Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks still need just one win to reach the playoffs, getting back after a one-year hiatus. However, they are simultaneously one loss away from having their season ended following their loss to the Orlando Magic in the first round of the Play-In Tournament.
Atlanta will face the Miami Heat in Round 2 of the Play-In.
The Heat will have a worse record than the Hawks regardless of the outcome. However, they would leapfrog Atlanta, putting the latter in the lottery.
The Hawks owe their pick to the San Antonio Spurs from the Dejounte Murray trade. And since playoff teams cannot also be in the lottery, the best way for the Hawks to avoid any chance of sending what could become the No. 1 overall pick to the Spurs.
In that scenario, the Hawks would need the Memphis Grizzlies to beat the Dallas Mavericks.
That way, the Hawks and Sacramento Kings – more on them shortly – would coin flip for 13/14 rather than 12/13.
The No. 13 overall slot has a 5.7% chance of landing in the top four and a 1.2% chance of being No. 1 overall, per Tankathon. At 12, those chances are 6.2% and 1.3%. The No. 14 slot has a 2.4% chance of giving up a top-four pick and a 0.5% chance at No. 1.
The bottom line for the Hawks is to win and make the playoffs, avoiding their pick being in the lottery.
Kings’ loss puts incoming pick in danger
The Kings also lost in Round 1 of the Play-In, falling to the Mavericks and putting themselves in a win-or-go-home situation like the Hawks face.
A win would have kept them alive for the playoffs and kept the possibility that they avoid the lottery on the table. The Kings owe the Hawks their 2025 first-round pick from the Kevin Huerter trade in 2022, so long as it falls anywhere from No. 13 to No. 30.
Obviously, that means the Hawks would prefer to avoid flipping a coin for 12 or 13.
They certainly do not want to face a worst-case scenario of giving up and missing out on picks that could land in the top two slots in the same draft.
It is hard to miss what one never truly had. Still, that scenario would be vicious salt in the wound for a Hawks team that will be looking for silver linings as they head into an offseason full of uncertainty.
They still have a chance of missing out on Sacramento’s pick as it is.
Minimizing their exposure to such a deflating potential outcome should be additional fuel for a team that came out flat in their first Play-In game this postseason.