Hawks 'top breakout prospect' projected to take home hardware

The Atlanta Hawks are eager to catch doubters by surprise this coming season.

To do so will take cohesion amid myriad changes to the roster. But it will also take steps forward from the incumbent players, and there might not be anyone better suited to do that than fourth-year forward Jalen Johnson.

Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus slotted Johnson as his No. 1 top breakout candidate from each team, and made an encouraging prediction for the former No. 20 overall pick (2021).

“It's easy to forget that Johnson was somewhat forgettable through his first two seasons. He already broke out last year to 16.0 points per game, but it wasn't noticed as widely as it should have been—probably because the Hawks weren't very good. Three players named Jalen earned most-improved votes (Williams, Brunson and Suggs), but none for Johnson,” Pincus wrote on October 11.

“When he jumps to over 20 points per game this season and Atlanta is more competitive than some expect, Johnson will earn MIP as this year's breakout prospect. He's still just 22, has three years of service, just 3,051 minutes logged, and averaged 9.3 minutes per game in the 2022-23 playoffs.”

That is really a two-fold prediction.

A leap to 20 PPG for Johnson would be ideal for the Hawks after trading Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans over the offseason. They still have trusted veteran Bogdan Bogdanovic, but there are plenty of question marks beyond that.

The Hawks have constructed a roster to insulate three-time All-Star Trae Young defensively. But they also must be sure not to overtax him.

That means the supporting cast must deliver to keep defenses honest.

Hawks' Jalen Johnson could cash in on season prediction

Johnson has flashed a ceiling far greater than a supporting cast member. And he has the approach to reach that ceiling as long as he can stay on the floor. For Johnson, the leap in production would be good. 

Taking home the MIP award could be a boon. Johnson is extension eligible until October 21. If no deal is reached by then, he will hit restricted free agency in the summer of 2025.

Predictions for Johnson’s next contract have ranged from the $125 million to $150 million mark.

A significant uptick in production when needed, his expressed commitment to improving defensively, and the hardware to show for it is a strong platform to negotiate from when the time comes.

Johnson would also benefit from the Hawks delivering on their optimism and stunning some teams projected to finish above them in 2024-25.

Pincus also listed Dyson Daniels and Kobe Bufkin as potential breakout candidates.

Bufkin was the Hawks’ first-round pick (No. 15 overall) in 2023. He was beset by injuries as a rookie and that trend continued into the summer. But he had an encouraging showing in the Hawks’ preseason opener and could play a big role inn Year 2.

Daniels was a key part of the Hawks’ return for Murray, and he bolstered that enthusiasm with a strong showing in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics and to open the preseason.

The Hawks could be dangerous if all three players enjoy breakout campaigns.