The Atlanta Hawks bowed out of the postseason before reaching the playoffs, falling in back-to-back games to the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat.
Both teams are now either on the brink of elimination (Magic) or have already been sent home in a historic fashion (Heat), and it is fair to wonder if the Hawks would have fared any better in an opening-round series against the Boston Celtics than Orlando or the Cleveland Cavaliers than Miami.
The Hawks went 2-1 against both teams during the regular season.
They were either first or second in win percentage against the Eastern Conference and were among the few teams with multiple victories against them.
Only the Indiana Pacers can claim similar feats. The NBA playoffs are also very much tied to matchups, and the Magic also went 2-1 versus the Celtics. Both the Heat and Magic went 1-2 versus the Cavaliers.
So, how would the Hawks have fared?
Hawks’ deficiencies might have shined brightly on big stage
They were not particularly competitive against the Magic in Round 1 of the Play-In Tournament, their fourth straight trip to the quasi-postseason.
And while they performed better against the Miami Heat, the Hawks still headed into their second straight offseason without having gone to the playoffs. Would they have been able to withstand the playoff approach the Cavs and Celtics would have brought?
In a seven-game series, teams can and will pinpoint a weakness and wear it out.
For the Hawks, their lack of perimeter defense, despite the presence of Dyson Daniels, would have been difficult to navigate.
The Hawks gave themselves a boost in three-point shooting, going from 24th at 34.6% before the trade deadline to 37.8% and a fourth-place ranking after it with the additions of Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, and Terance Mann.
Their defensive rating worsened from 113.7 (16th) to 116.7 (20th).
However, the Hawks’ offensive rating improved 110.7 (23rd) to 118.9 (7th), and their net rating improved from minus-3.0 to plus-2.2.
It also matters how a team gets its points. The Cavs, owners of the best record in the Eastern Conference, overpowered the undermanned Heat. Meanwhile, the Celtics have forced a great defensive team in the Magic into leaning on their weakness: three-point shooting.
The Hawks could have easily been in either team’s place. They could have also struggled with the Cavs’ length in the frontcourt. Ditto for the Celtics.
Both teams could have tried to blitz the Hawks into submission.
It is all hypothetical, and far from an if-then scenario. It is also a reminder of what awaits the Hawks in a postseason setting and should be informative as Atlanta first searches for a new president of basketball operations, and then further fine-tunes its roster.