The Atlanta Hawks have one more preseason game. And because it is on the second leg of a back-to-back, there is a chance the starters are done for the preseason. If they are (more on that later), the Hawks should come away feeling they have all the information they need about their next moves.
Hawks general manager Landry Fields said the Hawks’ roster was a work in progress, and two players who may not have been in mind when he made those comments should be now.
Clint Capela’s time with the organization should be close to ending.
This is not a declaration that Capela cannot contribute to a winning situation, nor that that cannot happen with the Hawks. Their respective tenures do not have to end tomorrow either, and that is not expected to be the case anyway.
Instead, this is simply a suggestion that the Hawks embrace what is becoming increasingly clear in recent seasons.
Capela is on the decline.
He exited the Hawks’ loss to the Miami Heat on Wednesday after six minutes and was ruled out due to ankle soreness. Capela started 73 games in 2023-24, and he has surpassed the 70-game mark twice in the past three seasons and 60-plus games for four straight years.
In fact, Capela has made fewer than 63 appearances in any season just twice in his career, so concerns about his durability are slightly overblown.
He has the ninth-most starts among centers since entering the league in 2014-15, per Stathead.
What is also clear is that neither he nor teammate De’Andre Hunter is increasing their trade value. They are what they are at this point in their respective careers: useful players who have significant salaries and injury histories. Hunter is locked up through 2026-27.
For Capela, the compounding issues are age and the fact that he is in the final year of a two-year, $46 million contract.
However, the Hawks are not the same team without him.
The Hawks are 142-133 with Capela in the lineup and 19-24 without him since he arrived in 2020. Their record with him over the last two seasons (68-70) is still better than without (9-17), leaving the Hawks between a rock and a hard place.
Whereas the Hawks seemingly already have a replacement for Hunter in rookie No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, even if that is down the road, there are questions behind Capela.
Onyeka Okongwu’s preseason absence puts Hawks in bind
Onyeka Okongwu has progressed every season, even adding the three-ball to his arsenal in recent offseasons.
An active, athletic defender, he offers more switchability than Capela, particularly on the perimeter. But if Capela is undersized – he is, especially against the top bigs in the league – Okongwu is essentially a small-ball center.
He has also had durability issues.
Okongwu has appeared in at least 60 games once – last season – in his career. He has not participated in any preseason games so far.
He underwent a procedure for a toe injury in April and has only been deemed as “ramping up” when his health is inquired about. Okongwu seems unlikely to go in the finale given the quick turnaround.
That is an unfortunate development for the Hawks.
That has taken away at least some of their ability to evaluate where they feel they are at the position amid a potentially opportune time to continue their youth movement and trade Capela.
More chances will arise – another team may suffer an injury, creating a need that does not necessarily exist right now. But the Hawks could find it more difficult to part with Capela as they get into the season if predictions hold true.
They are expected to again contend for a playoff spot.
However, many expect them to have to navigate the Play-In Tournament field to get there. How soon the Hawks’ fate becomes clear is key. But change is hard without all data points.
Hawks put a scare into Heat
The preseason is not the regular season. And by all accounts, the Miami Heat planned to play their starters deeper into the contest coming in.
Still, they surely did not expect to face a 69-66 deficit at halftime.
What’s more, they almost certainly did not expect it to come while the Hawks were shorthanded and shooting 13-for-19 from beyond the arc in the first two quarters. Miami still shot 40% from beyond the arc.
That is an untenable mark if the Hawks want to win more games this coming season than they did in 2023-24.
But the turning point was a 37-15 third quarter with their backups versus the Heat starters.
Down Risacher, Okongwu, and Bogdan Bogdanovic to open the game, this was an encouraging showing for the Hawks whose depth was certainly in question after their loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in their second preseason outing.
Hawks living by the three, so…
It stands to reason that three-point shooting will tell the tale of many Hawks games again this season. They ranked second in attempts and faced the ninth-most deep attempts per game in 2023-24.
Through three preseason games, the Hawks have attempted the ninth-most threes and faced the 11th most.
Their attempts should rise during the season with Bogdanovic, Hunter, and Risacher playing.
The attempts faced are where having Hunter, Risacher, defensive stud Dyson Daniels, and a more defensively-focused Jalen Johnson must pay off for the Hawks. If their offseason shift does not take, they will quickly find themselves at or near the bottom of the standings.
They were 13-19, snapping their four-game losing streak on New Year’s Eve 2023 as the calendar turned last season.
The Hawks rank 11th in three-point efficiency in the preseason.
The good news for the Hawks is that their opponents rank 17th. If that is a sign their defensive skew is taking, it would be a boon. The problem is, when those attempts inevitably fall, will the Hawks have the firepower to (efficiently) keep up?
Hawks should pull plug starters for preseason finale
The Hawks will have one week between their preseason finale against the Oklahoma City Thunder and their regular season opener versus the Brooklyn Nets. They can use that time to get as healthy as possible, which, hopefully, will result in Okongwu’s return to the rotation.
The starters played in the Hawks’ preseason finale in 2023-24.
Given that they have had to manage injuries already, it might be wise for the Hawks to take the additional day for extra rest.
Moreover, it is wise to avoid taking any undue risks with players on this roster when there is still some uncertainty about how many of them will finish the season wearing a Hawks uniform. It would be tragic for a player they are considering moving to get injured in a meaningless outing.