get Clint Capela back after failing to find a new home for him at the trade deadline.
However, it remains to be seen that he will suit up and risk injury with free agency looming.
Mouhamed Gueye also appears headed for a starting role down the stretch, logging two starts to one apiece for Dominick Barlow and Georges Niang since the deadline. Barlow started the Hawks’ first game after the deadline.
Gueye, though, started the Hawks’ last two games before the break. Perhaps Niang will take over the role when they return after having more time to jell with his teammates.
Gueye has flashed enough to warrant a look, though.
Young broke his trend getting the nod for his second straight All-Star appearance and his fourth overall. Look for him to finish the season strong, putting himself in contention for All-NBA consideration as his scoring increases and for Clutch Player of the Year.
Young averaged 30.9 PPG and 12.3 APG over the Hawks’ final seven games before the break, and he is the leader in total clutch points scored and in three-point efficiency among qualifiers.