The Atlanta Hawks have the talent, depth, and balance to be a playoff team in 2026-27. Fresh off of winning 46 games and reaching the postseason as the No. 6 seed, Atlanta has improved an already deep rotation with the addition of an elite defender in Luguentz Dort and a sharpshooter in Aaron Wiggins.
For as strong as the Hawks project to be, there's one question that will decide whether or not they can contend: Will Jalen Johnson resolve his issues as an isolation scorer?
It's difficult to criticize Johnson considering he's coming off of a career year during which he led Atlanta to the playoffs. He posted career-best averages of 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 1.7 three-point field goals made while shooting at a clip of .489/.352/.788.
Johnson not only increased his volume in four significant statistical areas, but he also improved his three-point field goal percentage from .312 in 2024-25 to .352 in 2025-26.
Johnson's success as a scorer was largely influenced by his brilliance in transition. He averaged 1.21 points per transition possession and ranked No. 5 in the NBA in transition points per game. Unfortunately, he also averaged a mere 0.78 points per isolation possession.
As the Hawks look to scale their success and become a true contender, the question is simple: Can Johnson become a true go-to scorer?
Jalen Johnson struggled in ISO in 2025-26. Can he improve in 2026-27?
Johnson is one of the most dynamic offensive players in the NBA. This past season, he ranked in the 98th percentile in passing creation volume and the 94th percentile in passing creation quality, per Basketball Index. He also ranked in the 83rd percentile in on-ball gravity and the 86th percentile in off-ball gravity.
Flawed or not, Johnson's impact on team success is unavoidable as he orchestrates for those around him with a tremendous combination of volume and efficiency.
In order to make the leap to the ranks of the elite, however, someone will need to emerge as a top-tier scorer. For perspective: Each of the four Conference Finalists in 2026 had a player who averaged at least 25.0 points per game.
The lowest player on that list was Victor Wembanyama at exactly 25.0. He's also the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
Furthermore, all four players—Jalen Brunson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, and Wembanyama—are known for their skill and creativity in isolation. They can have full possessions dedicated to their scoring, particularly when the lights are shining brightest.
If Johnson can realize his potential as that caliber of scorer, then the Hawks will be a true contender. If he struggles to do so, however, then another player will need to fill the void if Atlanta hopes to contend.
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