Hawks’ potential first-round matchup will be decided by one vital strategy

The playoffs loom large for the Atlanta Hawks, boasting a squad that has looked as strong as any in the NBA in the month of March.

The Hawks have played their way into the 6-seed, sitting above both the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat, falling into the play-in tournament. It almost brings a tear to the eye that the Hawks and Bulls have deserted their longtime play-in running mate, the Miami Heat, in the SoFi tournament, but it's on to the lottery for the Bulls and on to bigger and better things for Atlanta.

The Hawks are on track to face the 3-seed as a reward for escaping the play-in, which almost seems worse once you look further into the rosters of each team. The battle-tested, red-hot New York Knicks are anything but a gift to play in the first round, and will likely spell a quick and painless demise for the Hawks if they match up with the near-superteam in April.

Thankfully, there's an extremely easy, extremely efficient way to battle against the Knicks, something that the Hawks haven't taken full advantage of during their regular season duels thus far this season.

New York’s kryptonite: Jalen Brunson’s defense

The New York Knicks have an incredibly obvious Achilles’ heel. Teams that attack Jalen Brunson in pick-and-roll actions see a surprisingly linear increase in winning percentage during the 2025-2026 season.

The only outlier found here is the Indiana Pacers, who are a snake without a head, if there ever was one (wishing Tyrese Haliburton a speedy recovery for an inevitable return this October). Outside of Indiana, though, it's clear that teams that attack Brunson a lot more often tend to win a lot more often.

The Hawks find themselves squarely in the middle of this trend, attacking Brunson in PNR actions about 14% of possessions, approximately 1% more than league average. 

It should be noted that the graph demonstrates total wins for the year, rather than simply head-to-head battles with New York. That being said, it's a clear indication that savvy coaches and serious organizations take advantage of opposing teams’ weaknesses to persevere in their own winning, while weaker coaches/organizations tend to miss the obvious.

If Atlanta has any shot at pulling off such an upset if it materializes come April, it would do them well to wisen up to the growing pattern in the league: attack Brunson, and attack him often. Look for a tsunami of Jalen Johnson and anyone PNRs attacking Brunson possession after possession in April, potentially granting Atlanta yet another upset playoff series victory against the New York Knicks.