The Denver Nuggets are in cap purgatory.
After matching Spencer Jones' offer sheet and signing Lonnie Walker in free agency, Denver now finds themselves standing alone as the one organization surpassing the threshold of the second apron.
The Nuggets are drowning in the very concoction they created the last few seasons, and the Hawks may just be the only team capable of throwing them a lifeline - for a price, of course.
Denver's greatest contract mistake: Christian Braun
Rather than focusing on Peyton Watson - the most obvious trade candidate thanks to his extensive sign-and-trade saga of rumors that has heavily involved the Hawks - let's focus on another asset entirely: Christian Braun.
While Watson is still waiting on pen to be put to paper for his next contract extension (be it within Denver, or without), Braun already inked an unfavorable contract - or so it would seem.
Denver previously agreed to a five year, $125M extension with Braun that just became active, where Braun is set to earn an upscaling deal beginning at $21M this season, and ending at $28M in the 2030-2031 NBA season.
Braun's disappointing year was overshadowed by Peyton Watson's breakout last season amidst injuries to Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon (amongst others). With Watson proving he should earn more than Braun, Denver is at an impasse of sorts - move on from Watson, or sell Braun for much lower than expected to retain their youngster.
While Braun's contract isn't awful, such an extensive deal to a largely unproven player is dangerous, especially to other front offices without cap flexibility. Fortunately, Atlanta isn't amongst them.
Atlanta's unique cap situation makes Braun an enticing option
Thanks to Braun's contract, his value has never been lower. While other organizations may steer clear of such an extensive, hefty deal, Atlanta should be in the opposite boat - their greatest cap commitment being $30M/yr to Jalen Johnson, they can afford to take on a bit of uncertainty in Braun.
Atlanta could easily engage in a deal to acquire Braun, shipping off CJ McCollum's far more flexible one-year, $21M contract to Denver where they could very feasibly flip The President to a willing third team.
While Denver would no doubt be disappointed to lose Braun for essentially nothing, it would likely be worth it to retain Watson.
The question remains - why would Atlanta take on such an unproven, expensive asset in Braun? It's simple: the defensive metrics.
Christian Braun has become incredibly underrated
The Hawks have already formed (very arguably) the most fearsome defensive trio in the entire NBA this summer with Lu Dort, Dyson Daniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker ready to stifle all sorts of offensive schemes next season.
Christian Braun is widely known as a positive defender, but not necessarily anywhere near league-best. However, he earned bronze-medal honors in a perimeter isolation defense metric last campaign, just above Dyson Daniels at 4th, and below Stephon Castle and yet another Hawk, Lu Dort.
The Hawks could pair their elite defensive trio with a fourth option in Braun, with a fifth staunch, young defender waiting on the sidelines in Kingston Flemings. No other team in the NBA boasts anywhere near this level of perimeter lockdown ability, and in a league where on-ball denial is valued more and more preciously, Atlanta would be wise to stay ahead of the curve (and at cost, no less).
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