Before the start of the season, ESPN mocked Atlanta at 4th in the East, lofty expectations that would have scored the Hawks homecourt advantage in their first round battle. Unfortunately, not only have the Hawks faced undue adversity, but three teams have shockingly leapfrogged everyone else in the standings.
The Detroit Pistons lead these three at the top of their conference in the midst of a 13-game win streak, on the back of their all-star guard Cade Cunningham. The Pistons have an improved roster top to bottom (with a significant coaching upgrade to boot), there's few things they're doing wrong, and it's clear that they're here to stay.
The Miami Heat will always be a competitive roster with Eric Spoelstra at the helm, but they've taken the next step this year, with an incredibly creative and fast-paced offense suiting their roster perfectly. Frighteningly, they only just got Tyler Herro back from injury last game. Miami, sitting at 2nd in the East, is looking like a legitimate contender once again.
Finally, the biggest surprise of all - the 3rd seeded Toronto Raptors. While many experts around the league saw them as lottery contenders for the Dybantsa/Peterson/Boozer jackpots, Darko Rajakovic had different ideas. Their lengthy, versatile squad is making many contenders - including Atlanta and Cleveland - look silly.
With these surprises flanking the existing powerhouses in Cleveland, New York, and (albeit underperforming but unequivocally talented) Orlando, the odds that Atlanta will secure a top seed are seemingly dwindling.
Will getting Trae back be enough to move the needle for Atlanta?
The Hawks, of course, have a not-so-secret weapon that is just waiting to ignite the rest of Atlanta's already competitive roster. The question is, will it be enough to make up the difference that will inevitably grow larger and larger each game Trae misses?
While Trae's absence has no doubt made the Hawks’ offense sluggish and prone to stagnating in clutch situations, that's not the entire picture of having the star on the floor. The team's defense has improved noticeably since Trae went down in early November - turns out, having an all-defensive guard fill the majority of Trae's minutes isn't so bad (at least, on one end of the floor).
Young is simply such a polarizing presence, both on and off the hardwood. While his elite offensive creation can take the squad to new heights in the halfcourt, the fact that he's a defensive liability can be extremely difficult to look past when analyzing the Hawks’ win tally at the end of the year.
Will getting Trae back help Atlanta’s playoff push? No doubt. But it may not be enough to leapfrog the three surprise teams and the three established juggernauts out East when it's all said and done. The road to a deep playoff run is looking scary, but not impossible.