No hyperbole is necessary when saying that the Atlanta Hawks are inching closer to one of the most important decisions in franchise history. Trae Young will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2026, with a $48,967,380 player option he's widely expected to decline for the 2026-27 season.
With this in mind, the Hawks have less than a year to decide whether or not Young factors into their long-term plans—and who they'll replace him with if he doesn't.
Atlanta has spent the past five seasons toeing the midway line, with just two examples of severe pendulum swings. It went 41-31 and reached the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, and finished at 36-46 in 2023-24.
In the three other seasons, however, it's amassed records of 43-39, 41-41, and 40-42—epitomizations of how difficult it's been to make the leap.
Young is by no means exclusively at fault for the Hawks' lackluster results, which include two consecutive seasons during which they've missed the playoffs. As the franchise player due for a max-level salary, however, his fit alongside a young team flush with up-and-coming talent has become a conversation.
Unfortunately, the right answer for the Hawks is likely one that will be decided upon during the 2025-26 season—when Young will have the time to make the decision for them.
Can Hawks contend with Trae Young? If not, who's his replacement?
Young is production personified. He's averaged at least 24.2 points and 10.2 assists in each of the past three seasons, and has posted marks of 26.5 points and 10.2 assists since 2019-20—absurd statistics for even one season, let alone a six-year stretch.
That production is a testament to the type of talent the Hawks would be giving up on if they were to opt against re-signing or extending him.
The hurdle facing the Hawks, however, is that they're in the midst of a youth movement that's flush with captivating young players. Dyson Daniels, for instance, is the reigning Most Improved Player and a 2024-25 finalist for Defensive Player of the Year.
Jalen Johnson, meanwhile, looks the part of the prototypical All-Star modern forward after averaging 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 block per game.
Throw in Zaccharie Risacher and the Hawks have a strong young core with untapped potential to explore. The question, however, is simple: Are they best suited to develop alongside a ball-dominant point guard?
If the answer is no, then another question arises: Would the Hawks find more value in trading Young than continuing to build with him?
It's unclear what Young's market value currently is, but a team looking to pair Young with their resident superstar may be willing to buy high. In that scenario, the Hawks could continue to build along their current timeline and maximize the value their current star has in 2025-26.
With the Hawks going all-in on what may be Young's final season in Atlanta, it appears unlikely a resolution will arrive until the 2025-26 season is in full swing.